when did missouri cease being a swing state?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

2012. And since there are so few data points we can't really say for sure. I expect that it'll be a little closer in 2016, but I think that 2012 will end up being the year it ceased to be a swing state.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It hasn't.  Remember that McCain only carried it by a few thousand votes in 2008, and although Romney carried it in 2012, that doesn't mean much.  It takes much more than one or two elections to change the political makeup of a state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mizz is trending like the rest of the South, Dems don't need it in order to win. Ohio and battleground SW is all we need. If needed, Hilary can win AZ should McCain retire.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Hillary will win here, especially if Cruz or Paul is the nominee.

[Suburbia]

The only Democrats I can see winning MO is Hillary Clinton and Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer's populist and real guy approach fits well in Southwestern Missouri especially in the Ozarks. O'Malley, Biden and Cuomo, I don't know if they can win MO.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Even if a Democrat carries MO, it will be by a 50-49 margin at the very most, hardly much of a victory. I wish we could get some MO polls for 2016, but we won't for awhile.

[GaussLaw]

The only Democrats I can see winning MO is Hillary Clinton and Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer's populist and real guy approach fits well in Southwestern Missouri especially in the Ozarks. O'Malley, Biden and Cuomo, I don't know if they can win MO.

SW won't vote for a Democrat.  No way.  It's been consistently GOP since the beginning of the 20th century. 

SE Missouri on the other hand, you might be right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Somewhere between 2004 and 2008.

[Rockefeller GOP]

As has been said, we can't tell for sure yet.  Fact is that rural White and rural Southern Democrats simply didn't support Obama, and that has led to margins of defeat for Democrats in states like MO, WV, KY, LA, AR, etc. that were not common before.  IMO, we'll have to wait until 2016 to see if that is a trend that's here to stay or if it had more to do with Obama.

[JRP1994]

For context, here is how Missouri margins have trended in the past few elections:

1988: D+3.75%
1992: D+4.59%
1996: R+2.22%
2000: R+3.86%
2004: R+4.74%
2008: R+7.39%
2012: R+13.22%

[DS0816]

For context, here is how Missouri margins have trended in the past few elections:

1988: D+3.75%
1992: D+4.59%
1996: R+2.22%
2000: R+3.86%
2004: R+4.74%
2008: R+7.39%
2012: R+13.22%

1988 was the first election in which a winning Republican carried all Old Confederacy states above national margin. (1972 was a harbinger: Richard Nixon's 49-state re-election had him carry all eleven states of the Old Confederacy above his national R+23.15 while his party still had its base states in the north. He carried numerous then-base states under his national margin. It was a deviation from that period's norm. This was also true with Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide from Election 1964. The 1972 Nixon and the 1964 Johnson would have been expected to carry their party's base states, up those years, above and not under their national margins.) The Democrats had only one state underperform, from their "Blue Firewall," with Bill Clinton's re-election from 1996: Oregon, which was D+8.09 while Clinton was re-elected nationally by D+8.52. (The 1996 Clinton even carried New Hampshire above his national number.) So the 2000s helped to solidify, and certainly Barack Obama carried all "Blue Firewall" states above his national margin.

Those numbers from Missouri tell us, bellwether or not, it tilted to the Democrats when the Democrats had their base states in the Old Confederacy. And, with the realigning of base states for likewise realigning parties we've come to recognize as the current status, Missouri has since tilted to the Republicans who now have their base states in the Old Confederacy.

In all this analyses, one can say that no state will be a bellwether forever. And Missouri is such an example of that. It used to be the Republicans needing a lot of rope to pull it in. (It flipped on Dwight Eisenhower, re-elected nationally in 1956 by a margin of R+15.40, as all of Adlai Stevenson's six other carried states were in Old Confederacy.) It is now the Democrats who need to have a lot of rope to pull in Missouri.

[⛄]

It has never ceased being a swing state.

[Suburbia]

An interesting article about Missouri's role in 2016.
http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/missouris-position-and-importance-2016-presidential-contest-air

[Ebsy]

For context, here is how Missouri margins have trended in the past few elections:

1988: D+3.75%
1992: D+4.59%
1996: R+2.22%
2000: R+3.86%
2004: R+4.74%
2008: R+7.39%
2012: R+13.22%

I don't know where you are pulling that 2008 number out of. John McCain won by 4000 votes.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

For context, here is how Missouri margins have trended in the past few elections:

1988: D+3.75%
1992: D+4.59%
1996: R+2.22%
2000: R+3.86%
2004: R+4.74%
2008: R+7.39%
2012: R+13.22%

I don't know where you are pulling that 2008 number out of. John McCain won by 4000 votes.

He means MO was 7.39% points more Republican than the nation as a whole. 

[VPH]

I don't see Hilary winning Missouri in 2016, though she will be competitive there.

I think she'll outperform Obama 2012, maybe finishing right where Obama did in 2008.

[bobloblaw]

It shifted away in 2012, but how much of that was Obama and/or other factors is debatable.  I think we need to wait till 2016 to see if how much a shift that really is. 

The reason MO isnt a bellweather anymore is because the demographics of MO are the same today as they were in 1980. 83% white 13% black which BTW was the same as the USA then. MO has a relatively smaller immigrant, Asian and Hispanic population.

[libertpaulian]

It's still a swing state.  It has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator.  In 2008, President Obama only lost it by 3,500 votes.  Although it did vote for Mitt Romney in 2012, it also re-elected Claire McCaskill.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Guys, if you consider VA to be a "lean or safe Democratic" state, you can't seriously call MO a Toss-up.