Which states will fully legalize Same-Sex Marriage in 2014 and 2015?

[Blue3]

Which states will fully legalize Same-Sex Marriage in 2014 and 2015?

(Assume no U.S. Supreme Court decision.)

[ElectionsGuy]

From most likely to least likely

1. Oregon
2. Colorado
3. New Mexico
4. Nevada
5. Pennsylvania
6. Michigan
7. Wisconsin
8. Virginia
9. Ohio
10. Florida

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oregon is already on the ballot box, and I would be surprised if that didn't pass.
Colorado could easily legalize at the ballot box, too.
I expect the New Mexico Supreme Court to fully legalize soon.

[PJ]

The top 4 states. Especially Oregon.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The first four.

[Frodo]

The first four.

[TNF]

Oregon, Colorado for sure.

None of the others.

[RedSLC]

I consider it very likely that voters in Colorado and Oregon will repeal their bans on gay marriage next year.

I think that voters in Nevada will likely approve a referendum to get rid of the ban next year as well, but it won't make gay marriage legal, because in that state referendums need to be approved twice in order to become law.

As for the rest of the states, nearly all of them need the legislature to approve a ballot measure before it can come to a vote. Considering that nearly all of the legislatures of the remaining states are republican-dominated, I don't see this happening as soon barring a court decision.

[Gass3268]

Nevada will take until 2016. In order to get a referendum to the voters they have to pass it in two consecutive legislative sessions. I could see Michigan and Ohio passing it through an initiative and Pennsylvania through the courts.   

[publicunofficial]

New Mexico by court case, and Oregon/Colorado by ballot.


Michigan, Arizona, and Ohio are toss-ups.


Florida (60% barrier on amendments) and Wisconsin (Can't be legalized until Dems take control, which can't happen until at least 2018)

[JacobNC]

Seeing as the Republicans are pretty much locked in to a 2/3 majority in the Virginia House of Delegates, it's probably gonna take a court decision for gay marriage to be legalized there within the next decade.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

BTW, California will likely have a veto referendum about transgenders use of bathrooms on the ballot, thanks to the same people who backed Prop. 8.

http://ballotpedia.org/California_Referendum_on_AB_1266,_Transgender_Student_Participation_Based_on_Gender_Identity_(2014)

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Not PA.

[TDAS04]

Oregon, New Mexico, and Colorado. 

[henster]

I see a lot of gay marriage initiatives on the ballot in a lot in 2016. You always should put these high profile ballot initiatives in Presidential years because of the high turnout. I see it being on the ballot in CO, NV, NM, and MI. 

[Thomas D]

Oregon & New Mexico.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I see a lot of gay marriage initiatives on the ballot in a lot in 2016. You always should put these high profile ballot initiatives in Presidential years because of the high turnout. I see it being on the ballot in CO, NV, NM, and MI. 

True, I think most states would wait until 2016 to get it on the ballot. Oregon should definitely legalize it in the 2014 election, and I can't imagine the NM Supreme Court is going to avoid the issue.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

OR, NM, CO and maybe MI. I'm not sold on Nevada yet.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, anyone who would have been crazy enough to guess Utah would have been wrong since it's still 2013. LOL.

[morgieb]

Change my vote to 'all of them'. It's hard to not see the Supreme Court forcing SSM nationwide in the next 2 years given how Utah's ban was over-turned.

[Blue3]

Well this thread has been hilariously outdated before I even thought it would begin!

[Cryptic]

Change my vote to 'all of them'. It's hard to not see the Supreme Court forcing SSM nationwide in the next 2 years given how Utah's ban was over-turned.

This.

[RosettaStoned]

The first four.

[Nhoj]

Well since Utah happened, I'm going with Mississippi next.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado.