Tom Latham retires!

[The Arizonan]

Are we going to finally see a congresswoman from Iowa in 2015?

[Zioneer]

Are we going to finally see a congresswoman from Iowa in 2015?

We could see two; if I recall correctly, the Dem frontrunner for Bruce Braley's district is a woman.

[badgate]

Did a quick glance at Des Moines politicians and Frank Cownie, Des Moines Mayor, could run as a Dem. He is in his mid-60s though. Christine Hensley, also mid-60s, would be good but I am fairly sure she is non-partisan in her council seat and IDK if she's a Dem or 'Pub. Halley Griess is young and kind of good looking, but I think he may be a Republican.

[The Arizonan]

Are we going to finally see a congresswoman from Iowa in 2015?

We could see two; if I recall correctly, the Dem frontrunner for Bruce Braley's district is a woman.

AK, IA, ND, DE, VT, and MS are the only states that never had a congresswoman. It'd be neat if Iowa got struck from the list.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2 for 1 on retirements today!


I wonder if Boswell wants to try again. If he doesn't, I'm sure Des Moines has a decent Dem bench.

I doubt it. He'll be 80 next year and Democrats already have a strong candidate with State Sen. Staci Appel.

But man this is really, really great. We have one Democratic pickup each in NJ-3, VA-10, IA-3, FL-13, AR-2, possibly MT-AL, and hopefully others to come from maybe Ros-Lehtinen, LoBiondo or Heck.

The race itself I'm already calling for D+1. We'll have to fight harder in VA-10 for sure because that's a complete tossup. This is a lean D race.

Appel is actually a former State Senator and she lost 57-40% in 2010.  IIRC, she also wasn't the DCCC's first choice even when Latham was running for re-election (I think it was some wealthy businessman or something).  From what I've read, I get the impression that she's a credible candidate (at least, as far as sacrificial lambs go), but not a particularly strong one either.  While someone who knows more about Iowa politics would have a better idea of this than me, I suspect that there are some stronger potential candidates.  Some have already mentioned the Mayor of Des Moines (I don't know anything about him) and I know State Senate Majority Mike Gronstal lives in the district (but I don't know if he'd be a good candidate or not).  If the state treasurer, Mike Fitzgerald, lives in the district he'd be great.

[CatoMinor]

Obama won this district, not by much, with Presidential election level turnout. This race should be competitive but its a bit soon to be calling D+1.

[muon2]

IA-3 starts as an even PVI district which probably translates into a slight lean R in the off year. The Des Moines Register has a good rundown of top names in the district. There are some well known ones in the district on both sides.

[morgieb]

Obama won this district, not by much, with Presidential election level turnout. This race should be competitive but its a bit soon to be calling D+1.

TBF I think that's kinda moot in Iowa. Yeah the turnout will be more favourable to R's, but not as much as other districts.

But yeah, I wouldn't say it's in the bag at all.

[ElectionsGuy]

The race itself I'm already calling for D+1. We'll have to fight harder in VA-10 for sure because that's a complete tossup. This is a lean D race.

This is just an EVEN seat and VA-10 should start out Tilt R.

PVI wise, yes.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yay!

[publicunofficial]

No one besides Dems ex-State Sen. Staci Appel and some dude Gabriel De La Cerda are running yet, but The Des Moines Register has a rundown on possible candidates:



Considering:
GOP:
State Rep. Marry Ann Hanusa (Council Bluffs)
State Sen. Jake Chapman (Adel)
State Rep. Chris Hagenow (Windsor Heights)
State Sen. Charles Schneider (West Des Moines)
State Rep. Rob Taylor (West Des Moines)
State Sen. Jack Whitver (Ankey)
State Sen. and 2010 IA-03 nominee Brad Zaun (Urbandale)
Secretary of State Matt Schultz '
Businessman Jeff Ballenger (Council Bluffs)
Businessman David Oman (Des Moines)

Democrats:
Former Gov. Chet Culver
State Sen. Matt McCoy (Des Moines)
Former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman and Des Moines city councilman Michael Kiernan
Physician and health insurance plan president Andy McGuire



Not Running
GOP:
State Rep. Peter Cownie
2006 Iowa IA-03 nominee and former State Sen. Jeff Lamberti
Activist Bob Vander Plaats
State Sen. and Senate candidate Joni Ernst
Attorney and Senate candidate Matt Whitaker
Senate candidate Mark Jacobs


Democrats:
State Sen. Majority Leader Mike Gronstal
Activist Ed Fallon


Undecided/Could Not be Reached for Comment
GOP:
Senate Candidate David Young (Van Meter)
West Des Moines Mayor Steve Gaer
State GOP Vice Chairman David Fischer (Altoona)

Democrats
Lawyer and Polk County Democrats chairman Tom Henderson (Des Moines)
Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie
Polk County supervisor Tom Hockensmith
Lawyer and Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan
Secretary of Agriculture and ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack
Former First Lady of Iowa and 2012 IA-04 nominee Christie Vilsack

[badgate]

Obama won this district, not by much, with Presidential election level turnout. This race should be competitive but its a bit soon to be calling D+1.

TBF I think that's kinda moot in Iowa. Yeah the turnout will be more favourable to R's, but not as much as other districts.

But yeah, I wouldn't say it's in the bag at all.

Obviously the senate race going well for Braley will help turnout to elect a Dem in this district.

[Holmes]

Iowa isn't like Florida or Virginia or North Carolina where the midterm electorate is different enough to swing the elections in the opposite direction than the presidential election results. The 2014 electorate will look similar enough to the 2012 electorate.

[muon2]

Iowa isn't like Florida or Virginia or North Carolina where the midterm electorate is different enough to swing the elections in the opposite direction than the presidential election results. The 2014 electorate will look similar enough to the 2012 electorate.

There are significant fluctuations in IA. The statewide turnout shifts from around 70% in presidential years (08, 12) to 50% in off years like 2010. In Polk the number of voters dropped from 215 K in 2008 to 162 K in 2010 reflecting the statewide shifts. The missing voters in the off year include disproportionately young voters and other groups that might be expected to be more inclined to vote Dem. It may not be as dramatic as in some bigger cities, but there will be a difference in 2014 from 2012.

[greenforest32]

Iowa isn't like Florida or Virginia or North Carolina where the midterm electorate is different enough to swing the elections in the opposite direction than the presidential election results. The 2014 electorate will look similar enough to the 2012 electorate.

There are significant fluctuations in IA. The statewide turnout shifts from around 70% in presidential years (08, 12) to 50% in off years like 2010. In Polk the number of voters dropped from 215 K in 2008 to 162 K in 2010 reflecting the statewide shifts. The missing voters in the off year include disproportionately young voters and other groups that might be expected to be more inclined to vote Dem. It may not be as dramatic as in some bigger cities, but there will be a difference in 2014 from 2012.

Also note that Republicans will be eager to repeal Iowa's same-day registration law if they win control of the state legislature in Nov 2014. The Republican-controlled state house passed a repeal of IA's same-day registration earlier this year but the Dem-controlled state senate didn't take it up. I have no doubt Branstad would sign the bill, especially after his 2011 executive order overturning automatic restoration of felon voting rights. Just look at Republican efforts to repeal same-day registration in Maine (overturned by voters in a veto referendum), North Carolina, Montana (vetoed by Schweitzer and Bullock and now on the 2014 ballot) and now Ohio.

Low turn-out is the name of the game: http://www.demos.org/publication/what-same-day-registration-where-it-available

[Miles]

Brad Zaun, the tea party Republican that ran against Boswell in 2010 (and Nate Silver actually foretasted an R pickup, IIRC) is getting in here.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Brad Zaun, the tea party Republican that ran against Boswell in 2010 (and Nate Silver actually foretasted a R pickup, IIRC) is getting in here.

[Miles]

Chuck Grassley's chief of staff, David Young, was running for Senate but is dropping down to this race. I guess it helps Democrats that he'll have a rough primary against SoS Matt Schultz.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Sounds like Schultz is in.

[Miles]

'Good haul for Appel:

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[fldemfunds]

She only raised 260. Combined for year-end total was 500+. I think this and IA-4 are pickup opportunities. Mowrer's got a great bio and we'll see if he can raise the money to compete. Good support from the Biden network.

[publicunofficial]

Update:


Running:
GOP:
Grassley CoS and former Senate Candidate David Young (Van Meter)
Secretary of State Matt Schultz '
State Sen. and 2010 IA-03 nominee Brad Zaun (Urbandale)
Businessman Joe Grandanette

Democrats:
ex. State Sen Staci Appel
Some Dude  Gabriel De La Cerda

Considering:
GOP:

State Rep. Marry Ann Hanusa (Council Bluffs)
State Sen. Jake Chapman (Adel)
State Rep. Rob Taylor (West Des Moines)
Businessman Jeff Ballenger (Council Bluffs)


Democrats:
Former Gov. Chet Culver
Former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman and Des Moines city councilman Michael Kiernan
Physician and health insurance plan president Andy McGuire



Not Running
GOP:
State Rep. Peter Cownie
2006 Iowa IA-03 nominee and former State Sen. Jeff Lamberti
Activist Bob Vander Plaats
State Sen. and Senate candidate Joni Ernst
Attorney and Senate candidate Matt Whitaker
Senate candidate Mark Jacobs
State Rep. Chris Hagenow
State Sen. Charles Schneider
State Sen. Jack Whitver
Businessman David Oman


Democrats:
State Sen. Majority Leader Mike Gronstal
Activist Ed Fallon
State Sen. Matt McCoy