Some Relevant Maps

[Mechaman]

See if you can learn something about "trends"

[MATTROSE94]

Those maps are: 1892, 1896, 1916, 1920, 1928, 1932, 1948, 1952, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1988 and 1992.

[Mechaman]

Those maps are: 1892, 1896, 1916, 1920, 1928, 1932, 1948, 1952, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1988 and 1992.

Yep.

And for those of you wondering, and what MATTROSE94 (who is a religious observer of my works) already has found out quite easily, the point is that "trends" can come back to bite you in the ass.

I'll go into some details:

1892: Cleveland wins what could be the closest to an electoral landslide a Democrat could win during his era to get his second term in office.  He is able to do this thanks to a wide ranging coalition of pro-free trade businessmen, Republicans opposed to political corruption, Southern whites, and the heavily non-protestant immigrant masses that have settled in a lot of the urban areas of the country.  Thanks to the massive growth among first and second generation Americans Cleveland is able to score victories in Wisconsin, Illinois, California, New Jersey, and Connecticut and even comes within a few points of winning in Massachusetts and Ohio.  It seems that the almost unstoppable wave of immigration will inevitably lead to Democratic landslides and result in the GOP defending areas that they shouldn't need to even consider defending otherwise (ie, Upper New England).  As long as the perception is that the GOP is for the WASP Merchant classes and of forcing social morality on the masses, they are going to have a tough time defending their own home turf which is being taken over by Irish and German Democrats.

1896: What the hell happened?  Well, there was that Panic for starters.  It doesn't matter how much suspicion that your loyal groups have against the Republicans, eventually something will have to give when they're starving to death under a Panic that began during the Democratic administration.  On top of that, you have a crazy radical protestant religious nutjob who has a hardon for Free Silver while giving out side flavors of Prohibition and Nativism.  At the same time, the GOP nominee William McKinley is running on a platform that de-emphasizes social issues, is a proud wet, represented a multi-ethnic congressional district while serving time in the Congress, and is defending the Gold Standard while making some concessions to Silver.  Are the Democrats trying to lose now?

1916 I don't know how he did it, but Wilson has finally found the "Sweet Spot" that has eluded Democrats for nearly a generation.  He has found a way to reconcile the pro-silver pro-inflationary western wing with the segregationist southern wing with the largely immigrant non-protestant wing in the north.  With his record of progressive reforms and his insistence that he will keep the US out of war, unlike the pro-war implications of his Republican opponent, he is able to rally a strong enough coalition to pull out a slim victory.  The GOP is not endangered by any means, but they can no longer count on winning 16 years in a row at the least.

1920: Epic Fail guys.  You come out defending a President who went out of his way to infuriate his own party demographics (German and Irish Americans) in the north and then you come out as a moderate hero for Prohibition?  Yeah, good luck winning a single county in New York, much less having a hope of surviving the 1920s.  This single screwup is every bit as epic, if not more so, than the Whigs self destruction in 1852.

1928: Well this is interesting.  It seems that the Democrats are trying to stake out a more liberal position after the failure that was the 1924 Election.  While urban minorities are now solidly Democratic (except for blacks), expect some pretty ironic results.  However, this will certainly result in the breakup of the Democratic South, as many yellow dogs and inflationist protestants realize that the papists they thought they had under control can now go so far as become presidential nominees and run off of blatantly liberal platforms with candidates who damn the Ku Klux Klan.  At this point, they might as well vote Republican.

1932: Great Depression duh!  Seems like no one likes starving to death, except for the Republican machines in Pennsylvania and the rich WASP states in New England.  FDR has managed to find the sweet spot first discovered by Wilson.  Let's see how far this goes.

I'll be back later with more commentary, but this is the basic gist: Trends are quite malleable to the actions of the parties and their candidates or to political climate.

[Non Swing Voter]

Those maps are: 1892, 1896, 1916, 1920, 1928, 1932, 1948, 1952, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1988 and 1992.

Yep.

And for those of you wondering, and what MATTROSE94 (who is a religious observer of my works) already has found out quite easily, the point is that "trends" can come back to bite you in the ass.

I'll go into some details:

1892: Cleveland wins what could be the closest to an electoral landslide a Democrat could win during his era to get his second term in office.  He is able to do this thanks to a wide ranging coalition of pro-free trade businessmen, Republicans opposed to political corruption, Southern whites, and the heavily non-protestant immigrant masses that have settled in a lot of the urban areas of the country.  Thanks to the massive growth among first and second generation Americans Cleveland is able to score victories in Wisconsin, Illinois, California, New Jersey, and Connecticut and even comes within a few points of winning in Massachusetts and Ohio.  It seems that the almost unstoppable wave of immigration will inevitably lead to Democratic landslides and result in the GOP defending areas that they shouldn't need to even consider defending otherwise (ie, Upper New England).  As long as the perception is that the GOP is for the WASP Merchant classes and of forcing social morality on the masses, they are going to have a tough time defending their own home turf which is being taken over by Irish and German Democrats.

1896: What the hell happened?  Well, there was that Panic for starters.  It doesn't matter how much suspicion that your loyal groups have against the Republicans, eventually something will have to give when they're starving to death under a Panic that began during the Democratic administration.  On top of that, you have a crazy radical protestant religious nutjob who has a hardon for Free Silver while giving out side flavors of Prohibition and Nativism.  At the same time, the GOP nominee William McKinley is running on a platform that de-emphasizes social issues, is a proud wet, represented a multi-ethnic congressional district while serving time in the Congress, and is defending the Gold Standard while making some concessions to Silver.  Are the Democrats trying to lose now?

1916 I don't know how he did it, but Wilson has finally found the "Sweet Spot" that has eluded Democrats for nearly a generation.  He has found a way to reconcile the pro-silver pro-inflationary western wing with the segregationist southern wing with the largely immigrant non-protestant wing in the north.  With his record of progressive reforms and his insistence that he will keep the US out of war, unlike the pro-war implications of his Republican opponent, he is able to rally a strong enough coalition to pull out a slim victory.  The GOP is not endangered by any means, but they can no longer count on winning 16 years in a row at the least.

1920: Epic Fail guys.  You come out defending a President who went out of his way to infuriate his own party demographics (German and Irish Americans) in the north and then you come out as a moderate hero for Prohibition?  Yeah, good luck winning a single county in New York, much less having a hope of surviving the 1920s.  This single screwup is every bit as epic, if not more so, than the Whigs self destruction in 1852.

1928: Well this is interesting.  It seems that the Democrats are trying to stake out a more liberal position after the failure that was the 1924 Election.  While urban minorities are now solidly Democratic (except for blacks), expect some pretty ironic results.  However, this will certainly result in the breakup of the Democratic South, as many yellow dogs and inflationist protestants realize that the papists they thought they had under control can now go so far as become presidential nominees and run off of blatantly liberal platforms with candidates who damn the Ku Klux Klan.  At this point, they might as well vote Republican.

1932: Great Depression duh!  Seems like no one likes starving to death, except for the Republican machines in Pennsylvania and the rich WASP states in New England.  FDR has managed to find the sweet spot first discovered by Wilson.  Let's see how far this goes.

I'll be back later with more commentary, but this is the basic gist: Trends are quite malleable to the actions of the parties and their candidates or to political climate.

A GOP operative uses historical data to disprove using historical data.  Nothing like living in the REAL Mericar