MT-SEN: Baucus resigns
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Author Topic: MT-SEN: Baucus resigns  (Read 4079 times)
henster
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« on: December 18, 2013, 05:53:55 PM »
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/max-baucus-ambassador-china-101300.html?hp=f3

Baucus will resign, Dem Governor Steve Bullock will likely pick Joe Walsh to fill the seat.
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shua
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« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2013, 05:59:46 PM »
He hasn't resigned.  It is expected he will be nominated for ambassador to China, but we don't even know for sure if he will finish out his term first.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2013, 06:02:23 PM »
A slight gain for Ds (presuming he resigns) to have an incumbent in the seat, although Nate Silver has pointed out that appointed Senators don't appear to get most of the advantages of incumbency.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2013, 06:22:44 PM »
Quote from: henster on December 18, 2013, 05:53:55 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/max-baucus-ambassador-china-101300.html?hp=f3

Baucus will resign, Dem Governor Steve Bullock will likely pick Joe Walsh to fill the seat.



My new favorite senator.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2013, 11:05:09 PM »
Gotta give Democrats credit for this one -- smart move. Being an incumbent Senator will definitely help Walsh out -- doubt he'll recover 17 points, but money Republicans spend here is money they could be spending elsewhere. Meanwhile, shifts in the Senate from Baucus leaving promote Landrieu to Energy Committee Chair, which can't hurt the Louisiana campaign either. Credit given where credit is due.
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morgieb
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2013, 11:09:15 PM »
Congrats on your term in the Senate Baucus, and best of luck in China

Having an incumbent here helps a lot.
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BradyNH
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2013, 01:25:30 AM »
Hopefully he's more use in his new post than he has been in the Senate these past few years. I feel reasonably confident in Walsh as an incumbent candidate.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2013, 02:30:06 AM »
Better this than being a lobbyist for the insurance industry.
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free my dawg
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« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2013, 02:42:32 AM »
A good send-off to Senator Baucus. He may not have been the best Democrat, but his resignation has given us a much better chance at holding his seat. I wish him the best of luck in China.
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badgate
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« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2013, 02:51:58 AM »
I certainly support Wyden for this chairmanship. Wonder if Schumer will try to leapfrog though.
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windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2013, 04:05:20 AM »
Quote from: Vosem on December 18, 2013, 11:05:09 PM
Gotta give Democrats credit for this one -- smart move. Being an incumbent Senator will definitely help Walsh out -- doubt he'll recover 17 points, but money Republicans spend here is money they could be spending elsewhere. Meanwhile, shifts in the Senate from Baucus leaving promote Landrieu to Energy Committee Chair, which can't hurt the Louisiana campaign either. Credit given where credit is due.
         
Name recognition. 
Warren traiter Brown by the same margin at the beginning.
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windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2013, 05:20:53 AM »
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_06071118.pdf
This.
However, Republicans are clearly favored!
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2013, 05:22:56 AM »
Nate Silver on the electoral implications of John Ensign's resignation

Silver didn't think Heller would benefit very much from being an incumbent. And although counterfactuals are hard, the election result (a close Heller win) didn't really seem like it made much difference. Though perhaps Heller was more well-known than Walsh, and thus it could be more of a boost.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2013, 07:36:49 AM »
FWIW, MT's last two appointed Senators lost their primaries, including Baucus' predecessor Paul Hatfield.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2013, 09:21:52 AM »
Is there any chance Republicans filibuster Baucus's nomination so they can force him to put on a show, testifying about the passage of ACA?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2013, 10:05:41 AM »
The nuke option goes into effect when Mel Watts was blocked.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2013, 10:18:00 AM »
Quote from: OC on December 19, 2013, 10:05:41 AM
The nuke option goes into effect when Mel Watts was blocked.

Oh, duh. Thank you.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2013, 04:38:10 PM »
Quote from: Nichlemn on December 19, 2013, 05:22:56 AM
Nate Silver on the electoral implications of John Ensign's resignation

Silver didn't think Heller would benefit very much from being an incumbent. And although counterfactuals are hard, the election result (a close Heller win) didn't really seem like it made much difference. Though perhaps Heller was more well-known than Walsh, and thus it could be more of a boost.

Heller didn't win, Berkley lost. None of the above and some fringe candidate got a combined 9% of the vote, almost all of which were from people who voted Obama in the presidential race.

So yeah, I don't think being an appointed incumbent helps very much.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2014, 07:17:39 PM »
Baucus confirmed 96-0 as new ambassador to China.
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2014, 07:25:23 PM »
Quote from: Joshua on February 06, 2014, 07:17:39 PM
Baucus confirmed 96-0 as new ambassador to China.

Wish him the best of luck. China's become more and more fascist under Xi Jinping, especially in foreign affairs. I do not envy him.
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badgate
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« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2014, 08:04:03 PM »
At least he will be kept from the revolving door for a few years.
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Vosem
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« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2014, 08:21:34 PM »

The thing is, Montana is a solidly Republican state while Massachusetts is solidly Democratic. If anything, the undecideds will move to expand Daines' lead (while they moved towards Warren in Massachusetts). Massachusetts is a terrible precedent for your side's chances in this race.
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Miles
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« Reply #22 on: February 06, 2014, 10:22:17 PM »
Good; Landrieu finally gets the Energy chairmanship!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2014, 10:25:15 PM »
Quote from: MilesC56 on February 06, 2014, 10:22:17 PM
Good; Landrieu finally gets the Energy chairmanship!

It's the Forum, Miles, not the set for a Landrieu '14 campaign ad.
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badgate
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« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2014, 10:37:43 PM »
Quote from: MilesC56 on February 06, 2014, 10:22:17 PM
Good; Landrieu finally gets the Energy chairmanship!

I thought the same thing. Keystone Phil is right, it's definitely something she can tout as an incumbent advantage.


Probably helps her fundraising too.
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