Labour's Nightmare Scenario

[afleitch]

Okay. I've been playing around with polls, turnout and tactical voting to produce Labour's Nightmare. A hung parliament with the Tories with the largest numbers of seats and the Lib Dems topping 100, Tory seats in the South West and a load of Labour seats including (shock horror) Durham! The map looks cool and although it's all just maths i'll do a region by region summary! First up: Scotland, Wales and the North East

SCOTLAND

Western Isles: SNP GAIN FROM LAB
Aberdeen South: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Dundee East: SNP GAIN FROM LAB
Ochil & South Perthshire: SNP GAIN FROM LAB
Angus: CON GAIN FROM SNP
Stirling: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Edinburgh North and Leith: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Edinburgh South: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Edinburgh South West: CON GAIN FROM LAB
East Lothian (!): LIB GAIN FROM LAB
East Dumbartonshire: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
East Renfrewshire: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweedale: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Dumfries and Galloway: CON GAIN FROM LAB

WALES

Delyn: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Vale of Clywd: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Clywd West: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Conwy: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Preseli Pembrokeshire: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Carmarthen W & S Pembrokeshire: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Swansea West: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Gower: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Vale of Glamorgan: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Cardiff North: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Cardiff Central: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Monmouth: CON GAIN FROM LAB

NORTH EAST

Wansbeck: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Blyth Valley: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Tynemouth: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Newcastle Central: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Blaydon: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Durham: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Darlington: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Stockton South: CON GAIN FROM LAB
M'boro South and East Cleveland: CON GAIN FROM LAB

Unlikely- but fun!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Delyn: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Vale of Clywd: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Conwy: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Swansea West: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Gower: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Wansbeck: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Blyth Valley: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Darlington: CON GAIN FROM LAB
M'boro South and East Cleveland: CON GAIN FROM LAB

Most of these 'uns are so impossible it's funny

[Democratic Hawk]

Durham ain't going anywhere - though I'm certain iLabour will hold it with a substantially reduced majority. If Durham was ever going to fall, it would have done so in 1983

The Liberal Democrats did not gain Durham City Council - Labour lost it and, frankly, it was their own ruddy fault

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal Democrats did not gain Durham City Council - Labour lost it and, frankly, it was their own ruddy fault

I remember a load of scandels and stuff came to light immidiately before the election.
Didn't the council leader (who retired IIRC) give himself a huge pension or something?

[Democratic Hawk]

The Liberal Democrats did not gain Durham City Council - Labour lost it and, frankly, it was their own ruddy fault

I remember a load of scandels and stuff came to light immidiately before the election.
Didn't the council leader (who retired IIRC) give himself a huge pension or something?

It was many things - and the Cobbler didn't help - the Council actually thought they were doing a good job. A year before the 2003 election, I saw a photo of the Councilllors alongside the Mayor at Annual Council - and I told them in no uncertain terms that the Labour members wanted to keep it as a mememto because half them wouldn't be there next time - and I was scoffed at! True, enough Labour members fell from 33 to 17.

New boundaries did benefit the Lib Dems though - with Bearpark and Witton Gilbert being a case in-point

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was many things - and the Cobbler didn't help - the Council actually thought they were doing a good job. A year before the 2003 election, I saw a photo of the Councilllors alongside the Mayor at Annual Council - and I told them in no uncertain terms that the Labour members wanted to keep it as a mememto because half them wouldn't be there next time - and I was scoffed at! True, enough Labour members fell from 33 to 17.

A bit like Wear Valley in 1990 really.

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I saw a map of the wards a while ago. Wait a sec...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some of those wards look a little bit gerrymandered to me...

[Democratic Hawk]

Some of those wards look a little bit gerrymandered to me...

Bearpark and Witton Gilbert simply don't belong together - they isn't even a straight road through connecting the two villages. Apparently, Beapark was too big for one councillor but not big enough for two and Witton Gilbert was too big for two councillors but not big enough for three - if you get the drift. Most wards have three councillors - but they let Shincliffe stay alone with one. They could of, and should of, did the same with Bearpark

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some of those wards look a little bit gerrymandered to me...

Bearpark and Witton Gilbert simply don't belong together - they isn't even a straight road through connecting the two villages. Apparently, Beapark was too big for one councillor but not big enough for two and Witton Gilbert was too big for two councillors but not big enough for three - if you get the drift. Most wards have three councillors - but they let Shincliffe stay alone with one. They could of, and should of, did the same with Bearpark

Dave

Who proposed the map?

[Democratic Hawk]

Some of those wards look a little bit gerrymandered to me...

Bearpark and Witton Gilbert simply don't belong together - they isn't even a straight road through connecting the two villages. Apparently, Beapark was too big for one councillor but not big enough for two and Witton Gilbert was too big for two councillors but not big enough for three - if you get the drift. Most wards have three councillors - but they let Shincliffe stay alone with one. They could of, and should of, did the same with Bearpark

Dave

Who proposed the map?

The Boundary Commission to the best of my knowledge

Dave

[afleitch]

It's going to get worse my friends! Seriously tho I think it's all far fetched but it's nice to see Labour squirm...even if only in a simulation! Labour is getting stung in the inner cities simply because of a low turnout and a swing to the Lib Dems. This is allowing in some cases for the Tories to sneak into 2nd place. It's John Curtice's 'Tactical Unwind' in action.

YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER

Scarborough and Whitby: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Selby: CON GAIN FROM LAB
York: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Brigg and Goole: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Cleethorpes: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Elmet: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Leeds North East: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Leeds North West: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Pudsey: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Bradford North: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Bradford West : CON GAIN FROM LAB
Shipley: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Keighley: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Calder Valley: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Colne Valley: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Halifax: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Batley and Spen: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Dewsbury: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Wakefield: CON GAIN FROM LAB
Sheffield Hillsborough: LIB GAIN FROM LAB
Sheffield Heeley: LIB GAIN FROM LAB

Haltemprice and Howden= I'm having David Davis hang on here due to name recognition alone.

I hope everyone's colouring in their map lol


 

[Democratic Hawk]

It's going to get worse my friends! Seriously tho I think it's all far fetched but it's nice to see Labour squirm...even if only in a simulation! Labour is getting stung in the inner cities simply because of a low turnout and a swing to the Lib Dems. This is allowing in some cases for the Tories to sneak into 2nd place. It's John Curtice's 'Tactical Unwind' in action.

I know you have issues with Blair - but do you really want Michael Howard? Besides, if you vote Blair - in the long run, you will actually get who you want - Gordon Brown and this is the man who will be setting the General Election agenda from tomorrow. He, unlike the Tories, will not risk Britain's economic security for the sake of rank electoral opportunism. And as for Howards making an issue of abortion, will the British really stomach a man, who seems to be mimicking a Bush-style strategy?

With the best will in the world, you can't put 18 years of misrule right in 8 years, but improvements are being made, regardless of the what the conservative media perpetually ram down our throats. For example, 66, 000 cancelled/postponed operations out of 6.7m operations is, by no means, bad. I certainly don't subscribe to any kind of 'Blame the Tories' mantra - hell, in 1997, they were still blaming Labour of the 1970s

Frankly, I don't think the country can afford a return to economic boom and bust (instead of continual and sustained growth), high inflation, high unemployment and high interest rates - the Tories won't have learned anything from their years in opposition about how to do things for the greater good

Dave

[afleitch]

We are living in a surreal nightmare. A nightmare that sees increasing violence in schools yet each year more rights are taking being taken away from teachers. We are living in a society where the workshy get richer and the hard working get poorer. Students end up in financial ruin. Where the government won't deal with the pensions crisis, leaving it up to us younger ones to pick up the pieces. We have an assault on ancient freedoms. We have a lying government whose stooges rig elections in Birmingham, make veiled anti-semetic attacks on Letwin and Howard and give them jobs they didn't do in the first place! 'When Howard ran the Health Service, when Howard ran the Education system.' This isn't about what Howard did or did not do in the 1980's it is about what Labour have done since 1997.

One word: chav (or ned as it is in Scotland) A social by product of New Labours social policy, in the same way Yuppies were a by product of Thatcherism. But guess which group was more benificial to society.

And yes I know this is a rant, but I am just so angry and so let down. My own 'red brick' university now has a packed Conservative Society for the first time in a generation! The under 25s are swinging rightwards.

[Democratic Hawk]

You probably won't recall the 1980s and Thatcherite excesses, but I do. As for hard working families getting poorer and the workshy getting richer, please. The majority of folk are better off now than they were 8 years ago. In 1997, 25% of pensioners were classed as at being at poverty-level, it's 7% now; while the government has been supportive of working families. What is more, for the first time in a generation, people actually have relative fincancial security and the country has economic securirty

As for student's facing financial ruin. I understand this, I have about £6500 of student loans outstanding and I don't have to pay a penny back until I'm earning more than £1897pm and since I'm caring for my terminally-ill dad - that seems to be, for me, a while off. What are the Tory plans?

As for attacks on ancient freedoms, rigged elections and anti-Semitism - on that we can agree to differ

As for welfare dependants (the social, as you call them), it was the excesses of Thatcher's neo-liberal economics that created an unprecedented level of welfare dependents and, frankly, it was a bit of a waste. Hundreds of thousands cast out of work, being encouraged to sign on sick instead of unemployed. Incapacity will fall as those folks reach retirement - it's pretty hard for the habitually 'sick' being rehabilitated back into work. Labour's minimum wage, if anything, has reduced dependency on welfare (i.e. reduced the number of socials)

As for violence, it was Margaret Thatcher who 'abolished' society (not forgetting her policies reeking havoc on communities and family life) and with it any semblance of social responsibility. Oh yes, the ' me, me, me' society has a lot to answer for creating a culture of selfishness. Overall crime is down, although, unfortunately, violent crime is up

Michael Howard is a shameless opportunist - yes, a man of straw, who would be a complete disaster for the country. In my experience, opportunists are people of pretty shallow moral fibre. I felt indifferent towards Hague and Duncan-Smith - but this man and his past record of failure sends shudders down my spine and who can blame me expecially when Tory (or rather ex-Tory candidates) openly talk of the 'creative destruction' of public services

Oh and on the pensions 'crisis', I agree something needs to be done - bring on Frank Field. The Tories' are too-shortsighted to be trusted on that one

In sum, progress has been made and economic competence on the part of Labour means that public services will continue to improve - or would you prefer, mass unemployment, higher inflation, crippling interest rates, negative equity, hundreds of small businesses going bankrupt - because that's exactly what your gonna get. The Tories' record speaks for itself. Yes, New Labour can, and more importantly have, run capitalism better than the Tories - and that doesn't say much for them!

I'm sure you do feel let down by Labour - and to an extent, I do as well, espcially every time I see TB alongside GWB (I don't agree with top-up tuition fees but then I vote for the greater good of society and not just my own personal benefit) - but if you think Howard's the answer then you are very much mistaken. Things aren't perfect - but they can be a hell of a lot worse and the years 1979-1997 are proof of it!

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Erm...let's get back on topic...sure this is about 0% likely, but I'd like to read the rest of it anyways.