Washington Post on Georgia Turning Purple

[DS0816]

People may talk about Georgia becoming a swing state, but I kind of doubt it.  It is, after all, one of the few states that has become more Republican over the past two decades.

One thing I notice is that, since the 1950s, when numerous of the presidential winners whose base states did not come from the Old Confederacy managed to carry select states from that area … the ones in their column accounted for between 10 to 15 percent of their overall electoral-vote score.

I'm referring to Dwight Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Bill Clinton (1992, 1996), and Barack Obama (2008, 2012).

For the latest of Democratic presidential victories, being in the range of 332 to 379 electoral votes, this means between 33 and 56 electoral votes serve as to guide. Nowadays, for a Democrat to match that Clinton re-election score, 56 electoral votes would essentially come from the ones carried with the first election of Obama in 2008: longtime bellwether Florida (29), establishing bellwether Virginia (13), and future bellwether North Carolina (15).

For Georgia to flip, this suggests to me a prevailing Democrat would landslide his/her Republican opponent to the tune of an electoral-vote score north of 400.

[DS0816]

It will happen one day, but Arizona will switch much sooner. Arizona (except for their current governor & police force) has always been politically moderate for as long as I can remember. Just think of John McCain and other recent senators they've had + being one of the least religious states in the US. They even have a majority Democrats in the House of Representatives currently. Georgia, on the other hand, has always been politically very conservative. Hadn't it been for the citizens out of state magnet that is Atlanta + their huge black population, Georgia wouldn't even have been remotely close in presidential elections. Even today, most of Atlanta's sizable suburbs continue to vote Republican. Certainly a bad sign for Democratic prospects. And Georgia, even with its influx of new citizens, continue to be one of the most religious states in the country, although slightly less so than their neighbours Alabama and South Carolina.

I believe Arizona might switch already in 2016. Georgia on the other hand, will probably have to wait till 2020 or 2024. However Hillary does have the X factor for being seen as a representative of the south or who at least understands the concerns of southerners. Thus, even Georgia could potentially switch in 2016. However, I believe Hillary will be much more tempted to apply a Latino Strategy rather than a New Southern Strategy. She might attempt to do both of course, and probably will to some extent, however I believe her Latino outreach will be much more substantial & sincere than her constant touring and campaigning in the southern states. Early on she might concentrate on the south, however, the closer we'll get to the election, the latino outreach and focus on the main swing states will consume almost all of her attention, money and staff, I believe.

I noted it somewhere on this site. The last two decades' worth of presidential elections saw the statewide margins of Arizona and Georgia typically five percentage points or less from each other. Even in 1992 and 1996, when they carried differently, they were no more than five points in spread. 2004 was the year they were six points in spread from each other.

Had Barack Obama won the 2012 re-election with a national margin between 10 and 12 points (rather than between 3 and 4 points), I would say that, while losing Indiana and Nebraska #02 to losing Republican challenger Mitt Romney, the 44th president would have countered with Democratic pickups of Arizona and Georgia. That way, he would've been re-elected along traditional historical lines of improved electoral-vote score, with North Carolina retained, going from 365 (in 2008) to 374 (in 2012) electoral votes.