Personally I am skeptical minority turnout will be as high in 2016 as it was in 08/12.
So Georgia and Texas(at least for the foreseeable future) should remain safely in GOP hands imo.
If blacks continue to vote in higher levels than whites, yes Georgia will be purple as the great migration reverses itself.
Considering Obama will not be on the ballot in 2016, whether that happens or not remains to be seen...
Pretty much this, but I don't think Obama made too much of a difference besides slightly higher than usual turnout numbers for blacks.
I've never understood the general argument that minority turnout in Deep South states will suddenly plummet once Obama is no longer in office and his supposed hex wears off of the electorate. That it will immediately disintegrate come 2016 is demonstrably false. I worry about something else, but I'll elaborate below. Let's consider Georgia's electorate over the past few cycles, using this nifty past and future chart I made:
In 2004, the black electorate comprised 25% of the voting population. It surged in 2008 - by five points - and was 30% of the electorate. Fast forward to 2012 and it remained the same - roughly 30% of the electorate. But what about in the mid-terms? Obama was not on the ballot then, yet blacks managed to comprise 28% of the electorate in 2010, an incredibly impressive number considering their share of the electorate in the 2004 election. Sure, it was the largest nominal drop between a presidential year and a midterm year for the black electorate in the past two decades, but it also followed the biggest surge in black registration and turnout since at least Reconstruction.
Just four years prior (2006), that number was 24%. I don't buy that a potential effect in turnout among blacks - especially in the midterms - was avoided just because Obama was sitting in the White House. We all saw the disorganization and terrible turnout nationally of Democrats, yet this wasn't nearly as big of a problem in Georgia in relative terms. The black voting bloc in Georgia has been activated and there has been a historical trend over the past few decades in Georgia that blacks who are registered to vote have a pretty strong tendency to actually vote - it's getting them registered that usually proves to be the issue.
My big worry does not pertain to whether or not blacks will turnout in 2014 & 2016 (they will), but rather to how much they will continue to support Democrats. The black electorate in Georgia gave Gore and Kerry 88% and 89% of their vote, respectively. In 2008, that number increased to 98% and was somewhere around 95% in 2012. If this number reverts from 95% to 89%, that's effectively a two-point reduction in statewide Democratic performance; under those conditions, Obama would have only received 43.5% of the vote in 2012.
If I recall, Black turnout in Georgia actually fell in 2012- probably due to voter ID. However, the demographic changes in Georgia aren't the kind that will be canceled out by any potentially decreased turnout- they'll make up for lowered turnout an then some.
That's assuming, as Mechaman has pointed out, that current trends will continue with no modification thanks to changes in the parties. However, I actually think the trends in Georgia are more likely to put the state in the D-column long term than those in NC and VA. That's simply because in the latter 2, the shift is more dependent on moderate white suburbanites.
It only fell by 0.2 points. Voter ID was passed in GA in 2004 and went into full effect in 2007. Again, the biggest surge in black turnout and registration in Georgia was done under the first full election cycle of photo ID. I hate to admit it, but the Republicans' best argument for voter ID laws is Georgia; it really has not prevented the black community as a whole from exercising their democratic rights. The black share of the electorate has been 93-97% representative of their share of the population in the past two presidential election cycles, far higher than it was prior to voter ID laws being implemented.
