Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The challenge: Draw the most rural district possible (with population equality and contiguity requirements; ignore the VRA) for any state.

New Hampshire


1 (teal/rural) - 2010 pop: 658,013  Obama 55.2%, McCain 43.9%  95.4% White
2 - 658,457  Obama 53.5%, McCain 45.7%   89.2% White

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here is a NH map with a McCain majority district:


CD1: 658,020 Obama 49.1% McCain 50.1%
CD2: 658,450 Obama 59.9% McCain 39.2%

Here's a close-up.  The Nashua area looks a bit like the shape of the SE Coastal US.

[minionofmidas]

Fun fact: Obama won the thing in 2008, by 249 votes.

[minionofmidas]

I think I'll stop now.

[Flake]

Decided to make a pretty map of Kentucky.



1 (blue):
55.6% Obama
43.4% McCain

2 (green):
53.0% McCain
45.5% Obama

3 (purple):
60.7% McCain
37.8% Obama

4 (red):
68.7% McCain
29.7% Obama

5 (yellow):
64.1% McCain
34.4% Obama

6 (teal):
57.6% McCain
40.8% Obama

[ElectionsGuy]

Arizona Congressional:



Phoenix/Tucson Closeup:



Blue (Tuscon): 58.1% Obama, 40.7% McCain. 55.1% White, 34.8% Hispanic
Green (Inner Phoenix): 65.9% Obama, 32.9% McCain. 55.5% Hispanic, 29.7% White.
Purple (Chandler/Gilbert): 56.6% McCain, 42.4% Obama. 71.8% White, 15.2% Hispanic.
Red (Mesa/Scottsdale): 57.3% McCain, 41.5% Obama. 74.2% White, 16.9% Hispanic.
Yellow (Northern Phoenix): 55.7% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 72.6% White, 17.7% Hispanic.
Teal (Glendale/Peoria): 58.0% McCain, 41.0% Obama. 68.1% White, 21.8% Hispanic.
Gray (SW Arizona): 58.2% McCain, 40.8% Obama. 59.9% White, 32.8% Hispanic.
Slate Blue (SE Arizona): 58.9% McCain, 39.9% Obama. 64.9% White, 23.0% Hispanic.
Lime Green (Northern Arizona): 55.5% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 70.6% White, 15.7% Native, 10.6% Hispanic.

This is a neat little republican gerrymander. And the thing I like about it is that it looks like it was neatly constructed and not purposefully gerrymandered.

(Racial demographics are Voter Age Percentage, so they're much whiter than they actually are).

[muon2]

Arizona Congressional:



Phoenix/Tucson Closeup:



Blue (Tuscon): 58.1% Obama, 40.7% McCain. 55.1% White, 34.8% Hispanic
Green (Inner Phoenix): 65.9% Obama, 32.9% McCain. 55.5% Hispanic, 29.7% White.
Purple (Chandler/Gilbert): 56.6% McCain, 42.4% Obama. 71.8% White, 15.2% Hispanic.
Red (Mesa/Scottsdale): 57.3% McCain, 41.5% Obama. 74.2% White, 16.9% Hispanic.
Yellow (Northern Phoenix): 55.7% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 72.6% White, 17.7% Hispanic.
Teal (Glendale/Peoria): 58.0% McCain, 41.0% Obama. 68.1% White, 21.8% Hispanic.
Gray (SW Arizona): 58.2% McCain, 40.8% Obama. 59.9% White, 32.8% Hispanic.
Slate Blue (SE Arizona): 58.9% McCain, 39.9% Obama. 64.9% White, 23.0% Hispanic.
Lime Green (Northern Arizona): 55.5% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 70.6% White, 15.7% Native, 10.6% Hispanic.

This is a neat little republican gerrymander. And the thing I like about it is that it looks like it was neatly constructed and not purposefully gerrymandered.

(Racial demographics are Voter Age Percentage, so they're much whiter than they actually are).

It's a nice gerrymander, but I think it loses to the VRA. The actual map has two CDs at over 60% Hispanic (not VAP).

[ElectionsGuy]

It's a nice gerrymander, but I think it loses to the VRA. The actual map has two CDs at over 60% Hispanic (not VAP).

Meh, I'm pretty sure the Phoenix based district was over 60%, but definitely not any others. I don't usually think about any VRA districts when I do this, so oh well.

[Flake]

Changed title to be more accurate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Changed title to be more accurate.

I feel bad now. I should probably stop posting so much on this.

[Flake]

Changed title to be more accurate.

I feel bad now. I should probably stop posting so much on this.

No, Keep posting! I love your maps

[Flake]

Blue:
52.3% Obama
46.1% McCain

Green:
52.9% Obama
45.6% McCain

Purple:
51.4% Obama
47.0% McCain

Red:
51.2% Obama
47.1% McCain

Yellow:
51.8% Obama
46.6% Obama

Teal:
50.5% Obama
47.7% McCain

Silver:
56.0% Obama
42.3% McCain

Slate Blue:
64.2% Obama
34.0% McCain

Apologies to the colorblind.

So here is a 9 district map where Obama won each district.

[ElectionsGuy]

In that case, I will do more maps

I thought I would do a 2 district plan for states that don't yet have 2 districts (3 electoral vote states) to kind of anticipate what the districts might look like.

Alaska:



Anchorage + Matsu Suburbs = Safe R. Adding the heavily republican suburbs to anchorage makes it secure for the republicans. The other district is 20% Native American (but still 66% white). Obama could've come close in in this district in 2012, but I suspect in most other years it should be in republican hands. Alaska won't have 2 districts for a long time though, and it needs to grow a lot to get there.

Delaware:



A good look at the north here. The New Castle/Wilminghton based district went 71-28 Obama in 2008, while the rest went 52-47 Obama. Its quite likely Romney won it actually (with his 56-43 win in Sussex County) so this could actually be considered Toss-Up or Lean R. A 4 electoral vote Delaware just could become realistic if it keeps growing as it is.

Vermont:



Nothing much to see here. Vermont currently has very little growth so 2 districts is not realistic at all, but if it did, both would be Safe D as they went 69-29 and 66-32 in 2008 (similar numbers in 2012).

South Dakota:



With the dakotas I decided to do a more east-west division of districts. The blue went 50-48 McCain and the green 57-41 McCain. But don't be fooled, 2008 Obama numbers in the Dakotas are laughable. Both of these are Likely/Safe R districts. South Dakota could get 4 electoral votes if it grows as fast as ND, but I suspect it won't happen for awhile if ever.

North Dakota:



This one definitely looks less skinny and awkward then the South Dakota one. The blue actually went 50-48 Obama in 2008, but again, don't be fooled. Its a Lean/Likely R seat. The rest went 59-39 McCain. Whats interesting is that North Dakota seems to have a much deeper political division of east-west than South Dakota. Anyway, even though North Dakota is the fastest growing state in the country, it needs a lot of growth to gain another EV. 

Wyoming:



Both these went 65-33 McCain and would be safe under almost any circumstance. More east-west division, one of these districts has Cheyenne, the other has Casper, and they're balanced politically too. Wyoming being the least populated state, its very unrealistic it will get another EV any time in the foreseeable future.

Montana:



Now 4 EV's is quite realistic in 2020 and could get one from RI (which will have 3 EV's for the first time in its history, btw) so I'm guessing they might do a plains/mountains division. This could result in a potentially gain able seat for the democrats in the west with Missoula, Helena, Butte, etc. But I think it leans republican, and I'm sure Romney won it even though Obama did in 2008 (even if I don't have numbers to back that up). Montana swung heavily against Obama in 2012. If I had to guess, I would say the east is 59-38 Romney and Safe R, and the west is 51-46 Romney and Lean R. Note that while the blue has lots of Gallatin County, it does not contain any part of the city of Bozeman.

[Gass3268]

Local democrats would be able to win the eastern Dakota and western Montana districts, even if Romney won those districts in 2012. Heidi Heitkamp won every county in the eastern North Dakota map and Tester most likely won the western Montana district.

[krazen1211]

Arizona Congressional:



Phoenix/Tucson Closeup:



Blue (Tuscon): 58.1% Obama, 40.7% McCain. 55.1% White, 34.8% Hispanic
Green (Inner Phoenix): 65.9% Obama, 32.9% McCain. 55.5% Hispanic, 29.7% White.
Purple (Chandler/Gilbert): 56.6% McCain, 42.4% Obama. 71.8% White, 15.2% Hispanic.
Red (Mesa/Scottsdale): 57.3% McCain, 41.5% Obama. 74.2% White, 16.9% Hispanic.
Yellow (Northern Phoenix): 55.7% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 72.6% White, 17.7% Hispanic.
Teal (Glendale/Peoria): 58.0% McCain, 41.0% Obama. 68.1% White, 21.8% Hispanic.
Gray (SW Arizona): 58.2% McCain, 40.8% Obama. 59.9% White, 32.8% Hispanic.
Slate Blue (SE Arizona): 58.9% McCain, 39.9% Obama. 64.9% White, 23.0% Hispanic.
Lime Green (Northern Arizona): 55.5% McCain, 43.1% Obama. 70.6% White, 15.7% Native, 10.6% Hispanic.

This is a neat little republican gerrymander. And the thing I like about it is that it looks like it was neatly constructed and not purposefully gerrymandered.

(Racial demographics are Voter Age Percentage, so they're much whiter than they actually are).

Certain Indian reservations here were split.

[Miles]

I made one like this a while back but cleaned it up. A Democratic LA:



CD6 moves to 52/47 McCain and 54/45 for CD4. I protected Boustany to the extent that I could, but I had to give McAllister the shaft.

Without Section 4, I want to start experimenting with unpacking CD2.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

12/12 solid Obama districts in New Jersey




NJ-1 (Blue)
56% Obama
44% McCain

NJ-2 (Green)
Obama 56.4%
McCain 43.6%

NJ-3 (Purple)
61.2% Obama
38.8% McCain

NJ-4 (Red)
54% Obama
46% McCain

NJ-5 (Yellow)
53.1% Obama
46.9% McCain

NJ-6 (Teal)
53.6% Obama
46.4% McCain

NJ-7 (Grey)
54.3% Obama
45.7% McCain

NJ-8 (Slate Blue)
56.8% Obama
43.2% McCain

NJ-9 (Cyan)
56.3% Obama
43.7% McCain

NJ-10 (Pink)
55% Obama
45% McCain

NJ-11 (Chartreuse)
56.2% Obama
43.8% McCain

NJ-12 (Cornflower Blue)
79.7% Obama
20.3% McCain

[Miles]

Another LA map. If it got to keep 7 seats, I did a clean minimum change map. I tried to keep CD2 as compact as possible and kept it 50.7% BVAP:

[Miles]

In the late 2000's the rest of the country grows quickly, but NC slows down and loses a seat.



CD1- 72/27 Obama 51.0% BVAP
CD2- 55/45 McCain
CD3- 56/43 McCain
CD4- 68/31 Obama
CD5- 60/39 McCain
CD6- 57/42 McCain
CD7- 57/42 McCain
CD8- 57/43 McCain
CD9- 54/45 McCain
CD10- 57/42 McCain
CD11- 58/41 McCain
CD12- 78/22 Obama

Ellmers, as the freshman, gets the shaft from Republicans. She can take her chances in the 13 primary, where she lives, or run against McIntyre.

[Miles]

And a Democratic version of my last map:



CD1- 68/31 Obama 49.9% BVAP (split a precinct or two for 50.1%)
CD2- 54/45 Obama
CD3- 61/38 McCain
CD4- 59/40 Obama
CD5- 58/41 McCain
CD6- 59/40 McCain
CD7- 52/47 McCain
CD8- 51/49 Obama
CD9- 56/43 McCain
CD10- 63/36 McCain
CD11- 52/46 McCcain
CD12- 74/26 Obama

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Colorado - Obama wins 7/7 districts




CO-1 (Blue)
54.4% Obama
43.8% McCain

CO-2 (Green)
57% Obama
41.3% McCain

CO-3 (Purple)
56.6% Obama
41.8% McCain

CO-4 (Red)
55% Obama
43.5% McCain

CO-5 (Yellow)
51.6% Obama
46.6% McCain

CO-6 (Teal)
50.6% Obama
47.8% McCain

CO-7 (Grey)
51.4% Obama
47.1% McCain

[Flake]

Gonna do a series based on this map:

Based on how the past 2 decades have gone, I think it's safe to assume that interstate migration will pick up again with the economy later this decade.  If that's the case, this would be my guess for the 2064 electoral map:

My first state was Nevada, and its six congressional districts.




District 1 (blue)
50.1% Democrat (54.8% Obama)
49.9% Republican (43.0% McCain)

Toss Up/Tilt D



District 2 (green)
62.5% Republican (57.6% McCain)
37.5% Democrat (39.7% Obama)

Strong R



District 3 (purple)
56.0% Democrat (57.5% Obama)
44.0% Republican (40.6% McCain)

Solid D



District 4 (red):
54.5% Democrat (57.9% Obama)
45.5% Republican (40.1% McCain)

Lean D



District 5 (yellow)
55.5% Democrat (58.1% Obama)
44.5% Republican (39.7% McCain)

Solid D



District 6 (teal)
71.9% Democrat (71.6% Obama)
28.1% Republican (26.1% McCain)

Safe D

Ratings System:

Tossup (Tilt D/R): 50%-53%
Lean (D/R): 53-55%
Likely (D/R): 55%-60%
Solid (D/R): 60%-70%
Safe (D/R): 70%+

[Flake]

(Since Democrats win 5/6 seats in a normal year, they won 83% of seats, so the state is colored 80% red)

Next on the list is Idaho:

District 1 (blue):
66.5% McCain
31.3% Obama

Solid R



District 2 (green, oddly enough the whitest district)
49.0% Obama
48.6% McCain

Toss Up/Tilt D


District 3 (purple)
71.5% McCain
25.0% Obama

Safe R

[Miles]

'Offering a submission.

Assuming the VRA can be fixed by then, a status quo 6-CD Alabama. Some necessary renumbering, but the current 2 and 3 were effectively merged.

[Flake]

Total Representation in the 138th congress:
9 Democrats
6 Republicans

Might as well add up all the safe, one district states.