Rasmussen-Kerry surges

[© tweed]

today's Rasmussen has KErry in a six point lead.  this is the highest his lead has been sinc e Rasmussen Started doing the tracking poll.  The numbers:

Kerry 48%
Bush 42%

Bush's approval rating holds steady at 49% approve, 50% disapprove.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Also, in the generic congress polling, The standings are Dem 44% GOP 34%.  This matches the largest lead of the year.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Congressional_Ballot%20Survey.htm
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Well, today's a good day to be a Democrat.

[Michael Z]

Sssshhh, better not jinx it. As far as I know Dukakis was doing equally well this stage in 88.

[© tweed]

Sssshhh, better not jinx it. As far as I know Dukakis was doing equally well this stage in 88.

55-37% I reckon'

I didn't say Kerry would win, I said it's a good day to be a Democrat.

[Rococo4]

Sssshhh, better not jinx it. As far as I know Dukakis was doing equally well this stage in 88.

55-37% I reckon'

I didn't say Kerry would win, I said it's a good day to be a Democrat.

A good day to be a Democrat - Bush's numbers go down because troops are getting killed,  Its sick, because thats the only chance Kerry has, so really bad news in Iraq is good news for Democrats.  Maybe if a ton of troops get killed Kerry will rocket up to like 53-55% in Rasmussen.

[Rococo4]

Its just sickening.

[Lunar]

Might even be higher since it has 5% for "other" (read: Nader) which might not pan out completely on election day.

But the gain is interesting since it should be Bush surging with great news on the economy as the article points out.

Margin of Error is 3%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How come Vorlon is not posting these updates anymore?  

I'd much rather be up 6 than down 6 at this point in the campaign, but I haven't really noticed any real trends in these tracking polls so far.  Some say Bush is up while others say Kerry is up at the same time.  The next week, they are reversed.  It seems like mostly noise at this point.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Its just sickening.

Sickening? I think people have the right to be mad at the man who pushed for this war when so many Americans are dying.  It's not a reaction of "Yes!" when we (Democrats) see soldiers die, we just think of how badly we need to get rid of Bush.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Might even be higher since it has 5% for "other" (read: Nader) which might not pan out completely on election day.

But the gain is interesting since it should be Bush surging with great news on the economy as the article points out.

Margin of Error is 3%.

People tend to forget a few people got jobs when they hear 9 more soldiers died.  

[angus]

Might even be higher since it has 5% for "other" (read: Nader) which might not pan out completely on election day.

But the gain is interesting since it should be Bush surging with great news on the economy as the article points out.

Margin of Error is 3%.

People tend to forget a few people got jobs when they hear 9 more soldiers died.  

I'm not sure I believe that.  People old enough to vote are also usually old enough to have more pressing concerns (e.g., where their next meal is coming from).  Take a look at Maslow's triangle.  Only the richest among us, and the poorest, will worry more about dead soldiers than their own livelihood.  And the poorest don't vote much, after all, if they did we'd never elect the likes of John Kerry or George Bush, would we?

[ShapeShifter]

wow. this surely is a surprise to be honest.

[Beet]

41% still believe the country is in a recession, even though the recession supposedly ended two years and seven months ago. The public's psyche is a severely lagging indicator, like it was in 1984... I'm predicting about 3/4 of these people will suddenly "realize" we're no longer in a recession sometime this fall.

[The Vorlon]

Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8

It doesn't matter what time of the year it is, Bush has to worry when his approval rating is dropping below 45%.  

[© tweed]

Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8

Where do you get those numbers?  I don't see them anywhere on the Rasmussen site.

[The Vorlon]

Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8

Where do you get those numbers?  I don't see them anywhere on the Rasmussen site.

Thats why I post them... it's a public service...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day  
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8

Where do you get those numbers?  I don't see them anywhere on the Rasmussen site.

Thats why I post them... it's a public service...

Hmm...Kerry has won the 1-day sample 5 days in a row.  Maybe the is more real than I thought.

[Rococo4]

Or maybe Bush is having a horrible week......it is April.  Kerry is still an awful candidate.  The only way he wins is if troops keep getting killed.  Not a great position to be in.

[© tweed]

Senator Kerry won last night's Rasmussen sample 48.2 to 39.2.

The huge drop in the Generic Congressional support, is odd to be so large.

Odd enough that I wonder if their is not some mothodological quirk driving it.

Emotional events such as dead Marines are complex events in how they impact public opinion.

Let us all hope the killing dies down soon in Iraq.


             I Day            3 day          7 day   
             Kerry  Bush  Kerry  Bush  Kerry   Bush
   
24-Mar   49.7   43.3   47.0   44.3   45.8   46.0
25-Mar   47.6   43.2   48.2   43.5   46.1   45.3
26-Mar   44.0   46.1   47.1   44.2   46.0   45.6
27-Mar   47.6   45.1   46.4   44.8   46.2   45.3
28-Mar   43.4   45.3   45.0   45.5   46.2   44.7
29-Mar   47.6   43.1   46.2   44.5   46.4   44.8
30-Mar   49.1   45.1   46.7   44.5   46.7   44.5
31-Mar   41.9   45.3   46.2   44.5   46.5   44.5
1-Apr     41.6   43.7   44.2   44.7   46.0   44.7
2-Apr     47.9   50.5   43.8   46.5   45.5   45.0
3-Apr     44.9   44.4   44.8   46.2   45.3   45.2
4-Apr     44.9   42.8   45.9   45.9   45.4   45.3
5-Apr     51.2   46.3   47.0   44.5   45.5   45.3
6-Apr     44.0   41.7   46.7   43.6   45.5   45.1
7-Apr     48.2   39.2   47.8   42.4   45.7   44.8

Where do you get those numbers?  I don't see them anywhere on the Rasmussen site.

Thats why I post them... it's a public service...

Do you work for Rasmussen?

[dunn]

bingo

[© tweed]

Today's rasmussen has Kerry's lead cut in half.

[Rococo4]

I guess it was a "bad day" for Kerry.  Not enough troops died.  Maybe if there is an ambush today, Kerry can gain a few points tommorow?