Geography of United States Elections

[H. Ross Peron]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qWYcSfGt5k&feature=PlayList&p=BC60989205348505&index=0&playnext=1

Fantastic lecture series by Dr. Martin Lewis. He even repeatedly recommends this site.

[johnbuterbaugh]

I watched this entire lecture series. Thanks for the suggestion. I really enjoyed it!

[Indy Texas]

That guy gets paid to "discuss with maps." So basically the Atlasian dream job.

[Miles]

That guy gets paid to "discuss with maps." So basically the Atlasian dream job.

Yep.

Good series; I'll forgive him for flipping the colors from Atlas maps.

[Mechaman]

Obama was ahead in West Virginia in October?

(around 1:25:00 in the first lecture)

WTFlol?

[johnbuterbaugh]

Obama was ahead in West Virginia in October?

(around 1:25:00 in the first lecture)

WTFlol?

Yep. Nate Silver projected Obama as being ahead in West Virginia at that time. I remember seeing that in October 2008 and having the same reaction as you. McCain ended up getting a sizable victory in West Virginia and winning by a slightly larger margin than Bush did.

[Tender Branson]

Obama was ahead in West Virginia in October?

(around 1:25:00 in the first lecture)

WTFlol?

Yeah, but only because of an ARGGGHHHHH poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=54

[Tender Branson]

For newer posters, a note regarding ARG:

How ARG conducts their polling:

First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat


Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula


It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for

ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used


ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number

NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67

[Indy Texas]

Obama was ahead in West Virginia in October?

(around 1:25:00 in the first lecture)

WTFlol?

I'll admit that early in the campaign, I assumed Obama could possibly win Arkansas or West Virginia based simply on the way Gore and Kerry performed there.