For newer posters, a note regarding ARG:
How ARG conducts their polling:
First, numbers are picked randomly out of a hat
Then, through a contract with the local school district, third grade students are told to take the numbers and use them as variables in the "The Supersecret Highly Intelligent Turnout formula", hereafter known as The S.H.I.T. formula
It doesn't matter if they do the math correctly - that's what the margin of error is for
ARG then randomly calls a number determined by The S.H.I.T. formula. Racial turnout is based upon what color pen the third-graders used
ARG then subtracts 7 from one of the candidates totals, 'cause 7 is their lucky number
NOTE: ARG is currently considering switching to a new polling methodology involving bloodhounds, a bundle of bananas, and a bingo parlor off I-67
