Time to face facts, the GOP is NOT a national party
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  Time to face facts, the GOP is NOT a national party
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Author Topic: Time to face facts, the GOP is NOT a national party  (Read 3437 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #25 on: December 27, 2013, 05:52:50 PM »

You are right, the GOP is a regional party. So is the Democratic party, which is all but shut out from about 20 States. Point is, America is now a bitterly geographically polarized country.
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NHI
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« Reply #26 on: December 27, 2013, 06:04:42 PM »

These are the states the GOP has carried every time in the past four presidential elections


These are the states with at least one Republican US Senator.


If the fact that no states adjacent to the Pacific Ocean have Republican US Senators or governors means the GOP isn't a national party, does the fact that there are no Democratic governors in the Gulf Coast states mean the Democratic Party isn't a national party?
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #27 on: December 27, 2013, 06:23:39 PM »


It's a little disingenuous to say that there are 12 states "up for grabs". They are considered "competitive" because the margins of victory have been under 10 points, but in the 72 state elections in those 12 states in the last 6 presidential elections, the Dems have won 50 for a winning percentage of nearly seventy percent (69.44% to be precise).  So until some of those states with narrow but persistent Democratic margins shift Red, the Democrats have a considerable advantage in the electoral college.
The problem with looking at the last six elections is that we don't really know how the current era is going to be considered.

There are some who seem to think that President Obama was a poor candidate dealt a bad hand, and that his four point win in 2012 suggests Democrats are favored to improve on the numbers in 2016.

My guess is that Obama's a good candidate, who had the benefit of running as an incumbent (whose party hadn't been in the White House long) under decent circumstances (Osama had a bullet in his head, the economy was recovering and Obama showed leadership in a national crisis just before the election) so his four point win doesn't suggest that the party is invincible. Since 1928, there's been a consistent trend of parties peaking and steadily declining, and right now it seems the Democrats peaked in 2008 (which doesn't mean they'll lose. Democrats peaked in 1936 and kept the White House for three further elections despite steady attrition.)

It may be that an era of Democratic domination of the presidency began in 1992.

I think we're more likely to be in an era of relative parity. The last six elections include four in which Democrats were naturally favored, and two in which a weak Republican still ended up getting reelected President (you could quibble on Gore winning the popular vote and Florida shenanigans, but it wouldn't have been an issue if he had been able to win the popular vote by four points.)

Looking at states Democrats won in the last six elections makes Wisconsin, which they won by less than half a point in 2000 and 2004, seem to be the equivalent of reliable blue states like Maryland and Massachusetts. I'm sure Republicans in December 1989 were happily looking at the electoral votes their party had won in the previous six elections.
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Bureaucat
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« Reply #28 on: December 27, 2013, 07:08:48 PM »

Time will tell.  I just thought saying all 12 states were up for grabs was misleading.  Within reach, certainly, but they're not all toss-ups.  I wouldn't consider North Carolina a toss-up either.  It's a Republican lean whereas most of the rest are Dem leans.

And by the way, I don't agree with the premise of this thread.  The GOP is most certainly a national party, although I think it's too tied to its Southern base for its own good in Presidential elections.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #29 on: December 27, 2013, 08:25:25 PM »

The GOP routinely wins 4-5 million votes in California.

Granted, none of those votes matter...Tongue
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #30 on: December 27, 2013, 08:32:26 PM »

You have a very special definition of national.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #31 on: December 27, 2013, 08:33:54 PM »

You have a very special definition of national.

But Gully, many on the Atlas don't know anyone who votes Republican these days, so obviously they can't be a national party.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: December 27, 2013, 08:38:29 PM »

You have a very special definition of national.

But Gully, many on the Atlas don't know anyone who votes Republican these days, so obviously they can't be a national party.

Though, to be fair to the delusional Democrats, the Republicans were even more delusional after 2004. Apparently a -0.5% and then a +2.4% win meant they had a "permanent majority".
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Beezer
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« Reply #33 on: December 27, 2013, 08:59:35 PM »

Take the states where the GOP controls at least two-thirds of the state governmental branches (and we all know they're to some extent more influential than the federal branch)...add up their electoral votes; voila, you're at 305 EVs.

Source: http://cookpolitical.com/file/Newsletter-_US_Map,_Skewed_Map,_and_Chart_1.pdf.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #34 on: December 29, 2013, 07:05:49 PM »

These are the states the GOP has carried every time in the past four presidential elections


These are the states with at least one Republican US Senator.


If the fact that no states adjacent to the Pacific Ocean have Republican US Senators or governors means the GOP isn't a national party, does the fact that there are no Democratic governors in the Gulf Coast states mean the Democratic Party isn't a national party?

Why are you talking about the Senate to bolster your argument?  This topic clearly stated that it was about Presidential elections... or did you not actually read the post.  And it's laughable that the gulf coast is comparable to the east and west coasts in your mind.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2013, 03:41:18 PM »

It is by no means an irrelevant point, particularly in an era of mininizing vote splitting.
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Penelope
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« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2013, 07:08:44 PM »

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988



Let's face facts. The Democratic Party just is not a national party anymore.

I mean, come on guys. Twice now, in the past five elections, they've lost in tremendous landslides and have only managed to continually win the District of Columbia. Come on, you lefties - just try to tell me I'm wrong.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2013, 07:16:50 PM »

^I still can't believe West Virginia voted for Dukakis.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #38 on: January 01, 2014, 11:39:19 AM »

Let's face facts. The Democratic Party just is not a national party anymore.

I mean, come on guys. Twice now, in the past five elections, they've lost in tremendous landslides and have only managed to continually win the District of Columbia. Come on, you lefties - just try to tell me I'm wrong.

But you don't understand! Its different with the GOP! White people will keep dying off and minority population and turnout will keep growing and there's no way the GOP can win among those groups so obviously they're in a national disaster and can't win anymore!
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #39 on: January 01, 2014, 03:01:53 PM »

^I still can't believe West Virginia voted for Dukakis.

The economy was bad there and it was still a reliably Democratic state at the presidential level. No real surprise.
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buritobr
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« Reply #40 on: January 01, 2014, 06:58:52 PM »

There are no regional parties. The GOP has 2/5 of the votes in the Northeast and the Democrats have 2/5 of the votes in the South.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #41 on: January 02, 2014, 11:39:44 PM »

Let's face facts. The Democratic Party just is not a national party anymore.

I mean, come on guys. Twice now, in the past five elections, they've lost in tremendous landslides and have only managed to continually win the District of Columbia. Come on, you lefties - just try to tell me I'm wrong.

Yes, the democrats weren't a national party then as the maps clearly show.  What's your point, or like most right wingers did you not have one?

The point being that you could make a case that the Democrats weren't a national party in 1989 only to have them win the PV in 5 of the next 6 Presidential elections.
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hopper
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« Reply #42 on: January 18, 2014, 12:56:24 AM »

The problem is the GOP is currently being ran by old folks who are stuck in the past but there are many younger GOPers who will soon take over and not be stuck in the past and move the GOP back to where it once was. We just have to wait for the older GOPers to die or get booted out.
Old folks? Its not like the Dems don't have their own old folks: James Carville, Stan Greenburg(I think, Rose DeLauro's husband), and David Axlerod isn't that young.

No its actually the younger Tea Party People that are damaging them like a Jennie Beth Martin or that Amy girl(no not Amy Holmes.) I mean those 2 women no disrespect but they have never run a campaign and it seems like they don't know what type of candidates the demographics of the country will support. Those 2 women are probably my age(in their early 30's) but the demography of the country has changed since they graduated High School and they just don't realize it I don't think. People like the Steve Schmidt's of the have run a campaign and the people that run the Tea Party they lack that experience of never running a campaign.
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hopper
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« Reply #43 on: January 18, 2014, 01:48:13 AM »

^I still can't believe West Virginia voted for Dukakis.
Well W. VA voted for Carter too in 1980 so don't be too surprised about Dukakis winning it in 1988. 1980 was a horrible year for Democrats as well at the Ballot Box. The Dems still had a little New Deal Coalition going on in the decade of the 1980's before Bill Clinton came along and the DLC policy's were put into effect in the early to mid 90's.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2014, 05:28:56 PM »

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988



Let's face facts. The Democratic Party just is not a national party anymore.

I mean, come on guys. Twice now, in the past five elections, they've lost in tremendous landslides and have only managed to continually win the District of Columbia. Come on, you lefties - just try to tell me I'm wrong.

Yes, the democrats weren't a national party then as the maps clearly show.  What's your point, or like most right wingers did you not have one?

Are you psychotic?  He's an independent...
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Mordecai
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« Reply #45 on: April 11, 2014, 11:03:00 AM »

If the GOP could survive the Great Depression, Watergate and Iran-Contra, it could survive anything.
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Spamage
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« Reply #46 on: April 12, 2014, 09:55:37 AM »

1972


Let's face facts. The Democratic Party just is not a national party anymore.

I mean, come on guys. Twice now, in the past five elections, they've lost in tremendous landslides and have only managed to continually win the District of Columbia. Come on, you lefties - just try to tell me I'm wrong.

Yes, the democrats weren't a national party then as the maps clearly show.  What's your point, or like most right wingers did you not have one?

Are you psychotic?  He's an independent...

Psychotic?  I guess when your small minded and unintelligent arguments fail you can always resort to name-calling.  It's the GOP way.

BTW, pro-tip, just because someone says they are an independent online does not mean that is actually the case.  I know this boggles your mind.

You have such terrible logic in regards to this, and I can't tell is your trolling or deluded into believing the GOP is no longer a natl. party. The recent Democratic victories in the White House (2 which were uncompilable with the Reagan and Nixon landslides) weren't even as huge as you play them up to be. Not to mention the fact that 2010 was a GOP landslide and early indicators point that 2014 may very well be the same. If you want to troll, please do it somewhere besides this forum.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #47 on: April 12, 2014, 11:45:20 AM »

The GOP is no less a national party today than the Democrats were not a national party in the 1980s. This premise is absurd. Do the Democrats currently (operative word: current) have an advantage? Sure. The Social Democrats in Sweden had an advantage for thirty years too. The pendulum will swing back eventually.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2014, 09:06:03 PM »

You are right, the GOP is a regional party. So is the Democratic party, which is all but shut out from about 20 States. Point is, America is now a bitterly geographically polarized country.

This is a predictable condition in a nation which uses a state-winner-take-all Electoral College system to elect President when it's two major parties become more ideologically focused than at any other time in our history.

If we elected the President by national popular vote, it would tend to nationalize both parties more.
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The Free North
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« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2014, 10:01:03 PM »

By this logical democrats are not a national party either...dumb argument is dumb
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