SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It isn't as if KD is leading a government at the moment either?

My point is that by pushing to the right they could become a strong junior coalition partner in a centre-right alliance as opposed to a weak one like they are now. Disgruntled M voters could vote for them to drag the government rightwards.

Sure, that definitely could work. I'm not really disagreeing with you. My point simply is that this might not be a good thing for the right-wing coalition overall.

[Gustaf]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It isn't as if KD is leading a government at the moment either?

My point is that by pushing to the right they could become a strong junior coalition partner in a centre-right alliance as opposed to a weak one like they are now. Disgruntled M voters could vote for them to drag the government rightwards.

Sure, that definitely could work. I'm not really disagreeing with you. My point simply is that this might not be a good thing for the right-wing coalition overall.

Well, if the Red-Greens can win with V...

DC, SD is something quite different. Sure, they encompass part of what I'm talking about but they're not really a traditionally conservative party in the sense I'm after.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It isn't as if KD is leading a government at the moment either?

My point is that by pushing to the right they could become a strong junior coalition partner in a centre-right alliance as opposed to a weak one like they are now. Disgruntled M voters could vote for them to drag the government rightwards.

Sure, that definitely could work. I'm not really disagreeing with you. My point simply is that this might not be a good thing for the right-wing coalition overall.

Well, if the Red-Greens can win with V...

Sweden is a left-leaning country. News at 11.

[Gustaf]

Election is clearly heating up. This amazing video can be viewed with English subtitles, recommended for one and all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAQDz6m2XPk

[The Lord Marbury]

Election is clearly heating up. This amazing video can be viewed with English subtitles, recommended for one and all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAQDz6m2XPk

What the F did I just watch??? And either way, this vid is far more amazing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYzNZj-P32o

Anyway, it seems like some righwing party folk on twitter are trying to turn Stefan Löfven accidentally saying that the small town of Knäred is in Skåne when it is in fact in the neighboring province of Halland, by using the hashtag #knäredgate and tweets like this:
"Comforting with a Prime Minister candidate who consciously acts on faulty information. Lucky we don't have nuclear weapons"
-André Assarsson (M), Moderate chief strategist in Stockholm County

Gee, the desperation to find any scandal on the left to distract from Nuon must be gigantic right now.

--------

Also, there's some really rather interesting numbers in the latest DN/Ipsos poll:

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Hmm... the Left Party and Feminist Initative both showing the most significant growth and at the same. One would think that F! would primarily take votes from V, though their recent pro-capitalism statement might hurt them somewhat there. Though I wonder if this is just an outlier since other polls have shown V at about 0,5-2 percent less support.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I don't think anyone is really treating "Knäredgate" as a real scandal. Though I guess it might hurt the Social Democrats' chances of increasing slightly in the strongly centre-right villiage.  

Hmm... the Left Party and Feminist Initative both showing the most significant growth and at the same. One would think that F! would primarily take votes from V, though their recent pro-capitalism statement might hurt them somewhat there.

Haha! Yeah, yeah, right. The only thing that is starting to seem a bit desperate is the centre-left's attempt to scare their voters for jumping ship to F!. But yeah I'm sure this alleged pro-capitalism statement that hasn't been covered in the media and that a political nerd like me didn't even know about must have a huge impact. Göran Greider would be proud.


Anyway an actual interesting thing that happened in the last days is that LO (Swedish Trade Union Confederation) went out and demanded that the boards of big business should be required to be 40% female. The problem? The organisation's own board is 83% male...   

They clearly live by a "do as we say, not as we do" motto.






   


 

[The Lord Marbury]

It hasn't been covered a lot in mainstream media but it made a lot of hay among the twitter feminist left where they find a lot of support. But it probably won't effect a significant amount of voters unless they go looking for more info on F!.

LO also went out and said that all of their boards would be fully equal by 2016 no matter if a law is passed. So your argument is invalid.

[The Lord Marbury]

The Centre Party Youth League (CUF) has done it again! In a tweet yesterday they encouraged their members to tweet pictures of what they called "zombie-like leftwing propaganda demonstrators" with the hashtag #thewalkingred tomorrow on Worker's Day. They've now been heavily criticized on social media, by Pirate Party leader Anna Troberg and mainstream papers like Aftonbladet for wanting to post pictures of unknowing demonstrators, which has been seen as highly intrusive and threatening to the demonstrators.

But I find it quite amusing that CUF is accusing the left of being zombie-like when their attempts to keep the barely breathing Centre Party relevant makes that description far more fitting for them.

EDIT: Now anti-racist watchdog blog "Not a rasist but..." and others are urging CUF to renounce the campaign because apparently it can be used by neo-nazis to register and indenty leftwingers. Already some known neo-nazi figures are writing under the hashtag on twitter. CUF chairperson Hanna Wagenius has given a non-apology where she said that she was saddened by the way the campaign was misunderstood.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

LO also went out and said that all of their boards would be fully equal by 2016 no matter if a law is passed. So your argument is invalid.

I don't believe in any such promises until I see it happen. Besides the fact that they have a 83% male board IN 2014, is troublesome, there's no reason to deny it. Not only is their own national board extremely unequal, if you look at the employee representatives they appoint to boards of big national corporations their record is even worse. It's like someone saying, "We think we should ban smoking, and that's why we will stop smoking... in maybe two years."

     

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is F! getting into parliament a real possibility?

[The Lord Marbury]

LO also went out and said that all of their boards would be fully equal by 2016 no matter if a law is passed. So your argument is invalid.

I don't believe in any such promises until I see it happen. Besides the fact that they have a 83% male board IN 2014, is troublesome, there's no reason to deny it. Not only is their own national board extremely unequal, if you look at the employee representatives they appoint to boards of big national corporations their record is even worse. It's like someone saying, "We think we should ban smoking, and that's why we will stop smoking... in maybe two years."

As for the walking red, personally I originally thought it was a really stupid initiative, but as it obviously makes the left's heads spin I've figured there must be some merit to it. I fail to see how photos taken in public places of people publicly demonstrating their views is intrusive. As for neo-nazis using it to identify left-wingers, you know if they wanted to do that they could just have went out and taken pictures themselves.       

IIRC, LO has been somewhat sceptical of requiring that boards that boards include X amounts of women so it's a good new step. Yes, it is definitely a big problem that the current board is 83% male but the 2016 deadline for change isn't at all probablematic because I believe the next LO congress isn't until 2016 so it would be impossible to change everything before then, unless they call for an extra congress but that won't happen.

It is when it's done with bad intent and without people's consent. And re: neo-nazis a popular hashtag on twitter with images posted by people who aren't neo-nazis gives them a greater opportunity to do that.

[Gustaf]

Is F! getting into parliament a real possibility?

I doubt it, to be honest. I still haven't gotten an explanation for why anyone should vote for them rather than V - they're basically the same party, with the same leader even. The only F! voter I know supports them because she thinks S hates immigrants and V is tainted by their cooperation with S.

[Lurker]

Yes, they really seem superfluous, as said earlier.

Why did Schyman leave Vänsterpartiet in the first place, btw?

As for that video... Wow.

[Tayya]

Is F! getting into parliament a real possibility?

I doubt it, to be honest. I still haven't gotten an explanation for why anyone should vote for them rather than V - they're basically the same party, with the same leader even. The only F! voter I know supports them because she thinks S hates immigrants and V is tainted by their cooperation with S.

Because for an increasing amount of people, what counts is how many times you say "I'm a feminist and an anti-racist!". FI happens to do that a lot. And if you don't vote for them you're not feminist or anti-racist enough, so you're a Nazi.

[Gustaf]

Yes, they really seem superfluous, as said earlier.

Why did Schyman leave Vänsterpartiet in the first place, btw?

As for that video... Wow.

She had to resign due to some scandal about fraud or something. After V expelled her she founded F!

[politicus]

Yes, they really seem superfluous, as said earlier.

Why did Schyman leave Vänsterpartiet in the first place, btw?

As for that video... Wow.

She had to resign due to some scandal about fraud or something. After V expelled her she founded F!

She admitted tax fraud in 2003 and left V in 2004 - officially because Vänsterpartiet didn't prioritize feminism enough...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

I believe it'll be a S-MP minority coalition with support from either V, or V and unoficially some Alliance party (most likely FP)

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfvén (S)   
   
Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)
Deputy Minister of Finance -  Per Bolund (MP)
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Margot Wallström (S)
Minister of Justice - Thomas Bodström (S)
Minister of Defense - Urban Ahlin (S)
   
Minister of Education - Gustav Fridolin (MP)
Minister of Commerce & Energy - Tomas Eneroth (S)
Minister of Social Affairs - Veronica Palm (S)
Minister of Rural Affairs - Matilda Ernkrans (S)
Minister of Environment -  Åsa Romson (MP) (She'll also be Deputy PM)
Minister of Migration & Equality - Anders Lago (S)
Minister of Labour - Carin Jämtin (S)
Minister of Culture & Sports - Evin Cetin (S)
   
Minister of Foreign Aid - Laila Naraghi (S)
Minister of Housing - Ylva Johansson (S)
Minister of Social Security -  Gunvor G. Ericson (MP)
Minister of Financial Markets - Jens Henriksson (S)
Minister of Science - Mikael Damberg (S)
Minister of Regions & Infrastructure - Sven-Erik Bucht (S)

20 ministers, 10 men and 10 women, 16 Social Democrats, 4 Greens.


I'll also make a prediction of changes in party leadership after the election:

V, S, and MP leaders will all be reelected.

Fredrik Reinfeldt will be replaced as M leader by Hillevi Engström. (Borg doesn't want the top job.)

Annie Lööf will probably be replaced as C leader by Anders W Jonsson.

Jan Björklund is also a goner no matter what and will be replaced as FP leader by Birgitta Ohlsson.

Göran Hägglund is safe as long as the KD survives the 4% threshold.

Jimmie Åkesson is safe. 


Gustaf, Joel, Tayya, go ahead and disagree with me.
 

 

[The Lord Marbury]

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

I believe it'll be a S-MP minority coalition with support from either V, or V and unoficially some Alliance party (most likely FP)

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfvén (S)   
   
Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)
Deputy Minister of Finance -  Per Bolund (MP)
Minister of Foreign Affairs - Margot Wallström (S)
Minister of Justice - Thomas Bodström (S)
Minister of Defense - Urban Ahlin (S)
   
Minister of Education - Gustav Fridolin (MP)
Minister of Commerce & Energy - Tomas Eneroth (S)
Minister of Social Affairs - Veronica Palm (S)
Minister of Rural Affairs - Matilda Ernkrans (S)
Minister of Environment -  Åsa Romson (MP) (She'll also be Deputy PM)
Minister of Migration & Equality - Anders Lago (S)
Minister of Labour - Carin Jämtin (S)
Minister of Culture & Sports - Evin Cetin (S)
   
Minister of Foreign Aid - Laila Naraghi (S)
Minister of Housing - Ylva Johansson (S)
Minister of Social Security -  Gunvor G. Ericson (MP)
Minister of Financial Markets - Jens Henriksson (S)
Minister of Science - Mikael Damberg (S)
Minister of Regions & Infrastructure - Sven-Erik Bucht (S)

20 ministers, 10 men and 10 women, 16 Social Democrats, 4 Greens.


I'll also make a prediction of changes in party leadership after the election:

V, S, and MP leaders will all be reelected.

Fredrik Reinfeldt will be replaced as M leader by Hillevi Engström. (Borg doesn't want the top job.)

Annie Lööf is a goner no matter what and will be replaced as C leader by Anders W Jonsson.

Jan Björklund is also a goner no matter what and will be replaced as FP leader by Birgitta Ohlsson.

Göran Hägglund is safe as long as the KD survives the 4% threshold.

Jimmie Åkesson is safe. 


Gustaf, Joel, Tayya, go ahead and disagree with me.
 

 

I agree with most of this although I would give Damberg Commerce instead of Eneroth, swap Ylva Johansson and Veronica Palm, and I don't think Bodström will be returning to cabinet-level politics.

[Tayya]

I'd also agree with most of it. In regards to the party leaders, I think Reinfeldt will be replaced with Minister of Infrastructure Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd (Hillevi Engström would be too left-wing on women's issues). Birgitta Ohlsson will indeed be the new Liberal leader, and will possibly help a progressive social agenda come through paid with restrictive economic reforms (I don't think S+V+MP will have a majority). Göran Hägglund has no successor until Ebba Busch or Ella Bohlin have enough experience. However, I'm going out on a limb and say that Annie Lööf will stay on - the Centre Party has invested too much in her, and she won't leave freely, meaning that booting her will lead to havoc.

I predict a result looking somewhat like this. Apply a margin of error of 3% for S and M, 1.5% for MP, V and SD, and 1% for the others:

Social Democrats: 33.0%
Greens: 8.0%
Left: 7.5%

Moderates: 24%
Liberals: 6%
Centre: 4.5%
Christian Democrats: 4.5%

Sweden Democrats: 9%
Feminist Initiative: 2.5%
Others: 1%

So, let's see what we can do about the cabinet. I've added a percentage score indicating how certain I am about a person. Some scores are split into certainty of being in the cabinet and certainty of holding my predicted cabinet portfolio.

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfven (S)
Leader of the Social Democrats, former Chairman of the Metalworkers' Union 100%
Minister for EU Affairs - Åsa Westlund (S)
MEP 67%
  
Minister for Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)
Shadow Minister for Finance, former State Secretary and Deputy Executive of the Tax Agency 100%
Deputy Minister for Finance and Minister for Financial Markets -  Per Bolund (MP)
Spokesperson for Financial Affairs, MP, former Stockholm Commissioner in Opposition 95%/60%
Minister for Regional Affairs - Anna-Caren Sätherberg (S)
Spokesperson for Regional Affairs, Åre City Council Minority Leader 25%

Minister for Foreign Affairs - Margot Wallström (S)
Former Minister for Social Affairs, former European Commissioner 50%/40%
Minister for Trade - Anna Johansson (S)
Gothenburg Deputy Mayor 60%/30%
Minister for Foreign Aid - Urban Ahlin (S)
MP, Deputy Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee 75%/30%

Minister for Justice - Morgan Johansson (S)
MP, Former Minister for Public Health 85%/70%
Minister for Migration Affairs - Ardalan Shekarabi (S)
MP, Former Social Democratic Youth League Chairman 67%/50%

Minister for Defense - Peter Hultqvist (S)
MP, Chairman of the Defense Committee, former Executive Chair of Borlänge 95%

Minister for Commerce - Mikael Damberg (S)
MP, Social Democratic Parliamentary Group Leader 100%/75%
  
Minister for Education - Gustav Fridolin (MP)
MP, Green Party Spokesperson 100%/70%
Minister for Schools - Ibrahim Baylan (S)
MP, Former Minister for Schools, Deputy Chairman of the Education Committee 85%/65%
Minister for Equality, Democracy and Consumer Affairs - Anders Wallner (MP)
Party Secretary 35%

Minister for Rural Affairs - Matilda Ernkrans (S)
MP, Chairwoman of the Environment and Agriculture Committee 70%

Minister for the Environment - Åsa Romson (MP)
MP, Green Party Spokesperson 100%

Minister for Infrastructure - Carin Jämtin (S)
Party Secretary, former Minister for Foreign Aid, former Stockholm Minority Leader 100%/30%
Minister for Housing - Veronica Palm (S)
MP, Deputy Chairman of the Civil Affairs Committee 100%

Minister for Social Affairs - Tomas Eneroth (S)
MP, Former State Secretary, Deputy Chairman of the Social Security Committee 100%/45%
Minister for Health Care and Public Health - Lena Hallengren (S)
MP, Former Deputy Minister for Education, Deputy Chairman of the Social Affairs Committee 60%/35%
Minister for Social Security - Gunvor G. Ericson (MP)
MP, Spokesperson for Social Security, Deputy Parliamentary Group Leader, former Södermanland Region Commissioner 40%

Minister for Employment - Tobias Baudin (S)
Deputy Chairman of the Swedish Trade Union Confederation 60%

Minister for Culture - Ylva Johansson (S)
MP, former Deputy Minister for Social Affairs, former Minister for Schools 70%/30%

24 ministers, 12 men and 12 women, 19 Social Democrats, 5 Greens. 2 with foreign background, 1 LGBT.

[Lurker]

Won't the Greens demand some more prominent portfolios?

[Tayya]

Won't the Greens demand some more prominent portfolios?

Romson has Environment locked up, Fridolin wants Education, and they have few others that can compete for Foreign Affairs or Justice. Defense is a no-no considering their pacifist views. If former spokesperson Maria Wetterstrand could be convinced to return to politics she'd be a solid candidate for Foreign Affairs, but Margot Wallström would be even more solid - especially if she wants it - and Wetterstrand has her kids in Finland 50% of the time and probably doesn't want the job.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'm going out on a limb and say that Annie Lööf will stay on - the Centre Party has invested too much in her, and she won't leave freely, meaning that booting her will lead to havoc.

The problem is that her support internally seems to be slipping as well, and if the election result looks anything like the polls at the moment I have a hard time seeing her survive. That's why I guess she'll be replaced. I think it'll be by Anders W Jonsson but it might also be by Anna-Karin Hatt.  

Your governmental prediction looks solid. Baudin is an intresting possibility I haven't considered before. Though I doubt there'll be 24 ministers. The opposition has criticized the government for having such a huge government, and the only reason the current one is so huge is so that all four parties can have decent representation. That won't be a problem for a S+MP coalition.    

Won't the Greens demand some more prominent portfolios?

They should demand Foreign Affairs, and get Maria Wetterstrand on it. But Fridolin has made it clear he wants Education, and I doubt the Social Democrats will agree to surrender both portfolios. Especially since Wallström has expressed an interest in returning to high level politics. (In which case there is only one possible position for her.)

[The Lord Marbury]

Here's my take. 22 ministers, 5 MP, 17 S, 11 women, 11 men.

Prime Minister - Stefan Löfven (S)
Minister for EU Affairs - Åsa Westlund (S)
  
Minister for Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)
Minister for Financial Markets -  Per Bolund (MP)

Minister for Foreign Affairs - Margot Wallström (S)
Minister for Trade - Tomas Eneroth (S)
Minister for Foreign Aid - Urban Ahlin (S)

Minister for Justice - Morgan Johansson (S)
Minister for Migration - Ardalan Shekarabi (S)

Minister for Defense - Peter Hultqvist (S)

Minister for Social Affairs - Carin Jämtin (S)
Minister for Public Health and Care Services - Lena Hallengren (S)
Minister for Social Security - Gunvor G. Ericson (MP)
  
Minister for Education - Gustav Fridolin (MP)
Minister for Schools - Ibrahim Baylan (S)
Minister for Culture - Anders Wallner (MP)

Minister for Rural and Regional Affairs - Anna-Caren Sätherberg (S)

Minister for the Environment and Deputy Prime Minister - Åsa Romson (MP)

Minister for Infrastructure - Elvy Söderström (S)

Minister for Enterprise - Mikael Damberg (S)

Minister for Employment and Equality - Ylva Johansson (S)
Minister for Housing, Democracy and Consumer Affairs - Veronica Palm (S)

[Tayya]

@Swedish Cheese: Your knowledge of C is obviously superior to mine, and the fact that I live in Stockholm might not help in that regard. I'd agree that Jonsson (parliamentary Group Leader) would win - Anna-Karin Hatt (Minister for IT and Energy) seems to me like an insider without any grassroots support. It would be a nice change to see Eskil Erlandsson (Minister for Rural Affairs) win, though.

I put 24 because I felt MP would want 5 cabinet posts because C, FP or KD never got that many and they would have to score better than I think they'll do (MP overperforms in polls) to gain 5/22.

As is apparent by now, our predictions are very similar. This is possibly because of great minds thinking alike, possibly because this is currently the most likely outcome and possibly because we steal from each other.

[Gustaf]

I broadly agree with SwedishCheese on the party leaders post-election.

I also think S-MP is the best bet currently as the new government.