SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Hnv1]

I see the north is the leftiest area in all of Sweden, but it's also sparsely populated and "rural". what makes such an area that should be by all accounts conservative so left?

[freefair]

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Awesome thread! Thanks SC!

[Lurker]

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

Is this really a general pattern though? Even in the US, there are several exceptions to this "rule". Or looking at Spain: Madrid, Valencia, etc. - conservative-leaning major cities.


Hnv1: the Northern areas are generally poorer than the country at large, with a big working class. Voting patterns in Sweden have historically been quite class-based, and still are to some extent. As such, it makes sense that the Social Democrats would be dominant there.

[DL]

I see the north is the leftiest area in all of Sweden, but it's also sparsely populated and "rural". what makes such an area that should be by all accounts conservative so left?

I see this as very comparable to Canada where the NDP tends to sweep northern Ontario and northern Manitoba etc... Northern Sweden is a lot like northern Ontario, lots of forestry and mining and many unionized workers in those industries...it's a very different kind of rural from what you get in the south where you have more actual farming.

[DL]

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

Is this really a general pattern though? Even in the US, there are several exceptions to this "rule". Or looking at Spain: Madrid, Valencia, etc. - conservative-leaning major cities.


Hnv1: the Northern areas are generally poorer than the country at large, with a big working class. Voting patterns in Sweden have historically been quite class-based, and still are to some extent. As such, it makes sense that the Social Democrats would be dominant there.

What about France? Historically Paris was a Gaullist stronghold while some of the strongest leftwing citadels were in rural parts of the southwest?

[Donerail]

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

Is this really a general pattern though? Even in the US, there are several exceptions to this "rule".

Many of those exceptions in the US seem to prove freefair's point - the sparsely populated rural Midwestern counties (like Pepin in Wisconsin, Fillmore, Kittson, Lake and Houstin in Minnesota, Sargent in North Dakota) that went for Obama largely match up to those that were settled by Scandinavians.

[Tayya]

Social issues are generally not big deals compared to economic ones up here.

Also, to clarify - the Liberals' flirt with being tough on immigration was not really about numbers of immigrants, but more about integration politics and proposals such as citizenship tests like those employed in several other countries.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I see the north is the leftiest area in all of Sweden, but it's also sparsely populated and "rural". what makes such an area that should be by all accounts conservative so left?

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

I KNEW that this question/discussion would come up! (As it always does) So I've already prepared an answer for it!

"In Sweden (or Scandinavia) cities vote for the right while rural areas vote for the left!"
   - Common statement both on and out-side of this board.

Yes to a certain extent… but it’s far from the entire truth, and all in all a gruesome oversimplification.

What is more correct is, that Swedes mostly vote based on their economic class. If you are a well-off lawyer you will most likely be a right-winger, and if you’re lower-class and unemployed you’ll vote for the left. This means that well-off urban areas are center-right, while poor small towns and villages are center-left.

Still there are plenty of poor center-left bastions in the cities, as well as some very right-wing rural areas. So if America was like Sweden, San Francisco and Manhattan would certainly not be left-wing, but Detroit still would, so it doesn’t really matter if a place is urban or not wether it'll be centre-left or centre-right. It does have some relevance, but on the party level, not on the left vs. right level. 

To make an example, take this extraimly rural precinct not far from where I grew up. It doesn't contain a single village with a population over 150. A majority of the inhabitants live on farms.     

The left doesn't even break 20%. Clearly rural does not mean left.

And to compare, let's take this urban precinct in central Malmö. The right doesn't even break 20%.

So why do we think that in Sweden, rural areas vote left, and urban areas vote right?
Well two reasons really. The Swedish north and Stockholm.


The north of Sweden isn't like the rest of the country. It's huge, but with a very small population to fill out it's seize. It's like Alaska, but unlike Alaska it's really really left-wing. Why? It actually has nothing to do with being rural. Most of the north isn't actually more rural than the rest of Sweden. Once again the answer is economics. The northern cities, are old industrial cities. The people who live there today mostly come from blue-collar backgrounds. The same goes for the country side.

The rural north's economy isn't based on agriculture, as most other rural places in the world. It's based on mining, forestry and other similar blue-collar labour work, and that is why the country-side there votes like industrial cities.

   
Stockholm on the other hand isn't industrialized. The city has never been dominated by blue-collar voters, but white-collar voters. White-collar in Sweden is much more well off, and thus much more inclined to vote for the right. This combined with Stockholm's ridiculous expensive housing-costs, and being the seat of the power elite for 700 years, has made it a right-wing strong-hold.

But if you look at Gothenburg, and Malmö none of those cities are strongly right-wing. Gothenburg actually tends to be bellwether, while Malmö historically has been a Socialist strong-hold.


So in conclusion:

Yes, some rural areas in Sweden vote strongly for the left, but far from all.
Yes, some urban areas in Sweden vote strongly for the right, but far from all.

If a rural area's economy is based on agriculture, it'll be centre-right, if it's based on industry it's centre-left.

If an urban area's economy is based on industry, it'll be centre-left, but if it's based on services it'll vote for the centre-right. 

To illustrate my point, here's a map of the Gotland constituency:


Gotland - The right map is left vs right.



 

[Tayya]

About 1/5 of the incumbent MPs, 67 of 349 (19.2%) are retiring in 2014. No Sweden Democratic MP has announced retirement, but two (couldn't find which ones) are undecided. Notable retirements:

Tommy Waidelich, 50, Stockholm County - Former MEP and Social Democratic spokesman for Finance under Håkan Juholt, noted as completely incompetent.
Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became known for a Facebook initiative (!) against street violence after a young boy died in a brawl. Has an infamously big chin.
Gunnar Axén, 46, Östergötland - Chairman of the Social Security Committee. Was accused of sexual harassment, but the accusation never went to court - he decided to retire immediately anyways.
Cristina Husmark Persson, 66, Skåne West - Former Minister of Social Security. Was blamed for unpopular Social Security policy changes, but it was later revealed that the Department of Finance was responsible for the "unintended effects".
Henrik von Sydow, 37, Halland - Chairman of the Taxation Committee and potential rising star.
Abdirizak Waberi, 44, Gothenburg - Former principal for an Islamic school and involved in Islamic organizations that have been linked to radical Islamism. Waberi has never gotten under enough fire to force his resignation, though.
Peter Eriksson, 55, Stockholm County - Former spokesperson for the Green Party, retiring to run for the European Parliament. Term limited by Green internal rules.
Ulf Holm, 44, Skåne South - 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag, former MEP and the formally mightiest LGBT individual in Sweden. Term limited by Green internal rules.
Mehmet Kaplan, 42, Stockholm City - Muslim pacifist, was onboard a Ship to Gaza. Resident of the Stockholm suburb Husby, where the minor riots of June 2013 started, and is running for Stockholm City Council to work with local issues.
Ulf Nilsson, 68, Skåne South - Deputy Chairman of the Culture Committee.
Fredrick Federley, 35, Stockholm City - member of the Centre Party's more libertarian wing, former Centre Youth League chairman. Running for the European Parliament, will likely not get voted in.
Johan Linander, 39, Skåne South - Deputy Chairman of the Justice Committee.
Åsa Torstensson, 55, Västra Götaland West - Former Minister of Infrastructure.
Josefin Brink, 44, Stockholm City - Rising star, named as potential party leader.
Lars Ohly, 56, Stockholm County - Former party leader.
Annelie Enochson, 60, Gothenburg - Sweden's Michele Bachmann.
Mats Odell, 66, Stockholm County - Former Minister of Communications and Minister of Financial Markets and Local Government, chairman of the Enterprise Committee.

Total:
18/112 Social Democrats (16.1%)
20/107 Moderates (18.7%)
5/25 Greens (20%)
6/24 Liberals (25%)
5/23 Centrists (21.7%)
0/20 Sweden Democrats (0%)
9/19 Leftists (47.4%)
4/19 Christian Democrats (21.1%)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The key point is that Swedish industrialisation was a little weird - essentially because so much of it was resource based - and this has had important long-term implications with regards to class, the distribution of wealth and so on.

[Tayya]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

We'll see where he ends up...

[MaxQue]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

We'll see where he ends up...

What is the issue with Mr. Abele?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Adding a few more maps to the thread because, what the hell.

[Tayya]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

We'll see where he ends up...

What is the issue with Mr. Abele?

He is a very upper class kid that became famous thanks to the Facebook page "Stop street violence now" which is slacktivism at its worst, somehow got onto the Moderates' Riksdag list as number 15, at only 18 years old, and barely got in thanks to the Moderates performing very well and a large number of ministers being picked from the Stockholm party list. Basically, he's very unqualified and represents many things that people don't like, especially the slacktivism part.

[Tayya]

Great maps, Sibboleth!

Here are some precinct results from Stockholm, to give an example of how the urban constituencies vote:

Högalid 8 Bergsund N (Northwestern edge of hipster Mecca Södermalm)
Moderates 25.51%
Greens 22.71%
Social Democrats 18.95%
Left Party 12.06%
Liberal Party 6.67%
Centre Party 5.81%
Sweden Democrats 3.34%
Christian Democrats 2.58%
Feminist Initiative 1.72%
Others (Pirate Party) 0.65%
Turnout: 78.93%

Hägersten 10 Aspudden S (Gentrified suburb in SW Stockholm)
Greens 22.80%
Moderates 22.50%
Social Democrats 21.83%
Left Party 11.40%
Centre Party 7.30%
Liberal Party 6.48%
Christian Democrats 2.68%
Sweden Democrats 2.16%
Feminist Initiative 1.94%
Others (Pirate Party, Socialist Justice Party) 0.89%
Turnout: 85.05%

Engelbrekt 11 Universitetet Ö (Students' apartments close to the University of Stockholm)
Greens 21.67%
Moderates 19.50%
Left Party 14.71%
Social Democrats 14.55%
Liberal Party 12.23%
Centre Party 8.05%
Christian Democrats 3.25%
Pirate Party 2.94%
Sweden Democrats 2.01%
Others (Feminist Initiative, European Workers' Party, Classical Liberal Party) 1.07%
Turnout: 76.17%

Farsta 10 Hökarängen N (Lower middle class suburb)
Social Democrats 33.26%
Moderates 20.64%
Greens 14.78%
Left Party 12.11%
Sweden Democrats 6.57%
Liberal Party 5.13%
Christian Democrats 2.98%
Centre Party 2.26%
Feminist Initiative 1.03%
Pirate Party 1.03%
Others (National Democrats, write-ins) 0.20%
Turnout: 74.53%

Spånga 10 Tensta V (Immigrant-heavy poor apartment area)
Social Democrats 65.35%
Left Party 10.00%
Greens 8.73%
Moderates 8.03%
Liberal Party 1.83%
Sweden Democrats 1.69%
Christian Democrats 1.41%
Socialist Justice Party 1.27%
Centre Party 0.28%
Others (Pirate Party, Feminist Initiative, write-ins) 1.41%
Turnout: 59.11%

Adolf Fredrik 5 Vasastaden S (Generic inner city)
Moderates 42.27%
Liberal Party 12.00%
Centre Party 10.67%
Greens 9.95%
Social Democrats 9.33%
Christian Democrats 7.69%
Left Party 3.49%
Sweden Democrats 2.87%
Others (Feminist Initiative, Pirate Party) 1.23%
Turnout: 84.51%

Västerled 1 Smedslätten V (upper-scale suburb, large houses)
Moderates 50.94%
Centre Party 13.93%
Christian Democrats 12.81%
Liberal Party 11.62%
Greens 4.69%
Social Democrats 3.22%
Sweden Democrats 1.05%
Left Party 0.84%
Others (Feminist Initiative, Pirate Party, Unity) 0.91%
Turnout: 82.08%

Oscar 3 Oscars kyrka SV (upper-class inner city apartment area)
Moderates 58.98%
Christian Democrats 12.27%
Centre Party 9.90%
Liberal Party 8.76%
Social Democrats 3.42%
Greens 3.07%
Sweden Democrats 1.75%
Left Party 1.31%
Others (Feminist Initiative, Pirate Party) 0.53%
Turnout: 80.07%

Note: The Socialist Justice Party are trotskists, the European Workers' Party LaRouchites and Unity is "spiritual", similar to the German Violet Party.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

We'll see where he ends up...

What is the issue with Mr. Abele?

He is a very upper class kid that became famous thanks to the Facebook page "Stop street violence now" which is slacktivism at its worst, somehow got onto the Moderates' Riksdag list as number 15, at only 18 years old, and barely got in thanks to the Moderates performing very well and a large number of ministers being picked from the Stockholm party list. Basically, he's very unqualified and represents many things that people don't like, especially the slacktivism part.

I don't mind him being young and upper-class us much as I mind him being a freaking idiot.
We had a debate here in Lund in '11 where the youngest MP's from each of the parties where represented. Abele was miles below any of the other MPs. Maria Ferm, William Petzäll, Emil Källström, might have been almost as young, but they knew what they were doing, Abele, not so much.   

[FredLindq]

This is how the Swedish farmers voted in 2010:
Moderaterna 35% (+24 compared to 2006)
Centerpartiet 31% (-25)
Kristdemokraterna 13 (-2)
Folkpartiet 0 (-7)
Total centre-right 79%

Vänsterpartiet 9% (+9)
Socialdemokraterna 4% (-3)
Miljöpartiet 4% (+4)
Total centre-left 17%

Sverigedemokraterna 4 (+4)

Some figures seems odd for example Vänsterpartiet and Folkpartiets.

http://www.valforskning.pol.gu.se/digitalAssets/1355/1355929_rapport-2011-1-v--ljarnas-partier-1956-2010.pdf

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I had no idea farmers were so right-wing... Didn't they in good part back the SAP in the 1930s-70s?

Also, what share of the population do they represent today? Is it a marginal 1-2% like in France or are they actually an important demographic?

[palandio]

If you take a closer look at the statistic, you see that the sample size for farmers was 23 in 2010 and 27 in 2006. That's almost nothing and I doubt that you can draw any meaningful conclusions from that. :-(

[FredLindq]

In 1976 they were 6% off the voters today they are 1-2%

Jordbrukare (farmers)
1976
C 69%
M 15%
S 9%
FP 5%
KD 1%
V 1%

Centre-right 90%
Centre-left 10%

However the centerparty was more agrarian and centrist in these days. The got 24% nationally in 1976 (25% in 1973) benefitting from the Green wave and anti nuclear.

[FredLindq]

This is true however the centre-left has got between 7% and 19% from 1976 to 2010. So the centre-right gest at least 80% of the farmers votes.

[Tender Branson]

Farmers are generally a very right-leaning folk.

In the 2008 election here, GfK did an election day survey (n=1800) that included a breakdown for farmers:

78% ÖVP
  9% BZÖ
  8% FPÖ (=> 95% Right)

  2% SPÖ
  1% Greens (=> 3% Left)

  2% Others

http://www.didactics.eu/index.php?id=1549

Neither of the 3 election day surveys in the 2013 election had a breakdown for farmers, because all of them used a subgroup called "Self-employed/Agriculture", which also involves company owners that have nothing to do with farming.

Just checked:

Every 3rd vote for the ÖVP comes from a farmer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure how farmers in France vote. They're probably solidly right-wing, but I'd imagine that the left could break 10% or even 15% among them.