SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[DL]

In Canada farmers in English Canada vote solidly conservative. It wasn't always that way out west. The CCF which was the predecessor to the NDP used to sweep rural Saskatchewan or at least be competitive up to the 90s. But farming has changed. The small family farms have vanished and farming is now big business. Farmers are now essentially small business owners and they vote accordingly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, farmers are a right-wing bunch in most industrialised countries. There will be some (basically always smallholders) exceptions here and there but less than the 'exceptions' in most social groups,¹ and there will be some farmers in some places who will vote for parties that are not right-wing for various culture war reasons,² but that will generally be it. All of the farmers in the valley I grew up in were Tories, as were their wives and children.

If you still have a peasantry it can be - though still wouldn't usually be - a little different, but then we're actually talking of a different social group. Farm labourers - a different group again - have traditionally voted to the left in many countries, but mechanisation means that there are a hell of a lot less of those than there used to be.

<sub>1. My one great uncle was a hill farmer and a solid Labour man. Which is statistically unusual.
2. All of those Plaid voting farmers in North Wales, for instance. But they're still a very right-wing bunch.</sub>

[KingSweden]

I wonder how I can participate in this election next year. I have dual American and Swedish citizenship, but I've never lived in Sweden. I should probably contact my nearest consulate...

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how I can participate in this election next year. I have dual American and Swedish citizenship, but I've never lived in Sweden. I should probably contact my nearest consulate...

Maybe Sweden has a similar voting system like we do ?

In our election system, if you have citizenship but have never lived here (for example because your parents have moved abroad before you were born) you can fill out a document to be added to the election rolls and send it to the city that you have a connection with (for example the last city where your parents were registered before they moved abroad).

It reads like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But yeah, ask the consulate. They will know what to do in the Swedish case.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I wonder how I can participate in this election next year. I have dual American and Swedish citizenship, but I've never lived in Sweden. I should probably contact my nearest consulate...

I just checked Valmyndigheten's webpage for info, and the bolded part seems like it might be a problem.

http://www.val.se/det_svenska_valsystemet/rostratt/utlandssvenskar/index.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So it seems you might not be allowed to vote.
You should definatley double check with the consulate though.

[Tender Branson]

Read more here:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.val.se/pdf/electionsinsweden_webb.pdf

[KingSweden]

Well I was born in the US, but my parents hadn't gotten US citizenship yet so I have citizenship that way. A few years ago though I had to reapply for Swedish citizenship because I turned 20 or 21 (can't remember which) and they let me keep it, even though I'd never lived there.

TL;DR, I'll ask the consulate!

[Tender Branson]

Well I was born in the US, but my parents hadn't gotten US citizenship yet so I have citizenship that way. A few years ago though I had to reapply for Swedish citizenship because I turned 20 or 21 (can't remember which) and they let me keep it, even though I'd never lived there.

TL;DR, I'll ask the consulate!

Wikipedia does not really sound optimistic for your case. Apparently, you really need to be registered at some point in some city in Sweden so you can vote (a historical connection of your parents in Sweden does not count):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Sweden#Voter_eligibility

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Where in Sweden are your parents fom KingSweden?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Sweden#Voter_eligibility
[/quote]

Tender, didn't you read the stuff in Swedish I quoted. It says that exactly the same you're saying now. I'm of course joking, I know you don't speak Swedish.

[FredLindq]

My last "Poll off Polls"
http://www.moderatvg.se/lindqvist/1441/

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very promising numbers! What a shame that the election is so far away...

[FredLindq]

Promising that the extreme right will get almost 10%?!

The centre-left will loose support when they present their plans, just as they did in 2010.

[Tayya]

Fred is probably right - the opposition is more of a clean slate right now, and they will probably lose ground. However, this time the Social Democrats will be able to present their own budget tailored to attract swing voters (I don't think "aargh WHO WILL YOU GOVERN WITH" will work too well, though it will sap a few percentage points) and the people won't constantly be reminded that Mona Sahlin and Thomas Östros might get into power.

I'd still say that Stefan Löfven is favored to win in September, but the margin of victory will be less than 5% and the government definitely has a fighting chance.

For comparison, a poll of polls compiled by the pollster Novus from four years ago and the current edition:

S 34.4%/33.1% (-1.3%)
MP 10.4%/10.2% (-0.2%)
V 5.8%/7.2% (+1.4%)
S+V+MP 50.6%/50.5% (-0.1%)

M 26.3%/25.0% (-1.3%)
FP 7.4%/5.6% (-1.8%)
C 5.1%/4.3% (-0.8%)
KD 4.0%/3.9% (-0.1%)
M+FP+C+KD 42.8%/38.8% (-4.0%)

SD 4.7%/9.4% (+4.7%)

Others 1.9%/1.3% (-0.6%)

Let's add the swing from December 2009 to September 2010 to the 2013 numbers and we get:

S 29.4%
MP 7.1%
V 7.0%
S+MP+V 43.5%

M 28.7%
FP 5.3%
C 5.8%
KD 5.5%
M+FP+C+KD 45.3%

The current poll numbers will not be the final results, remember that.

[politicus]

Promising that the extreme right will get almost 10%?!

That's still a low share in contemporary Europe for a country with PR and they are by far the weakest right wing populist party in mainland Scandinavia.

[FredLindq]

Thats not true. Iceland does not have one. And Sverigedemokraterna are the only ones that are considering cooperating with Front National, i.e. they are the most extreme ones.

And the argument that all other nordic counties have strong rightwing populist parties is just sad. So sad.

[politicus]

Thats not true. Iceland does not have one. And Sverigedemokraterna are the only ones that are considering cooperating with Front National, i.e. they are the most extreme ones.

And the argument that all other nordic counties have strong rightwing populist parties is just sad. So sad.

Iceland is not part of mainland Scandinavia .

I am not sure SD are really to the right of DPP. DPP just has a more professional communication and PR strategy that is tighly controlled by the party leadership which focus on upholding a moderate public image. The same could be said for the True Finns.

I think that given globalization and mass immigration a right wing populist party is basically an integrated part of the modern European party systems.
You can avoid right wing populists in Parliament if you have FPTP or strong elements of it, or if the conservative party accepts extremist fractions, like in Spain, but otherwise every (former) ethnically defined nation state in Europe with significant non-European immigration (ie not Iceland), is bound to get one party of that ilk in Parliament.

Given its demograhics with high level of immigration and history (ethnically defined culture, relatively bad integration, very highly developed welfare state thats now under pressure),  Sweden should be fertile ground for right wing populists and the main reason why SD has been relatively weak is IMO that it has been run by amateurs + the lack of a charismatic (or even semi-charismatic) leader.

[Lurker]

With regards to Sverigedemokraterna, what is the most likely scenario if we get a result like this:

Alliansen: 44%
Soc.dem.+V+MP: 47%
Sverigedemokraterna: 7%

Will Reinfeldt resign with such a result, or would he try to stay in government (possibly by an agreement with SD?)?

[Tayya]

With regards to Sverigedemokraterna, what is the most likely scenario if we get a result like this:

Alliansen: 44%
Soc.dem.+V+MP: 47%
Sverigedemokraterna: 7%

Will Reinfeldt resign with such a result, or would he try to stay in government (possibly by an agreement with SD?)?

Reinfeldt has said that he will resign if S+V+MP becomes bigger than the Alliance, but later half-backtracked it by implying that he would only do that if all the red-green parties enter government? I don't remember exactly nor understand.

This is a likely result, by the way, and we will probably see an S+MP minority coalition that has to suck up to the right-wing parties. I can't see policy coordination with SD being introduced.

It will be hell.

[Gustaf]

It's still political suicide to cooperate with SD in any way so it won't happen after this election. I agree that an outcome where Red-Green wins a plurality but fall short of a majority seems like the most realistic outcome at this point.

There has been a lot of speculation on what will happen then. I personally think a pure Red-Green coalition government would be untenable and is unlikely. There has been speculation on an S-MP-FP coalition (I guess similar to the German traffic light concept ) but I remain skeptical.

Right now I think S-MP is the most likely result out of that, but MP switching to the right can also not be ruled out.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yeah, I also think a S+MP minority coalition working across the aisle would be the most likely out-come if the left doesn't have its own majority, and in my view I actually wouldn't mind that so much. I could live with a wing-clipped compromising left government.

 

[Tayya]

Prognostication: V will surpass MP in 2018 if such a government happens.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, I also think a S+MP minority coalition working across the aisle would be the most likely out-come if the left doesn't have its own majority, and in my view I actually wouldn't mind that so much. I could live with a wing-clipped compromising left government.

 

Isn't this basically what Denmark has right now?

[FredLindq]

My bets are on a Reinfeldt III minority government. By I am obviously biased.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I also think a S+MP minority coalition working across the aisle would be the most likely out-come if the left doesn't have its own majority, and in my view I actually wouldn't mind that so much. I could live with a wing-clipped compromising left government.

Ugh, this sounds like it has the potential to be a HORRIBLE government.

[Tayya]

Yeah, I also think a S+MP minority coalition working across the aisle would be the most likely out-come if the left doesn't have its own majority, and in my view I actually wouldn't mind that so much. I could live with a wing-clipped compromising left government.

Ugh, this sounds like it has the potential to be a HORRIBLE government.

I wish I knew of a better place to move.