SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

Two conflicting results from two lesser polling institutes:

Metro/YouGov:
Social Democrats 31.9% (-1.2%)
Green Party 7.9% (-1.3%)
Left Party 7.6% (+0.4%)

Moderates 25.7% (+1.9%)
Liberal Party 5.7% (-0.6%)
Centre Party 5.2% (+2.2%)
Christian Democrats 4.3% (+0.6%)

Sweden Democrats 10.0% (-2.8%)

Others 1.7% (+0.7%)

Aftonbladet/United Minds:
Social Democrats 32.5% (+0.1%)
Green Party 8.9% (+0.9%)
Left Party 8.4% (+0.4%)

Moderates 24.0% (-0.1%)
Liberal Party 6.1% (-1.5%)
Centre Party 4.5% (+0.5%)
Christian Democrats 3.3% (-1.3%)

Sweden Democrats 10.8% (+0.8%)

Others 1.5% (+0.1%)

Conclusion: The Demoskop poll was probably an outlier, but the result might lie closer to United Minds than to YouGov.

[Tayya]

Skop:
Social Democrats 32.7% (-2.5%)
Green Party 9.7% (+0.8%)
Left Party 7.0% (-0.1%)

Moderates 27.2% (+1.6%)
Liberal Party 6.3% (+0.4%)
Centre Party 4.5% (+1.0%)
Christian Democrats 3.1% (-0.5%)

Sweden Democrats 8.4% (-0.9%)

Others 1.1% (+0.2%)

This news month has been somewhat less bad for the government, so a slight bounce does make sense. Note that all polls hitherto has shown C rising, for some reason.

I think we can confirm that Demoskop appeared to be a slight outlier, unfortunately.

We're basically back to what Skop showed in the September poll, for the record. No change from those numbers is greater than 1%.

[politicus]

Its hard to read yellow, could you show SD with some other colour?

[Tayya]

There we go.

[Tayya]

Relevant to this thread: Found an article from political blog makthavare.se on a research paper about polling institutes and their biases.

Mean distance to poll composite:
Novus 0,022
Sifo 0,024
SCB 0,026
Ipsos/Synovate 0,026
YouGov 0,027
Demoskop 0,032
Skop 0,032
United Minds 0,034
Sentio Research 0,035

Bias:
Novus, SCB, Sifo, YouGov: Very small bias
Demoskop: Overestimates FP, MP; underestimates "Other parties"
Ipsos: Overestimates M, C, FP, KD; underestimates SD
Sentio: Overestimates SD, "Other parties"; underestimates S, M, MP, C, FP, KD
Skop: Overestimates M, C, FP, KD; underestimates "Other parties"
United Minds: Overestimates SD, "Other parties"; underestimates S, M, C, FP, KD

Note that the averages is compared to a poll composition, a "poll of polls", and not election results.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Note that all polls hitherto has shown C rising, for some reason.

Well our party leader has not appeared much on TV or in the newspapers lately, which helps.

[Tayya]

Note that all polls hitherto has shown C rising, for some reason.

Well our party leader has not appeared much on TV or in the newspapers lately, which helps.

It will be interesting to see the election campaign when her face appears on all the election posters. I heard you're putting Eskil Erlandsson up front this time - should be a wise choice, especially north of Dalälven and south of Klarälven.

I feel like I'm one of the ones who hate Annie Lööf the least these days and I'm very very very far from her in about every aspect possible.

[Lurker]

So, the difference between the blocks in the various polls

                 
               
                                                  Difference (pp)
Demoskop:       52,3% - 36,2%   ------ 16,1

United Minds:   49,8% - 37,9%  ------ 11,9 

Metro/YouGOV: 47,4% - 40,9% ------ 6,5

Skop:                49,4%  -  41,1% ----- 8,3



Quite a lot of variation, though I guess some of these firms are more reliable than others.

[The Lord Marbury]

A recent poll by SIFO shows that the government has lost their big lead in economic issues, which used to be their main advantage over the opposition. They still hold a small lead but it's basically a tie now.

Which party would be the best to lead the country?

Moderate: 33 %

Social Democrats: 43 %

Don't know: 24 %

Which party would handle economic issues the best?

Moderate: 41 %

Social Democrats: 40 %

Don't know: 19 %

Which party would be the best at lowering unemployment?

Moderate: 29 %

Social Democrats: 51 %

Don't know: 21 %

Which party would be the best at securing good welfare?

Moderate: 22 %

Social Democrats: 59 %

Don't know: 19 %

Which party would be the best at creating a good school system?

Moderate: 28 %

Social Democrats: 44 %

Don't know: 28 %

[Tayya]

With today's DN/Ipsos poll coming out, the January poll series is finished.

Party - - - - - - Demoskop - United Minds - YouGov - Skop - - - Sifo - - Novus - Ipsos

Moderates - - - 22.3% - - - - - 24.0% - - - - 25.7% - 27.2% - 25.4% - 24.5% - 25.0%
Liberals - - - - - 5.8% - - - - - - 6.1% - - - - - 5.7% - - 6.3% - - 6.5% - - 5.1% - - 6.4%
Centre - - - - - - 4.5% - - - - - - 4.5% - - - - - 5.3% - - 4.5% - - 3.7% - - 3.5% - - 3.1%
Chr. Dems. - - - 3.6% - - - - - - 3.3% - - - - - 4.3% - - 3.1% - - 3.3% - - 3.5% - - 3.4%

Soc. Dems. - - - 34.7% - - - - - 32.5% - - - - 31.9% - 32.7% - - 32.9% - 33.8% - 34.0%
Greens - - - - - - 11.1% - - - - - 8.9% - - - - - 7.9% - - 9.7% - - 9.4% - - 9.2% - - 9.9%
Left - - - - - - - - 6.5% - - - - - - 8.4% - - - - - 7.6% - - 7.0% - - 8.3% - - 8.1% - - 9.1%

Sweden Dems. - 9.8% - - - - - 10.8% - - - - 10.0% - 8.4% - - 9.2% - - 11.0% - - 7.3%
Others - - - - - - - 1.7% - - - - - 1.5% - - - - - 1.6% - 1.1% - - 1.3% - - - 1.3% - - 1.7%

Bloc difference - 16.1% - - - - - 11.9% - - - - 6.5% - 8.3% - - 11.7% - - 14.5% - 15.1%

Average:
Moderates: 24.9%
Liberals: 6.0%
Centre: 4.2%
Chr. Dems.: 3.5%

Soc. Dems.: 33.2%
Greens: 9.4%
Left: 7.9%

Sweden Dems.: 9.5%
Others: 1.5%

Bloc difference: 12.0%

[FredLindq]

http://www.moderatvg.se/lindqvist/1456/

[Tayya]

The Moderates are going bonkers right now. This week they announced that the prognostications for the economy had been overtly rosy, and that there would be no room for tax reductions until 2018. Instead, they announced that they would raise the taxes on vehicles, alcohol and tobacco.

Today, at a press conference, Minister of Finance Anders Borg announced that the student grants will be lowered by 300 SEK (45 USD) per month, with the amount accessible through national student loans will be increased by 1000 SEK (155 USD) per month - a net increase, but with a bigger amount to be repaid. They also want to remove the possibility for all 68-year olds to have their student loans written off.  One can argue whether it's good or bad policy, but it looks like trying to balance the budget on the back of students, which is not good optics at all.

The only people I've seen that are happy about the student loan/grant policies (most of my peers are students, of course, and thus not impartial) are the head of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce, the CEO of Timbro (Sweden's Cato Institute) and Centre Party-affiliated activists (the libertarian variant).

By the way, in the latest SIFO polls, the Alliance are 16.8 %-points behind the non-SD opposition, with the Centre Party obtaining 2.8% of the vote. No comment needed.

[DL]

By the way, in the latest SIFO polls, the Alliance are 16.8 %-points behind the non-SD opposition, with the Centre Party obtaining 2.8% of the vote. No comment needed.

Yippee! Be nice to see Sweden return to the social democratic fold

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The government has apparently decided that they want to go out with a bang as big as 1994, and  turn as many people as possible against them before the election. But what do I know, giving your voter base and the swing voters the finger at the same time might be a stroke of brilliance I have yet to understand,   

[Antonio the Sixth]

The government has apparently decided that they want to go out with a bang as big as 1994, and  turn as many people as possible against them before the election. But what do I know, giving your voter base and the swing voters the finger at the same time might be a stroke of brilliance I have yet to understand,   

Maybe they have realized they were going to lose anyway and want to leave as big a "policy mark" as they can.

[Lurker]

I don't see why everyone is writing off the Alliance so early. The left ended up losing by 5-6% last time around, despite leading by 5% in the Sifo poll from March 2010. http://www.tns-sifo.se/media/262436/vb%20mar%202010%20svd.pdf

There'll probably be another "hung parliament", IMO, at least if Sverigedemokraterna get 8-9% or so.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

You of course never should write anyone off more than 6 months before the election, a lot can happen.

But the situation at the moment is very different from 2010. The government is tiered and out of ideas, the centre-left parties actually have credible and competent leaders, and the right has lost lots of confidence in political areas where they've traditionally had the upper hand, such as schools, defense, and law and order. Nor are the centre-left parties taking victory for granted this time, but actually fight, while the right seem convinced that they can lean back because since there was a huge recovery last time, the same will happen magically this time.    

There'll probably be another "hung parliament", IMO, at least if Sverigedemokraterna get 8-9% or so.

Probably, but with S+Mp+V as the dominating block in the hung parliament.

[Zanas]

So how is Löfven managing his reconversion from unionist to politician ? It strikes me as a bit odd he was for years leader of a large union and in SAP's executive board, I guess you don't have a "charte d'Amiens"...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So how is Löfven managing his reconversion from unionist to politician ? It strikes me as a bit odd he was for years leader of a large union and in SAP's executive board, I guess you don't have a "charte d'Amiens"...

So far, so good for him. His political inexperience shines through quite a bit at times, but so far it's mostly endeared him to the public as being a genuine guy and not your ordinary career politician who cares more about themselves than serving the people. But it will be interesting to see how he holds up in the pressure of an election campaign.

Haha, no! LO (The Swedish Trade Union Confederation) is basically the right arm of the party. Or SAP is their right arm, I'm not sure which is actually more correct.   

[politicus]

So how is Löfven managing his reconversion from unionist to politician ? It strikes me as a bit odd he was for years leader of a large union and in SAP's executive board, I guess you don't have a "charte d'Amiens"...

Thats actually the classical Scandinavian SD combo. Its not so common anymore, but still viewed as an ideal by many traditional SDs.

[Zanas]

Yeah, it also was the model of the British Labour party, though I think it's been quite lost now. In France we never really worked that way (though there have been CGT and PCF executives, but generally it was hidden).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, it also was the model of the British Labour party, though I think it's been quite lost now.

Oh no, the National Executive is still full of TU representatives (12 out of 33: the next largest group - representatives of constituency parties - get six. And in practice it is invariably 13 out of 33 as the post of Party Treasurer pretty much always goes to a Trade Unionist) and the TU block vote is still an important feature at Conference.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, France has always had the dumbest unions in the world. For this as for everything else, Sweden rules.

[Tayya]

This poll doesn't tell us anything new and is probably an outlier (mainly for the Greens) but I would just like to note it because the numbers are, well, embarrassing:

Moderates: 22.6%
Liberals: 5.1%
Centre: 3.6%
Chr. Dems.: 3.3%

Soc. Dems.: 32.7%
Greens: 12.5%
Left: 8.4%

Sweden Dems.: 10.0%
Others: 1.8%

Bloc difference: 19.1%
Undecided: 14.3%

Even if all the undecided voters voted for the Government in the end, they would still be smaller than the left bloc together.

Even I'm having to consider changing my belief in the government having a chance.

[Heimdal]

So how is Löfven managing his reconversion from unionist to politician ? It strikes me as a bit odd he was for years leader of a large union and in SAP's executive board, I guess you don't have a "charte d'Amiens"...

Thats actually the classical Scandinavian SD combo. Its not so common anymore, but still viewed as an ideal by many traditional SDs.

The Norwegian Labour Party hasn’t had a leader with background from the trade unions since Trygve Bratteli (1965-1975), but that has hardly affected their influence with the party.
But it looks like the Alliance is really in a bad shape, with both the Christian Democrats and the Agrarians below 4 %. What surprises me most is the low support for the Moderates. Is there any reason for their (apparent) downward trend? Are people just tired of them, or have they done anything to alienate their voters?