SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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  SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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politicus
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« Reply #250 on: May 03, 2014, 07:49:53 AM »

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)


Is she going to be a strong or weak MoF? How does she "rate" compared to Anders Borg?
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Tayya
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« Reply #251 on: May 03, 2014, 08:08:29 AM »

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)


Is she going to be a strong or weak MoF? How does she "rate" compared to Anders Borg?

She'll do fine enough, especially compared to the other Shadow Ministers for Finance (Tommy Waidelich? EEK!). She'll probably have a large influence in the cabinet since Stefan Löfven is more of a consensus-builder than a ram-through-my-opinions type of leader.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #252 on: May 03, 2014, 08:32:00 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2014, 03:18:51 PM by Swedish Cheese »

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)


Is she going to be a strong or weak MoF? How does she "rate" compared to Anders Borg?

As Tayya said, the best they've had in a long, long time. She has a solid economic background, and from what I've seen from her she has a good agressive (in a positive way) rhetoric that is unusual for that position.

As is apparent by now, our predictions are very similar. This is possibly because of great minds thinking alike, possibly because this is currently the most likely outcome and possibly because we steal from each other.


I think it might be a combination of the three.

For the matter, I also agree with the two of you that if a S-MP coalition keeps the EU-minister portfolio, Åsa Westlund is a given for that position. (The fact that she's not running for re-election as an MEP is pretty telling of the fact that Löfvén has other plans for her at home.   
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #253 on: May 03, 2014, 08:38:07 AM »

So here's a bold and brave prediction for the next government:

Minister of Finance - Magdalena Andersson (S)


Is she going to be a strong or weak MoF? How does she "rate" compared to Anders Borg?

She'll do fine enough, especially compared to the other Shadow Ministers for Finance (Tommy Waidelich? EEK!). She'll probably have a large influence in the cabinet since Stefan Löfven is more of a consensus-builder than a ram-through-my-opinions type of leader.

Yep, pretty much this. Andersson also has a higher level of education in the area than Borg who never even got a degree. Of course he naturally has more experience with the political side of things, but Andersson's time as an advisor in the Prime Minister's Office and the Ministry for Finance between 1998 and 2006, as well as her 3-year stint as director of the Tax Agency certainly makes her one of the most qualified candidates for the job we've seen in recent history.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #254 on: May 05, 2014, 02:28:19 AM »
« Edited: May 05, 2014, 02:31:12 AM by The Lord Marbury »

The debate last night was pretty meh. Löfven's preformance was mediocre, all Alliance leaders were more interested in talking about the opposition than their own ideas, Fridolin brought up his teaching background, Åkesson always came back to immigration, news at 11.

The best preformance of the night was clearly Jonas Sjöstedt, especially when he brought up his own experience with unemployment.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #255 on: May 08, 2014, 09:41:30 PM »

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #256 on: May 08, 2014, 09:50:54 PM »

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again. 

No. It's 10 to 20 points behind in the polls.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #257 on: May 08, 2014, 10:17:43 PM »

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again. 

No. It's 10 to 20 points behind in the polls.

That may seem like a long shot, but I've seen parties come behind by further.  In France 2012 and Denmark 2011, the left held similar leads yet in both cases just barely scraped by.  It seems in much of Europe, polls tend to underestimate the right in its support, at least amongst mainstream right wing parties (they often overestimate the hard right).
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Tayya
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« Reply #258 on: May 09, 2014, 12:58:52 AM »

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

Yes. But it's no bigger than the Alliance's poll numbers (~36%) and shrinking every day.

Some say the "point of no return" is now in May-June when they went from down 5% to down 1 % to up 1% in 2010. I'm more generous, I think they have until August. If they aren't within 5% when the schools start in mid-August they're practically doomed unless the opposition is caught in a major scandal or suddenly become disastrous. Neither is looking all that likely.

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #259 on: May 09, 2014, 01:42:05 AM »

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

Yes. But it's no bigger than the Alliance's poll numbers (~36%) and shrinking every day.

Some say the "point of no return" is now in May-June when they went from down 5% to down 1 % to up 1% in 2010. I'm more generous, I think they have until August. If they aren't within 5% when the schools start in mid-August they're practically doomed unless the opposition is caught in a major scandal or suddenly become disastrous. Neither is looking all that likely.

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

I would say that even if they're 4-5% from the opposition in the August their chance of victory is still close to nonexistent unless there's a scandal or major campaign ****-up by the opposition. They need to be nearly dead even by then to have a chance to win on their own merits, IMO.

Latest Expressen/Demoskop poll:

Left - 8,7% (+0,5)
Social Democrat - 32,0% (-0,8)
Green - 10,0% (-0,5)

Centre - 4,3% (+0,6)
Liberal People's - 6,0% (+0,1)
Moderate - 23,0% (-1,4)
Christian Democrat - 3,9% (+0,2)

Sweden Democrats - 8,2% (-0,3)

Feminist Initiative - 3,0% (+2,2)

Alliance - 36,8% (-0,5)
Red-Greens - 51,0% (-0,9)
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Tayya
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« Reply #260 on: May 09, 2014, 03:13:58 AM »

Any chance the Alliance for Sweden might win again.  Although not too familiar with Swedish politics, here in Canada many on the left like point to Nordic Countries as examples we should follow and I like to point out 4 of the 5 Nordic countries have centre-right governments and since Denmark is likely to swing right in 2015, if Sweden sticks with the centre-right that would mean the right governs all Nordic Countries.  Considering how Sweden is doing better than most European countries, I would think that should help the governing party, mind you where I live we use first past the post rather than proportional representation thus coalitions are rare and majority governments (even if the winning party doesn't get over 50% which they usually don't) are the norm.

Yes. But it's no bigger than the Alliance's poll numbers (~36%) and shrinking every day.

Some say the "point of no return" is now in May-June when they went from down 5% to down 1 % to up 1% in 2010. I'm more generous, I think they have until August. If they aren't within 5% when the schools start in mid-August they're practically doomed unless the opposition is caught in a major scandal or suddenly become disastrous. Neither is looking all that likely.

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

I would say that even if they're 4-5% from the opposition in the August their chance of victory is still close to nonexistent unless there's a scandal or major campaign ****-up by the opposition. They need to be nearly dead even by then to have a chance to win on their own merits, IMO.

Latest Expressen/Demoskop poll:

Left - 8,7% (+0,5)
Social Democrat - 32,0% (-0,8)
Green - 10,0% (-0,5)

Centre - 4,3% (+0,6)
Liberal People's - 6,0% (+0,1)
Moderate - 23,0% (-1,4)
Christian Democrat - 3,9% (+0,2)

Sweden Democrats - 8,2% (-0,3)

Feminist Initiative - 3,0% (+2,2)

Alliance - 36,8% (-0,5)
Red-Greens - 51,0% (-0,9)


Like their French counterparts, I don't trust Team Red/Green on holding a slim lead. I guess I'm cautious by nature. But especially if the opposition lets their guard down, they could be in trouble.
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DL
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« Reply #261 on: May 09, 2014, 11:41:52 AM »


Like their French counterparts, I don't trust Team Red/Green on holding a slim lead. I guess I'm cautious by nature. But especially if the opposition lets their guard down, they could be in trouble.

Keep in mind that unlike in most European countries in Sweden the Social Democrats are the "natural party of government' that has been in power for most of the last century and are still viewed as the "safe comfortable old show" in a way they are not in other countries. There is no history of the SAP getting over-polling compared to actual results...and needless to say if red/green has a 16 point lead over the incumbent alliance - its all over...on top of that the polls suggest that some of the weaker parts of the government coalition such as the Centre party and the Christian Democrats may fall short of 4% and lose all their seats! People can scoff at that - but look at what happened to the FDP in Germany last September
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« Reply #262 on: May 09, 2014, 04:01:16 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2014, 04:08:50 PM by Lurker »

Feminist Initiative could really cause difficulties for the Red-Greens. As of that Expressen poll, there are 3 %points "wasted" (obviously, practically all of those who would consider voting for Schyman's party are left-wing voters). Right now it doesn't matter much, but if things narrows slightly it could help lead to a "hung parliament" - i.e., like today, with no bloc having majority of MPs.

Of course, if they do reach the treshold it's obvious who they will support.
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Lurker
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« Reply #263 on: May 09, 2014, 04:05:52 PM »

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

What do you reckon are the chances of this happening, If there is a "hung parliament", with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc?
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #264 on: May 10, 2014, 01:08:35 AM »

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

What do you reckon are the chances of this happening, If there is a "hung parliament", with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc?

IMO, the chance of the Alliance staying in government becomes much bigger. While the Sweden Democrats have voted with the Alliance in 8-9 times out of 10 in this parliament, the Red-Greens relying on SD for support in a similar way would be much harder if not impossible due to the more significant ideological differences present. Not to mention the uproar such a situation would cause among rank and file members in the red-green parties.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #265 on: May 10, 2014, 04:15:59 AM »
« Edited: May 10, 2014, 04:18:47 AM by Swedish Cheese »

It also would all really hang on how far the Red-Greens are from having their own majority. If they're short by just a few seats like the current government I don't think they'd have much trouble. (They could make a deal with FP/C/KD here and there, and just hope for the best the rest of the time) If they're short by any more than ten they'll have to figure something else out though. Bringing FP in to a potential S+MP coalition or something like that.

The idea that the Alliance stays on as a minority if the Red-Greens are larger than them is inconceivable however, since they would not be able to pass a budget then.     

My current prediction btw is the Alliance ending up between 40-42, the Left at 46-48, and the SD with 7-9 with another hung parliament as result. Though I'm sure that might change in the coming months. 
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Lurker
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« Reply #266 on: May 10, 2014, 05:53:11 AM »

The idea that the Alliance stays on as a minority if the Red-Greens are larger than them is inconceivable however, since they would not be able to pass a budget then.     

My current prediction btw is the Alliance ending up between 40-42, the Left at 46-48, and the SD with 7-9 with another hung parliament as result. Though I'm sure that might change in the coming months. 

My prediction is pretty simillar to yours. The gap between the "blocs" have tended to be pretty small in general elections - pretty sure the current lead will decrease.

Good point about the budget. In Sweden you don't need a parliamentary majority to pass one - correct? IIRC, the proposed budget that has the highest number of votes gets ratified, regardless of how big the plurality is.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #267 on: May 10, 2014, 06:52:34 AM »

The idea that the Alliance stays on as a minority if the Red-Greens are larger than them is inconceivable however, since they would not be able to pass a budget then.

I wouldn't say that it's inconcievable because that would require all Red-Green parties to vote for the same budget and put themselves in the precarious position of having to rely on SD not to vote against the government. This would be hard for all parties on the Red-Green side, but especially the Left Party. SD probably wouldn't be happy with de facto letting the Left Party into government either. No, if the Red-Greens end up the larger bloc but without a majority I'm betting that the most likely outcome is either a S+MP coalition which eventually invites FP to join or a continued Alliance government in some form.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #268 on: May 10, 2014, 11:44:22 AM »

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.
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Tayya
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« Reply #269 on: May 10, 2014, 12:05:21 PM »

The big problem is that none of the proposed scenarios if the Riksdag is hung seem easily doable. Thus, we can predict that chaos will happen.

Also, I found out today that I'm going to be a precinct worker. I'm excited, though sad that I'll probably miss most of my workplace's Election Night party.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #270 on: May 10, 2014, 01:37:35 PM »

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.
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Tayya
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« Reply #271 on: May 10, 2014, 01:56:14 PM »

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.

A coalition between the Social Democrats and Moderates would probably not work very well since it would either (temporarily, at least) include a demoted Fredrik Reinfeldt, which would not be appreciated by Stefan Löfven who would easily be outmaneuvered, or have the second largest party's leader as Prime Minister. If I was Stefan Löfven I'd refuse both alternatives.
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Lurker
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« Reply #272 on: May 10, 2014, 03:06:08 PM »

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.

There have never been one in Sweden ("Europe" is a bit too vague), with the exception of during WW2, so it's hard to say how it would work out.

It's totally out of the question though - for one thing, the mutual dislike between Moderaterna and the Social Democrats is too strong.
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« Reply #273 on: May 10, 2014, 05:30:05 PM »


While that idea has been discussed openly by prominent (retired) Labour and Conservative politicians in the past, and though many of their voters wouldn't mind, it's still impossible. The only way I could ever see it happening would be if the "centrist" parties took part as well, and even then it could probably only take place in some kind of emergency situation. For historical reasons, many in their "bases" would have a hard time reconciling with such a coalition, and it would be extremely unpopular amongst the Labour left.

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Gustaf
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« Reply #274 on: May 10, 2014, 06:40:45 PM »

A grand coalition is unlikely, yeah. I don't think it's totally impossible and it's more realistic now than it has been most of the time.

I agree with Tayya though that there is no good and easily workable scenario if it's a hung parliament. My FP friends pointed out to me that they would have to change leadership and stuff before they could join any such government as well.
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