SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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  SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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Author Topic: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD  (Read 96645 times)
Tayya
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« Reply #275 on: May 11, 2014, 02:53:20 AM »

A grand coalition is unlikely, yeah. I don't think it's totally impossible and it's more realistic now than it has been most of the time.

I agree with Tayya though that there is no good and easily workable scenario if it's a hung parliament. My FP friends pointed out to me that they would have to change leadership and stuff before they could join any such government as well.

Indeed, and FP needs to start to prepare the grassroots basically immediately after the election if they would want to enter an S-led government. While the left-liberals could probably swallow supporting Stefan Löfven if he's governing from the centre, we have to remember that FP - like most Swedish parties - is a wide tent in its own way. They're probably going to elect a guy this year who went campaigning for John McCain in 2008, after all.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #276 on: May 11, 2014, 11:43:45 AM »

A grand coalition is unlikely, yeah. I don't think it's totally impossible and it's more realistic now than it has been most of the time.

I agree with Tayya though that there is no good and easily workable scenario if it's a hung parliament. My FP friends pointed out to me that they would have to change leadership and stuff before they could join any such government as well.

Indeed, and FP needs to start to prepare the grassroots basically immediately after the election if they would want to enter an S-led government. While the left-liberals could probably swallow supporting Stefan Löfven if he's governing from the centre, we have to remember that FP - like most Swedish parties - is a wide tent in its own way. They're probably going to elect a guy this year who went campaigning for John McCain in 2008, after all.

Most FP activists I know are very anti-S. It would have to be sold as a move to shut out SD if it is to have any traction at all. V would have to be excluded as well. I think it will matter a lot on the specifics of the outcome. If S+MP beats the Alliance in terms of seats maybe they can wing it on their own, even if that'd be pretty shaky.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #277 on: May 12, 2014, 04:29:03 AM »
« Edited: May 12, 2014, 04:42:16 AM by The Lord Marbury »

The latest poll aggregation:

Left: 8,7 %
Social Democrats: 33,3 %
Green: 9,9 %

Centre: 3,6 %
Liberal People's: 6 %
Moderate: 23,3 %
Christian Democrats: 3,5 %

Sweden Democrats: 8,7 %

Alliance: 36,4%
Red-Greens: 51,9%


Others: 3,2 %

-----

It seems as if the government's hope of the spring budget proposition and shadow budgets being the game changers like 2010 isn't happening.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #278 on: May 17, 2014, 11:46:55 AM »

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)


M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)


SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)



Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins!  Wink
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #279 on: May 17, 2014, 12:03:49 PM »

Sifo's May poll:

MP: 10,3% (-0,3)

C: 5,0% (+1,2)

KD: 3,5% (-0,1)



To make a comparison with Sifo's May poll four years ago in '10, C at that time had 5,1% and KD 3,5% as well but they managed to increase to 6,6% and 5,6% respectively for the election in September. So the parties might be hopeful for their survival.

Similarly MP actually had 10,7% in that poll, but dropped to 7,3% in the election.   


http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/sifo-maj_3567348.svd
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Franzl
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« Reply #280 on: May 17, 2014, 12:06:01 PM »

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)


M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)


SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)



Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins!  Wink

That would be particularly awesome if the Alliance turned things around....again. Never say never, though... Smiley
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #281 on: May 17, 2014, 12:11:40 PM »

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)


M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)


SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)



Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins!  Wink

Well I would surmise that the Alliance itself would actually need to make some gains from the red-green drop in order to have a chance. Wink
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politicus
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« Reply #282 on: May 17, 2014, 12:15:08 PM »

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)


M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)


SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)



Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins!  Wink

Well I would surmise that the Alliance itself would actually need to make some gains from the red-green drop in order to have a chance. Wink

It looks more likely that FI will actually get in. With 2,9% it looks doable.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #283 on: May 17, 2014, 12:55:19 PM »

Sifo's May poll:

S: 30,9% (-1,2)
V: 7,3% (-1,1)
MP: 10,3% (-0,3)
TOTAL = 48,5% (-2,6)


M: 23,2% (-1,3)
C: 5,0% (+1,2)
FP: 7,0% (+0,3)
KD: 3,5% (-0,1)
TOTAL = 38,7% (+0,1)


SD: 8,8% (+0,5)
FI: 2,9% (+1,6)



Red-Green slipping below 50%...

So it begins!  Wink

Well I would surmise that the Alliance itself would actually need to make some gains from the red-green drop in order to have a chance. Wink

It looks more likely that FI will actually get in. With 2,9% it looks doable.

It's certainly doable, but the question is if their support will increase or even remain at this level once the campaign really starts to heat up. Failure to get into the European parliament could also lead to a drop in support.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #284 on: May 17, 2014, 05:51:19 PM »

Failure to get into the European parliament could also lead to a drop in support.

I really believe that is the crucial factor actually. If they get in they will be ensured continued media attention and hype until September, and people will start to consider them as a real option. If they fail to get in on the other hand, people will start to feel much more unsure about their chances, and they might soon be drowned out by the other parties and other issues.   
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Tayya
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« Reply #285 on: May 18, 2014, 05:28:47 AM »

It should be remembered that it's only one poll, and the first that has shown such a steep drop for S and V. Let's see what the next Ipsos and Novus (considered reliable) polls say, and especially May's SCB megapoll.
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windjammer
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« Reply #286 on: May 19, 2014, 05:32:20 AM »

I have a question for SwedishCheese and for Gustaf.

I mean, in the USA, you're both definitely seen as moderate. But in Sweden, is that the case too? I mean, are you "potential swing voters" like in the US or you definitely choose the center right coalition?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #287 on: May 19, 2014, 06:35:58 AM »

I have a question for SwedishCheese and for Gustaf.

I mean, in the USA, you're both definitely seen as moderate. But in Sweden, is that the case too? I mean, are you "potential swing voters" like in the US or you definitely choose the center right coalition?

SwedishCheese is a committed Centre Party voter, so yeah, you can count him safely on the right coalition. Gustaf hasn't made up his mind yet, but I recall the choices he's considering are mostly on the right side as well.
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Enno von Loewenstern
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« Reply #288 on: May 19, 2014, 07:02:51 AM »

Fråga till svenskarna här:

Am i right, if i say that SD will need another two terms to be considered a partner to tolerate the center-right parties?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #289 on: May 19, 2014, 08:16:37 AM »

Windjammer, while I am undecided in this election I am generally a right-wing supporter in Sweden. This is quite common - I have friends from abroad who settled here who are firm left-wingers in their home countries but think our left is just too over the top and crazy. Tongue

Enno, they definitely aren't now. I think they will become eventually, but yeah something like what you say at least.
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windjammer
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« Reply #290 on: May 19, 2014, 08:21:24 AM »

Windjammer, while I am undecided in this election I am generally a right-wing supporter in Sweden. This is quite common - I have friends from abroad who settled here who are firm left-wingers in their home countries but think our left is just too over the top and crazy. Tongue

Enno, they definitely aren't now. I think they will become eventually, but yeah something like what you say at least.

To be honest, it doesn't surprise me at all Tongue.
The Swedish right seems to be extremely moderate while the Swedish left seems to be really far to the left of the other countries from Europe Tongue.

But seriously, I understand the differences between the 3 leftist parties. But are there many differences between the parties from the current majority?

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #291 on: May 19, 2014, 08:32:59 AM »

Windjammer, while I am undecided in this election I am generally a right-wing supporter in Sweden. This is quite common - I have friends from abroad who settled here who are firm left-wingers in their home countries but think our left is just too over the top and crazy. Tongue

Enno, they definitely aren't now. I think they will become eventually, but yeah something like what you say at least.

To be honest, it doesn't surprise me at all Tongue.
The Swedish right seems to be extremely moderate while the Swedish left seems to be really far to the left of the other countries from Europe Tongue.

But seriously, I understand the differences between the 3 leftist parties. But are there many differences between the parties from the current majority?

I get the impression that it has more to do with what niche the party is appealing to.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #292 on: May 19, 2014, 09:21:50 AM »

I don't really see how the modern Swedish left could be considered "extremist" in any way. From what I've seen in this thread, the SAP are mostly a left-leaning big tent government party at this point.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #293 on: May 19, 2014, 10:10:59 AM »

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them. Wink

But overall the type of discourse here is just way to the left of most countries, even if it isn't always reflected in policy.

And of course SAP is one thing. Then you have V and MP who want to do things like abolish homework and grades in the schooling system. The Greens even used to propose things like abolishing interest rates and stock.

For example, as I recall Obama's tax plan in 2008 was similar to what the right campaigned on here in 2006. And the Swedish left branded that as basically reactionary fascism. So people I meet who are ardent labour voters in places like UK or Australia tend to sympathize with the right here. That's a generalization, of course, and we've definitely shifted quite a lot to the right in the last few years but when I formed my political beliefs if was still quite true.

However, this thread should maybe refocus on the election - sorry to derail with my subjective evaluations. Wink

---------------------------

As for the other question - policy wise there is very little difference between the centre-right parties today. There used to be more historically. The main difference as DC says has to do with the type of voter. Even that is disappearing though. They do focus on different policy areas. FP is into education, C into small businesses and KD social policy.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #294 on: May 19, 2014, 11:26:50 AM »

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them. Wink

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie. Roll Eyes
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Tayya
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« Reply #295 on: May 19, 2014, 12:42:00 PM »

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #296 on: May 19, 2014, 01:23:56 PM »

Branding the Swedish left as extreme or non-extreme in a international perspective is really simplifying a complicated issue, especially if you're doing so with the Social Democrats. If you look at the tax levels that all three of the left-wing parties in this country wants, sure they are certainly extreme compared to any other non-nordic country. But that is not all there is to it.

If we look at the currently hot issue of austerity, for example, the Social Democrats have since the days of Persson had a staunchly pro-austerity position. Something completely foreign to many left-wingers. Austerity is supposed to be something you have forced upon you by mean German right-wingers, not yourself passionately advocate for. In that particular issue they probably rival the SDP for most right-wing left-wingers in Europe at least.

So it is really a mixed bag that you can't easily place as what is considered centre-right in one country, is considered centre-left in another.    

But now, after having (sort of) defended SAP I'll need to have a long long shower while crying in a fetal position. Excuse me.  
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windjammer
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« Reply #297 on: May 19, 2014, 03:55:49 PM »

Sweden seems to be so interesting Cheesy
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Gustaf
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« Reply #298 on: May 19, 2014, 07:13:48 PM »

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.
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politicus
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« Reply #299 on: May 19, 2014, 08:00:00 PM »


There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.

Sweden has some weak ass Libertarians.
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