SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.

Hmm. I know at least one Swedish pro-Republican on the right (Roland Poirier Martinsson) but I did think there would bemore. I did write "economically", though, and some in the pro-Obama right wing might reconsider without the Tea Party and social conservatism.

[Gustaf]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie.

He was certainly not a pinko commie, not sure where you're getting that from me.

[Gustaf]

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.

Hmm. I know at least one Swedish pro-Republican on the right (Roland Poirier Martinsson) but I did think there would bemore. I did write "economically", though, and some in the pro-Obama right wing might reconsider without the Tea Party and social conservatism.

RPM is hardly a respected figure in Swedish Timbro circles.

There were a few Ron Paul supporters here and there. It is fair to say that social issues play a part, of course. But I think even economically the Swedish right isn't really as right-wing as one would expect.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie.

He was certainly not a pinko commie, not sure where you're getting that from me.

He is clearly sarcastic Gustaf. The rolling eyes on the end is suppose to be an indicator you know...

[Gustaf]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie.

He was certainly not a pinko commie, not sure where you're getting that from me.

He is clearly sarcastic Gustaf. The rolling eyes on the end is suppose to be an indicator you know...

No, of course, I know he's being sarcastic I just don't get about what. I was making clear that I certainly wasn't implying anything close to that statement.

It is true that there are nuances to the SAP compared to other left parties, like always.

[Lurker]

We must always the dual identity of SAP. It has always been against nationalisations of Swedish industry, making it much more libertarian than many equal parties in Western Europe.

I was going to make the same point. In fact not only more "libertarian" than most sister parties on those issues, but also more than many centre-right parties - at least in practice. Throughout the Social-Democratic "glory days", Sweden had one of the lowest levels of nationalisation in Europe, IIRC.

But then again, the popular idea of Sweden as particularly left-wing (a left-wing paradise or hellhole depending on whom you ask) has always been, in many ways, a myth.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

For the good fun of all of you I've spent the afternoon making maps, showing voter swings/shifts by constituency in the past three elections. Naturally it's centre-right (M+C+FP+KD) vs. centre-left (S+MP+V).

1998 -> 2002:


You can view the key here.


Top 5 swing/shift to the right

Gävleborg = + 6,6%
Norbotten = + 5,6%
Värmland = + 4,9%
Västerbotten = + 3,2%
Jämtland = + 2,4%

Top 5 swing/shift to the left

Stockholm City = + 6,3%
Gotland = + 5,8%
Skåne South = + 4,5%
Malmö = + 3,4%
Jönköping = + 3,4%


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

2002 -> 2006:


You can view the key here.


Top 5 swing/shift to the right

Stockholm County = + 16,2%
Stockholm City = + 16,0%
Skåne South = + 15,5%
Malmö = + 14,5%
Uppsala = + 14,3%

Top 5 smallest swing/shift from the left

Norbotten = - 3,9%
Värmland = - 5,3%
Kalmar = - 5,6%
Västerbotten = - 6,3%
Västra Götaland East = - 6,5%


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

2006 -> 2010:


You can view the key here.


Top 5 swing/shift to the right

Skåne South = + 10,0%
Västra Götaland West = + 7,1%
Skåne West = + 6,9%
Södermanland = + 6,7%
Kalmar = + 6,3%

Top 5 swing/shift to the left

Västerbotten = + 3,0%
Gotland = + 2,3%
Stockholm City = + 1,8%
Jämtland = + 0,3%
Norbotten = +/- 0,0%


Let me know what you think, or if you have any questions.

[Zanas]

Skane South, in particular, as well as Stockholm but a bit less, seem quite swingy. Is this just because they're the most populous areas, or is there something else ?

[politicus]

We must always the dual identity of SAP. It has always been against nationalisations of Swedish industry, making it much more libertarian than many equal parties in Western Europe.

SAP got further down the road to implementing economic democracy than any other European SD and large parts of the party had it as a core goal for more than a decade. Economic democracy with union controlled employee funds is an actual attempt to realize the socialist goal of workers controlling the means of production. Nationalization on the other hand is from a socialist point of view just a "back-up option" if you think the real deal is unrealistic.

And libertarian is hardly a relevant term in this context.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Skane South, in particular, as well as Stockholm but a bit less, seem quite swingy. Is this just because they're the most populous areas, or is there something else ?

In the case of Skåne South I'd argue that the huge swings probably have more to do with a huge and rapid political realignment in recent years due to the gentrification of Malmö's suburbs and exurbs. Places like Svedala, Kävlinge, and Trelleborg which up until and including 2002 had been bastions for the left as port- and industrial towns has since the construction of the Öresund's Bridge and the growth of Malmö been reborn in the shape of upper-middle class commuter towns for white-collor workers in Copenhagen and Malmö, which has also changed the voting of these places. (In short it's turning into a minor version of suburban/exurban Stockholm)

Not that there aren't swingy elements in the constituency that could not also be at play. The constituency's largest city is after-all Lund, with Scandinavia's largest University and thus student population. Students in Sweden are a pretty unpredictable bunch, and their left turn in 2002 probably did its fair bit in making the constituency swing so much to the left in '02.

As for Stockholm (the city, not the surrounding middle-class djungle) it is well documented by political pundits as having the most movable voters. So in that case it is certainly true. Probably as you say, in large part due to its urban nature.   

[Tayya]

Man, I can't believe they accidentally projected the results of that one ward in southeastern Stockholm as the national results! Could you believe that, the Greens second? The Moderates at 13.6%? Both the Feminists and the Sweden Democrats getting in? Hah!

...seriously, yikes. I'd give so much money to have been a fly on the wall at the Moderate leadership meeting last night.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Man, I can't believe they accidentally projected the results of that one ward in southeastern Stockholm as the national results! Could you believe that, the Greens second? The Moderates at 13.6%? Both the Feminists and the Sweden Democrats getting in? Hah!

...seriously, yikes. I'd give so much money to have been a fly on the wall at the Moderate leadership meeting last night.

"If there's one thing this election makes clear, it's that people should stop questioning whether KD and C will survive the 4% line in September, and start asking whether the Moderates will or not. Maybe it'll be us who gives them tactical votes."
- Quote from the Malmö Centre Election Watch yesterday. (mostly a joke) 

Man this was a crazy election. If someone had predicted this result two weeks ago I would have thought that person belonged in an asylum. Considering the circumstances I'm not that dissatisfied with the results.

The most annoying thing is having to read my bobo friends rant about SD's result on facebook for the next month.

[Lurker]

Yet more bad news for the government. SCB's big May poll is out, and it shows the following:

Socialdemocraterna - 35,3%
MP - 8,0%
Vänsterpartiet - 8,0%
--------
Moderaterna - 22,7%
KD -  
Folkpartiet - 5,3%
Centerpartiet - 4,7%
----------
Sverigedemokraterna - 8,1%
Others  - 3,9%


Red-Greens: 51,5%
Government parties: 36,8%



Surprisingly, the Feminist Party doesn't show up here, though I'll bet they improve their results in polls made after the European elections.

[Gustaf]

The SCB thingy gets way too much hype. It's severely overrated. That said, it only confirms what we already knew so obviously still troubling for the government.

At least F! is now likely to siphon off a couple of percentage points from the Red-Green bloc.

[Gustaf]

This is oddly compelling.

http://vimeo.com/96519529

[Lurker]

The SCB thingy gets way too much hype. It's severely overrated. That said, it only confirms what we already knew so obviously still troubling for the government.

At least F! is now likely to siphon off a couple of percentage points from the Red-Green bloc.

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Btw, what are the reasons for F!'s recent surge (or why did it happen now, and not earlier)?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Schyman is the least problem with F!. It should be remembered that she, back in her days as Left Party leader, cooperated for 9 years with Göran Persson, and they hated eachother. I mean really hated, you should hear some of the things they've said about eachother.

It's the other more dubious personalities in F! that would make life hard for our good friend Stefan. Let us not forget Tiina Rosenberg who lovingly exclaimed that all women who sleep with men are traitors of their gender.

[Gustaf]

The SCB thingy gets way too much hype. It's severely overrated. That said, it only confirms what we already knew so obviously still troubling for the government.

At least F! is now likely to siphon off a couple of percentage points from the Red-Green bloc.

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Btw, what are the reasons for F!'s recent surge (or why did it happen now, and not earlier)?

I'd be really surprised if F! clears 4%.

[Lurker]

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Schyman is the least problem with F!. It should be remembered that she, back in her days as Left Party leader, cooperated for 9 years with Göran Persson, and they hated eachother. I mean really hated, you should hear some of the things they've said about eachother.

It's the other more dubious personalities in F! that would make life hard for our good friend Stefan. Let us not forget Tiina Rosenberg who lovingly exclaimed that all women who sleep with men are traitors of their gender.

Interesting. Is this known to the much of the public/their voters?

[Gustaf]

SDU put up a video which is creepy as fck. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VR-lAGj_dlQ&app=desktop

It's based on an even worse French version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4e7n7g1xAM

I find this genuinely scary.

[Tayya]

What the Wikipedia article doesn't tell you is that Mrs. Rosenberg left the party already in 2005 after the media (rightfully or not? No idea, I was 11.) hunted her down for those controversial comments (that may have been misreported, according to the Swedish Wikipedia article on her).

Originally, the party was supposed to be a broad feminist tent, but it collapsed quickly and Schyman was the only one left. Since then they've rebuilt into a cosmopolitan-and-postmodern-left big tent comprised of many young activists. Their rise deserves an essay, but it's partly because of the times, partly because of the Young Greens and Left failing to capture many politically engaged young and educated people in the cities and partly because of their own work rebuilding, organizing (especially on the Internet) and recruiting.

Re: The liberal feminist MEP, it was Maria Carlshamre (elected for the Liberals) who was convicted for a minor financial crime, causing the Liberals to cut ties with her. She then defected to FI, who IIRC didn't exactly embrace her but let her be until her term was up in 2009. EDIT: I misrembered, she was their no. 2 for the Riksdag in 2006, but she's not been a profile in the party since.

[Gustaf]

Tiina Rosenberg's opinions are main line Swedish opinions even for right side of political spectrum (look opinions that Gustaf repeats all the time). In  original FI there were also Liberals (they even had own MEP).  Idea that Sweden has an feminist party is like Vatican had party promoting Catholic faith.

Lol what. Please don't ascribe feminist opinions to me when you clearly have no clue what you're talking about. The radical version of feminism that she was a proponent of is nowhere near the mainstream in Sweden and certainly not anything I support. I suggest you read up on the concept if you don't want to look stupid when discussing feminism.

Tayya made some good points. Rightwing hacks are flouting the Rosenberg stuff now but it's not very relevant to F! today. There is plenty else to dislike about them as far as I'm concerned.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, probably Rosenberg is just seen in Finland as a typical Swede concerning feminism (although she is actually Finn).  Same time it was told that Göran Person considered himself feminist, that was interpreted as support to radical feminist world view ( an appeaser of radical feminism). 

Gustaf, I have never seen you to distance yourself from feminist demagogy.

Wow, that's some incoherent nonsense. Are you high?