SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

Chilling poll numbers from Demoskop today.

M - 18,5%
C - 5,3%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 4,8%

S - 29,1%
V - 8,1%
MP - 13,0%

SD - 10,0%
FI - 4,4%  

The trends from the EP election seems to show up here. The Moderates are doing terribly, C and KD sllightly gaining to above 4%. Sweden Democrats, the Greens, and Feminists are doing strong. The Social Democrats surprisingly weak.

S+MP+FI government anyone?  

This must be the biggest lead for the left during this parliament?

"Left bloc" - 54,6% (including the feminist party)

"Right bloc" - 34,3%

Sweden Democrats - 10%

No, the Alliance hit 34.2% in a May poll.

A thought struck me today: I've always been predicting that the gap between the blocs will narrow, which has also been the common wisdom. But what if that doesn't happen?

Usually, I'd laugh away these numbers - this pollster has seen more large swings from month to month than others - but never this big, and they do correlate very well with the EP results suggesting that something might be up. This is the first poll we've seen that's conducted after the EP elections. We should be seeing some web panel polls in the upcoming week (yes, I'm starting to get a hang of polling schedules, which is kind of sick) and then the most trustworthy ones by the end of the month. Hang in there and let's see what happens.

[Lurker]

I don't think you can really call the Swedish Greens 'ultra left'.

At least the Swedish Greens are clearly in the centre-left bloc. While the supposedly "ultra left" (!) Norwegian Greens are open to the idea of supporting a bourgeoisie government.

[Tayya]

I don't think you can really call the Swedish Greens 'ultra left'.

At least the Swedish Greens are clearly in the centre-left bloc. While the supposedly "ultra left" (!) Norwegian Greens are open to the idea of supporting a bourgeoisie government.

12 years ago, the Swedish Greens negotiated with the center-right to join the government. Right now, though, they've bound themselves surprisingly hard to the Social Democrats.

[Lurker]

I don't think you can really call the Swedish Greens 'ultra left'.

At least the Swedish Greens are clearly in the centre-left bloc. While the supposedly "ultra left" (!) Norwegian Greens are open to the idea of supporting a bourgeoisie government.

12 years ago, the Swedish Greens negotiated with the center-right to join the government. Right now, though, they've bound themselves surprisingly hard to the Social Democrats.

Yeah, though that was more of a (very) short term opportunistic thing - after the 2002 election - wasn't it. Have they seriously considered joining a centre-right coalition after that?

[eric82oslo]

Let's not fool ourselves. All green parties in the entire world are by nature left-leaning. There's pretty much nothing less libertarian in terms of economics than an ultra-green party.

[Phony Moderate]

Not the Mexican one...

[eric82oslo]

Fair enough.

I've heard that the Colombian Green Party is the second most left-wing one after the FARC-supported one. At least that's what my friend said who's ultra left and supporting the FARC party.

[Gustaf]

The Swedish Greens are really not ultra-left and have worked with the right on a number of issues as well as governing with them in many places at the local level. That's why one of Sweden's more prominent libertarians backed them last election.

[politicus]

The Swedish Greens are really not ultra-left and have worked with the right on a number of issues as well as governing with them in many places at the local level. That's why one of Sweden's more prominent libertarians backed them last election.

Sweden has some weak ass Libertarians.

[Tayya]

As I had predicted, we have two new web panel polls out today.

Metro/YouGov
68% conducted before the EP elections

M: 24.8% (+2.6%)
C: 4.8% (+0.9%)
FP: 5.1% (-1.1%)
KD: 5.0% (+0.9%)

S: 31.2% (-2.1%)
V: 8.5% (-0.2%)
MP: 8.3% (+1.4%)

SD: 8.2% (-2.4%)
FI: 3.6% (+1%)
Others: 0.6% (-1%)

M+C+FP+KD: 39.7% (+3.3%)
S+V+MP: 48.0% (-0.9%)

Aftonbladet/United Minds
50% conducted before the EP elections

M: 19.7% (-1.9%)
C: 3.5% (+0.2%)
FP: 5.8% (-0.3%)
KD: 4.9% (+1.7%)

S: 30.8% (-3.8%)
V: 9.5% (+0.6%)
MP: 11.2% (+2.7%)

SD: 11.3% (+0.6%)
FI: 2.1% (no change)
Others: 1.1% (+0.2%)

M+C+FP+KD: 33.9% (+0.3%)
S+V+MP: 51.6% (-0.4%)

Both agree on S dropping, but United Minds seems to confirm more trends from the Demoskop poll while YouGov goes its own way. Still, that M below 20% wasn't unique will probably cause headaches for the party, as will the Social Democrats remaining at 2010 levels.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sifo's June Poll is out. Which is the first good poll done mostly after the EP election. (I do not personally view either YouGov or United Minds as good)

S: 29,4% (-1,5%)
V: 6,4% (-0,9%)
MP: 13,0% (+2,7)

M: 21,1% (-2,0%)
C: 5,5% (+0,5%)
FP: 6,8% (-0,2%)
KD: 3,5% (+/-)

SD: 9,0 (+0,2%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,5%)


I think looking at this poll, and the polls Tayya posted, and the EP election results we can make a few conclusions:

1)The dynamic between the parties on the left is changing.
2) The Moderates are in big BIG trouble.
3) The Centre Party has (at least for now) stopped its bleeding, and is slowly recovering.
4) The Sweden Democrats will do a very good election and I will have to suffer my bobo friends anti-racist rants in social media for months.

   

 

[Tayya]

Sifo's June Poll is out. Which is the first good poll done mostly after the EP election. (I do not personally view either YouGov or United Minds as good)

S: 29,4% (-1,5%)
V: 6,4% (-0,9%)
MP: 13,0% (+2,7)

M: 21,1% (-2,0%)
C: 5,5% (+0,5%)
FP: 6,8% (-0,2%)
KD: 3,5% (+/-)

SD: 9,0 (+0,2%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,5%)


I think looking at this poll, and the polls Tayya posted, and the EP election results we can make a few conclusions:

1)The dynamic between the parties on the left is changing.
2) The Moderates are in big BIG trouble.
3) The Centre Party has (at least for now) stopped its bleeding, and is slowly recovering.
4) The Sweden Democrats will do a very good election and I will have to suffer my bobo friends anti-racist rants in social media for months.
 

5) FI looks set to gain over 2.5% which means that they will have loads and loads of cash for 2018.
6) Stefan Löfven might be regretting taking the party leader gig, soon if not now.

Does Demoskop count as an OK poll? The trends show up here as well, but to a lesser extent - Demoskop is swingier and was conducted closer to the EP elections, so they might only be temporary.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I do usually view Demoskop as a good pollster, they were quite close in their last poll in 2010. Sometimes they seem to get some strange out-liner results though.

Sifo has historically been the most reliable, although they were probably the pollster that underestimated SD the most in 2010.

[Tayya]

Indeed. I was surprised that most pollsters didn't underestimate SD as much as I thought they did - the web polls overestimated them, though - which will hopefully lessen the bobo freakout a bit, since they won't be as surprised (we'll see how much the exit polls differ with the bigger electorate).

What I'm definitely not looking forward to is Fi getting 4.5% in the exit poll and trickling down below 4% in the end.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New polls! Novus and Ipsos this time:

Novus:

S: 32,1% (-0,3%)
V: 6,7% (-1,6%)
MP: 11,3% (+1,2)

M: 21,2% (-3,1%)
C: 5,6% (+1,7%)
FP: 6,8% (+0,8%)
KD: 4,4% (+0,2%)

SD: 8,3 (+0,6%)
FI: 2,9% (+0,8%)

Ipsos:

S: 31,1% (-0,2%)
V: 7,4% (-1,3%)
MP: 11,3% (+1,1)

M: 20,5% (-2,1%)
C: 5,6% (+1,3%)
FP: 6,3% (+0,5%)
KD: 3,3% (-1,2%)

SD: 9,6 (+1,8%)
FI: 3,7% (-0,2%)


Trends from the last polls holding true in this one as well. V is clearly feeling FI's succes the hardest. (Unsurprisingly)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SVT has recently published their Voter Affiliation Compass, which in my personal oppinion tends to be the best compass for Swedish electins. (Though I liked the 2010 version better than this one)

It can be found here!

For those who unconveniently don't speak Swedish I will post an English translation of all the questions in the next post.

Options are:

Very good proposal (Dark green)
Mostly good proposal (Light green)
Mostly bad proposal (Orange)
Very bad proposal (Red)
No oppinion

You can also tick a little box above the options if an issue is especially important to you.

Have fun.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The questions in English:

Ideology
1. It is important that Sweden only has a small income gap.
2. It is important that Sweden has more private enterprise and market economy.
3. It is important that more power is reassigned from men to women in Sweden.
4. It is important that criminals get harder punishments that they do in Sweden today.
5. It is important that Sweden is a multicultural nation.
6. It is important that Christian values play a greater part in politics in Sweden.
7. It is important that higher education should give a better salary in Sweden compared to today.
8. It is important that LGBT-rights are increased in society.
9. Fighting Climate change should be the number one priority of politics.

Jobs and employment
1. There should be compulsory affirmative action to get more women in business boards.
2. The retirement age should be raised.
3. The number of work hours per week should be decreased.
4. Companies should get a greater say in which personnel they let off due to staff surplus.  
5. The level on payments from unemployment insurance should be increased.
6. Youth should get a lower salary at their first job than the standard salary.  

Education
1. Students should get their first report card in 4th grade.
2. The national government should take over the main responsibility for schools from local government.
3. All secondary education should qualify you for University studies.
4. The number of private schools should be limited.
5. There should be a grade on the report cards for good behaviour.

Healthcare
1. The national government should take over the main responsibility for healthcare from regional government.
2. The care-taker subsidy for parents of young children should be eliminated.
3.  Municipal home assistance should cost the same no matter where you live.
4. Capital gains from profits in the tax-financed health sector should not be allowed.
5. Undocumented immigrants should have a right to free treatment.

Economy and Taxes
1. The wealth tax should be re-established.    
2. Tax-deductions for home services should continue to be allowed.
3. No more state owned business should be privatised.
4. Parental leave should be mandatorily split equally between the parents.
5. Economic support to rural areas should be increased.

Environment    
1. The current nuclear reactors should be allowed to be replaced with newer ones.
2. Taxes on gasoline should be increased.
3. Subsidies for wind power should be eliminated.
4. More wolf hunting should be allowed in Sweden.

Immigration and Integration
1. You should be able to seek asylum in Sweden from Swedish embassies.
2. Less people should be allowed to immigrate to Sweden.
3. All municipalities should have an obligation to take in and care for asylum seekers.
4. The police should actively seek up and deport illegal immigrants.

Other Issues
1. Sweden should leave the European Union.
2. Sweden should increase its Defence budget.  
3. Sweden should join NATO.
4. Entrance to state owned museums should be free.
5. It should be legal to download copy-righted material for personal use.
6. The police should be able to access private citizens’ web and phone history.
7. Wine farmers should be allowed to sell their wine on their farms.  

[Cassius]

SD: 72%
M: 70%
KD: 60%
C: 59%
FP: 45%
PP: 35%
S: 27%
MP: 21%
V: 12%
FI: 9%

[Tayya]

V: 72%
S: 71%
Fi: 71%
MP: 63%
FP: 62%
PP: 56%
SD: 47%
KD: 47%
C: 39%
M: 38%

Generic leftist with some conservative tendencies.

[Njall]

Certainly wouldn't have expected such a high result for PP, but:

PP: 69%
S: 60%
MP: 58%
KD: 57%
FI: 55%
M: 55%
V: 53%
C: 52%
FP: 51%
SD: 45%

[TertiumQuid]

    M 72%
    Moderaterna
    C 64%
    Centerpartiet
    KD 63%
    Kristdemokraterna
    SD 54%
    Sverigedemokraterna
    FP 49%
    Folkpartiet
    PP 38%
    Piratpartiet
    S 29%
    Socialdemokraterna
    MP 25%
    Miljöpartiet
    FI 15%
    Feministiskt initiativ
    V 9%
    Vänsterpartiet

I hear Sweden has been moving in a positive direction since the 1990s but lol! is all I can say. Never have I answered so many obvious questions in a row. And this is apparently a post-1930 high watermark for the Right's influence on policy.

[eric82oslo]

Mine:

FI - 82% - Feministiskt initiativ
MP - 73% - Miljöpartiet
V - 70% - Vänsterpartiet
PP - 68% - Piratpartiet
FP - 68% - Folkpartiet
S - 63% - Socialdemokraterna
C - 55% - Centerpartiet
M - 52% - Moderaterna
KD - 48% - Kristdemokraterna
SD - 20% - Sverigedemokraterna


Not many surprises there for me. The biggest surprise was that I agree with SD as much as 20% of the time! And maybe that I only agree with FI 82% of the time.

[Foucaulf]

This is, uh, interesting:

Piratpartiet: 64%
Folkpartiet: 62%
Socialdemokraterna: 59%
Feministiskt initiativ + Miljöpartiet: 58%
Vänsterpartiet: 55%
Kristdemokraterna: 52%
Moderaterna: 50%
Centerpartiet: 49%
Sverigedemokraterna: 36%

[politicus]

Sverigedemokraterna 63%

Moderaterna 57%

Centerpartiet 53%

Folkpartiet 50%

Kristdemokraterna 47%

Miljöpartiet 44%

Socialdemokraterna 42%

Vänsterpartiet 41%

Feministiskt initiativ 38%

Piratpartiet 37%

As usual my heterogeneous mix of left and right positions makes for a weird ranking in polls like this.

Still, I am surprised that after voting for every environmentalist position and most of the feminist ones + gay rights and supporting greater income equality + no profit in the welfare industry I still get so right wing a score.

I suppose my support for decentralisation and being against the state taking away responsibility from municipalities and regions could influence this?

Also surprised about the ranking of the centre-right parties with KD as the party I agree the least with and SD on top. Immigration, increase of defense spending + NATO membership and stricter penalties seem to count heavily while my support of Christian values and family friendly policies didn't matter much (apart from maybe reinforcing the SD vote?). Supporting EU exit would add to the SD support, are all the others pro-EU?

My actual vote if I were to vote in Sweden would likely be Kristdemokraterna (out of principle), but with Mp as second choice.
The old school Centre Party with focus on decentralisation, green issues and a centrist economic policy would have been attractive to me, but not the current incarnation.

EDIT: I suppose Moderaterna being the most centrist of the centre-right parties on economics might explain the ranking, with SD being even more centrist than M on economics.

EDIT2:

Would it be correct that my ranking of the bourgeoisie parties SD - M - C - FP - KD  is basically a left to right on the socioeconomic scale?

My ranking of the leftist parties MP - SDA - VP - FI is a right to left, provided that FI is even more left wing than VP on economics.

If so, I land on the right wing side of the left-right divide and then basically dislike the most socioeconomically extreme parties on either side the most.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Moderates 63%
Center Party 61%
Christian Democrats 52%
Pirates 51%
Liberal Peoples 49%
Social Democrats 43%
Sweden Democrats 41%
Greens 40%
Feminist Initative 32%
Left Party 28%