SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Seems fairly accurate, from the relative little I know about Swedish politics:

M - 68%
C - 65%
SD - 62%
KD - 58%
FP - 49%
PP - 37%
S - 29%
MP - 28%
FI - 14%
V - 13%

[Donerail]

PP - 75%
MP - 63%
V - 59%
C - 58%
FI - 58%
KD - 56%
S - 56%
M - 48%
FP - 48%
SD - 40%

[MaxQue]

Those results are wierd nd have a wierdly low spread (23).

PP - 64%
FI - 58%
S - 56%
V - 55%
MP - 53%
M - 49%
C - 49%
KD - 48%
FP - 44%
SD - 41%

[politicus]

Retook the test while skipping the immigration questions. Still the same in top 2, so most of it cant be explained by immigration.
For some reason I now disagree much more with Folkpartiet, which is strange because I thought it was a pro-immigration party.


Moderaterna 57%

Sverigedemokraterna 57%

Centerpartiet 52%

Miljöpartiet 48%

Kristdemokraterna 47%

Piratpartiet 45%

Socialdemokraterna 45%

Folkpartiet 44%

Vänsterpartiet 43%

Feministisk Initiativ 41%

[Barnes]

Not that this would be news to any of our Swedish posters, but I just discovered the great tradition of Almedalen!

http://m.aljazeera.com/story/20147182122143113

Yet another reason to love Sweden!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sounds about right:

85% Feministiskt initiativ
79% Vänsterpartiet
71% Miljöpartiet
71% Socialdemokraterna
69% Piratpartiet
57% Folkpartiet
51% Kristdemokraterna
44% Centerpartiet
36% Moderaterna
33% Sverigedemokraterna

[Barnes]

FI: 85%
MP: 78%
V: 76%
PP: 74%
S: 70%
FP: 55%
KD: 51%
C: 49%
M: 41%
SD: 29%

[Tayya]

Not that this would be news to any of our Swedish posters, but I just discovered the great tradition of Almedalen!

http://m.aljazeera.com/story/20147182122143113

Yet another reason to love Sweden!

Unfortunately, a lot of the politicians' precious time is awarded to/taken by lobbyists.

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

[The Lord Marbury]

Vänsterpartiet 87%
Feministiskt Initiativ 84%
Socialdemokraterna 83%
Miljöpartiet de Gröna 81%
Piratpartiet 72%
Folkpartiet Liberalerna 50%
Centerpartiet 45%
Kristdemokraterna 39%
Moderaterna 36%
Sverigedemokraterna 36%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

Maybe next summer we should arrange a Swedish Atlas meet-up during Almedalen.

[Barnes]

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

Maybe next summer we should arrange a Swedish Atlas meet-up during Almedalen.

Only if you guys provide a commentary thread on here!

[Tayya]

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

Maybe next summer we should arrange a Swedish Atlas meet-up during Almedalen.

I'm all ears, though apparantly we'd have to book a room around last year. I haven't looked into it much, though.

[Tayya]

POLL ALERT: Aftonbladet/United Minds (web-based) showing a gleam of hope for the incumbents.

S: 28.0% (-2.8%)
V: 7.5% (-2.0%)
MP: 11.9% (+0.7%)

M: 22.8% (+3.1%)
C: 4.8% (+1.3%)
FP: 5.0% (-0.8%)
KD: 4.4% (-0.5%)

SD: 10.5% (-0.8%)
Fi: 4.0% (+1.9%)

Others: 1.2% (+0.1%)

M+C+FP+KD: 37.0 (+3.1%)
S+V+MP: 47.4% (-4.2%)
S+V+MP+Fi: 51.4% (-2.3%)

While the changes are rather large, the last poll was something of an outlier as well. We can compare these results to a poll index conducted for public radio two days ago, before this poll:


S: 30.8% (-2.8%)
V: 6.9% (+0.6%)
MP: 12.0% (-0.1%)

M: 21.1% (+1.7%)
C: 5.5% (-0.7%)
FP: 6.6% (-1.6%)
KD: 3.7% (+0.7%)

SD: 9.0% (+1.5%)
Fi: 3.3% (+0.7%)

Others: 1.1% (+0.1%)

M+C+FP+KD: 34.9 (+2.1%)
S+V+MP: 49.7% (-2.3%)
S+V+MP+Fi: 53.0% (-1.6%)

There's still a change, but the new numbers are closer to the average than the very tabloidic tabloid Aftonladet presents them as. We'll see if it's a real change, if it's the holidays messing up polling, if it's the EP elections fading from voters' memories or if it's just an outlier.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

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This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

[The Lord Marbury]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

[The Lord Marbury]

The polls seem to be a bit all over the place right now, Alliance gaining in some, Red-Greens staying strong in others. Could be that it's just holidays messing with things.

Expressen/Demoskop

Left: 7,2% (-0,9)
Social Democrats: 31,5% (+2,4)
Greens: 13,6 (+0,6)

Centre: 4,5% (-0,8)
Liberal: 6,5% (+0,8)
Moderate: 19,4% (+0,9)
Christian Democrats: 4,2 (-0,6)

Sweden Democrats: 9,2% (-0,8)
Feminist Initiative: 2,8% (-1,8)

Alliance: 34,5% (+0,2)
S+V+MP: 52,3% (+2,0)
S+MP: 45,1% (+3,0)

[Tayya]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

Indeed. The Left Party will surely be heading for double digits with a red-green (rather than red-red-green) government*, despite the rise of a Fi that might have better chances at catching disgruntled MP voters than V.

Of note is that the Demoskop poll has an error committed by the newspaper - the Feminist Initiative's score should be a decrease, as they got over 4% in the last Demoskop poll.

*We need snazzier names for government alternatives, German style. I'm trademarking "Gambia coalition" for S-MP-FP.

[The Lord Marbury]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

Indeed. The Left Party will surely be heading for double digits with a red-green (rather than red-red-green) government*, despite the rise of a Fi that might have better chances at catching disgruntled MP voters than V.

Of note is that the Demoskop poll has an error committed by the newspaper - the Feminist Initiative's score should be a decrease, as they got over 4% in the last Demoskop poll.

*We need snazzier names for government alternatives, German style. I'm trademarking "Gambia coalition" for S-MP-FP.

Fix'd. With FI dropping in this poll perhaps their post-EU election glow is starting to fade. We'll see in time I suppose. When MP enters government it will also be interesting to just how much of their support is soft and how many are voting for them because they look like the cool and modern opposition alternative. FP under a Birgitta Ohlsson leadership could also have a chance at taking centrist-leaning MP voters.

Nah, I'd prefer "Gray coalition" for that. Or perhaps that term should be saved for the mythical S+M coalition.

[Tayya]

Eh, S+M would be Grand, of course.

Of course, I'm still holding out for a S+Junilistan+SD+MP+M+Pirates Pride coalition.

[The Lord Marbury]

I would want that just for the sight of Junilistan going completely mental over suddenly being somewhat relevant.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

Yes, Schyman's result in '98 was the reason Persson survived that election, so I completely agree that it would be better for both S and V. But the question is if V sees it that way.

Just being a support party is always strategically better, as it gives you most of the power, but with little of the responsibility and the freedom to to vote against unpopular decisions. Still for some reason smaller parties still way too often demand to be included. Considering the V outrage in '10 and '06 when S+MP with-out V was discussed it's likely we'll see the same this time, even though they shouldn't want ministerial portfolios.

When MP enters government it will also be interesting to just how much of their support is soft and how many are voting for them because they look like the cool and modern opposition alternative. FP under a Birgitta Ohlsson leadership could also have a chance at taking centrist-leaning MP voters.

I'd imagine that their support is actually incredibly soft, and much of it might start to melt away as soon as they pass an unpopular policy in government and they all of sudden can't be a party that everyone can project their dream policies onto, and the media cushioning they've had for the last 12 years stops. They're in a dangerous position as they can bleed heavily to both the right and left. 
 

*We need snazzier names for government alternatives.

S+V+MP= (S)(v)a(mp)= Mushroom coalition


A S+M coalition should just be known as The League of Doom.



 



 

[CharlieLima]

It's interesting to speculate what will happen with the Moderates after the election. Fredrik Reinfeldts days an leader seemes to have come to an end, and after the catastrophic election to the EU-parliament, I can't see him as Chairman of the party after the national elections if they lose.

Let's also pretend that the Christian Democrats ends up below four percent and the new left-wing government start flirting with the Center Party and the Peoples Party. That would leave the Moderates without anyone to cooperate with. What we have to remember is that the current leadership of the party is the liberal wing. However, the Moderates holds conservative forces as well and when the liberal wing is failing, the party may give the conservative and more traditional wing a chance.

My conclusion to this is that we in a couple of years will see a more conservative orientated party that may stay nearer the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats when it comes to the immigration issues and the family values.

What do you think? Is this a possible scenario?

[Tayya]

It's interesting to speculate what will happen with the Moderates after the election. Fredrik Reinfeldts days an leader seemes to have come to an end, and after the catastrophic election to the EU-parliament, I can't see him as Chairman of the party after the national elections if they lose.

Let's also pretend that the Christian Democrats ends up below four percent and the new left-wing government start flirting with the Center Party and the Peoples Party. That would leave the Moderates without anyone to cooperate with. What we have to remember is that the current leadership of the party is the liberal wing. However, the Moderates holds conservative forces as well and when the liberal wing is failing, the party may give the conservative and more traditional wing a chance.

My conclusion to this is that we in a couple of years will see a more conservative orientated party that may stay nearer the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats when it comes to the immigration issues and the family values.

What do you think? Is this a possible scenario?

No, I don't really think so. Which of Reinfeldt's possible successors would push that line?

Anders Borg has been everywhere in the party's ideological spectrum except socially conservative. Ulf Kristersson was the liberal/neoliberal candidate against conservative (yes, really) Reinfeldt in the Youth League, and Anna Kinberg Batra was IIRC a Kristersson protégé. Tomas Tobé is gay and would stay away from KD's social policies. Hillevi Engström pushes for more equal parental leave. Gunilla Carlsson isn't someone I can see as a contender since she retired from the cabinet. Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd is to me somewhat of a blank slate, but I can't see her as an actual conservative. Carl Bildt? Seriously? His wife is too old, as is Lena Adelsohn Liljeroth, as is Gunnar Hökmark, who is also tainted by the EP elections. The current Youth League generation are too young. Maria Abrahamsson would put her foot in her mouth too often. Peter Norman is too non-partisan. Beatrice Ask? LOL.

The only alternatives from some kind of conservative wing would be an outsider, perhaps former Youth League chairman and Reinfeldt chief of staff Johan Forssell - who would be a very long shot - or Tobias Billström. But the Moderates can't be that stupid, can they?

For the record, Reinfeldt himself is conservative. He's just not *that* kind of conservative.

[CharlieLima]

No, I don't really think so. Which of Reinfeldt's possible successors would push that line?

Anders Borg has been everywhere in the party's ideological spectrum except socially conservative. Ulf Kristersson was the liberal/neoliberal candidate against conservative (yes, really) Reinfeldt in the Youth League, and Anna Kinberg Batra was IIRC a Kristersson protégé. Tomas Tobé is gay and would stay away from KD's social policies. Hillevi Engström pushes for more equal parental leave. Gunilla Carlsson isn't someone I can see as a contender since she retired from the cabinet. Catharina Elmsäter-Svärd is to me somewhat of a blank slate, but I can't see her as an actual conservative. Carl Bildt? Seriously? His wife is too old, as is Lena Adelsohn Liljeroth, as is Gunnar Hökmark, who is also tainted by the EP elections. The current Youth League generation are too young. Maria Abrahamsson would put her foot in her mouth too often. Peter Norman is too non-partisan. Beatrice Ask? LOL.

The only alternatives from some kind of conservative wing would be an outsider, perhaps former Youth League chairman and Reinfeldt chief of staff Johan Forssell - who would be a very long shot - or Tobias Billström. But the Moderates can't be that stupid, can they?

For the record, Reinfeldt himself is conservative. He's just not *that* kind of conservative.

I see your point, no one in the current party leadership would push that line. However, Sweden aren't immune against the European right wing winds and I believe the grass roots are willing to try a different, more traditional type of leadership.

Let me also do a clarification regarding the immigration policiy; Of course the Moderates immigration policy won't be as the Sweden Democrats from one day to another. This transition will take place over time. I will probably start with a small, pretty much undetectable reduction of the immigration and will over time slowly expand to in 6-7-8 years be quite similar to the Sweden Democrats policy. That's my thought.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What do you think? Is this a possible scenario?

No. They might go back to some of their more traditional stances on defense and taxes, but besides that I have a hard time seeing the Conservative faction of the party take it more right. I mean, why would they even consider adopting the social policies of a party that in your scenario doesn't even break 4%? As for edging closer to SD on immigration, if that ever happens it'll more likely be a situation like the one in Denmark were almost all the parties make that transition.

As Tayya says, there really isn't anyone from the Conservative-wing who can take the leadership rains. Their most prominent, realistic shot would probably be Christofer Fjellner, and he's just Conservative on economics.