SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Gustaf]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

[Tayya]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

Our social democrats attemped same, but people recognize fake and vote for real stuff.
If you watch EP results, SD did well in eternal red (Middle Sweden), thus they are worrying.

That does indeed tend to happen, but it remains to see if Sweden will follow the European trend. Unlike for example Denmark, the party system as a whole is definitely not gravitating towards stricter immigration policy.

@Swedish Cheese: Dang, I thought I had name-dropped all possible Moderate candidates. I forgot at least one. (And a big bunch of back-benchers, of course!)

[The Lord Marbury]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

Our social democrats attemped same, but people recognize fake and vote for real stuff.
If you watch EP results, SD did well in eternal red (Middle Sweden), thus they are worrying.

That does indeed tend to happen, but it remains to see if Sweden will follow the European trend. Unlike for example Denmark, the party system as a whole is definitely not gravitating towards stricter immigration policy.

@Swedish Cheese: Dang, I thought I had name-dropped all possible Moderate candidates. I forgot at least one. (And a big bunch of back-benchers, of course!)

Yep, something S in particular experienced this spring when they were forced to move away more from their traditionally somewhat strict policy on worker immigration.

[CharlieLima]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

It's inevitable when workers right is the core issue on the Social Democrats party agenda and have been so for the last 80 years. The Alliance Government can get away with it much easier.

[Tender Branson]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Also: Anything interesting being debated right now in the campaign ?

[Tayya]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Also: Anything interesting being debated right now in the campaign ?

The Almedalen Week (when all politicians, lobbyists and activists gather on Gotland to mingle) has just ended. The most notable result of that was the government presenting a relatively massive infrastructure project, including high-speed rail on the Stockholm-Gothenburg and Stockholm-Malmö lines, for 400 billion SEK (~60 billion dollars), financed through raised taxes on commercial buildings as well as "we'll find something along the way".

It's not a horrible project, but it's a flip-flop on high-speed trains (called "science fiction" by the Minister of Finance) and somewhat undermines one of the government's talking points on financing all their proposals.

The impact of these hasn't really been visible in polling yet, but it might have been the government's very final chance. If the poll numbers still show a >10% gap in August, it's game over, absent a game changer during the election campaign.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Not unless Stefan Löfvén is all of a sudden revealed to be Frank Underwood.

For the right it's really a battle of minimizing loses and keep as much ground as possible to be able to fight the fight next time, possibly be able to deny the centre-left a majority and be able to keep power in at least one or two regions, and more than a handful of super safe local councils.

I still think the government crawling up to 40-42% with Mushrooms around 46-48% is the most likely, but I'm not as certain as I used to be, since the Alliance parties campaigns have been wholeheartedly uninspiring so far. The only ones who're actually doing decently are us, Centre party, surprisingly to all. I'm not even sure the Moderates have a campaign, and considering their EP campaign, I'm not actually sure that's a bad thing...

In the end I think a lot will come down to FI, and if they manage to come in, and if the other three lefties manage to stay out of saying anything stupid.   

[Tayya]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Not unless Stefan Löfvén is all of a sudden revealed to be Frank Underwood.

For the right it's really a battle of minimizing loses and keep as much ground as possible to be able to fight the fight next time, possibly be able to deny the centre-left a majority and be able to keep power in at least one or two regions, and more than a handful of super safe local councils.

I still think the government crawling up to 40-42% with Mushrooms around 46-48% is the most likely, but I'm not as certain as I used to be, since the Alliance parties campaigns have been wholeheartedly uninspiring so far. The only ones who're actually doing decently are us, Centre party, surprisingly to all. I'm not even sure the Moderates have a campaign, and considering their EP campaign, I'm not actually sure that's a bad thing...

In the end I think a lot will come down to FI, and if they manage to come in, and if the other three lefties manage to stay out of saying anything stupid.   

Well, how can you go wrong with five-time Eurovision contestant (as a song writer) Fredrik Kempe on board?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_UVM1OEwmE

I assume that the government collects over 40% in the end - anything else would be an utter embarrassment.

[Tayya]

POLL ALERT! POLL ALERT!

Welcome back from the literal summer drought, everyone! Today, TV4 and Novus has released their July poll (conducted between July 7 and August 3):

Moderates: 22.4% (+1.2%)
Liberals: 6.1% (-0.7%)
Centre: 5.8% (+0.2%)
Christian Democrats: 4.2% (-0.2%)

Government: 38.5% (+0.5%)

Social Democrats: 31.8% (-0.3%)
Left: 7.3% (+0.6%)
Greens: 9.9% (-1.4%)

Red-Green Opposition: 49.0% (-1.1%)

Sweden Democrats: 8.8% (+0.5%)
Feminist Initiative: 2.6% (-0.3%)
Others: 1.1% (+0.4%)

All changes are within the margin of error - the only thing of note is that the Moderates appear to have regained some Green voters lost after the EP elections, which makes sense after a calm and hot summer month.

News here is currently dominated by a large forest fire raging in Västmanland County. The Greens have gotten flak for announcing support for more resources to domestic rescue operations while the fire is still raging, though headlines about inadequate crisis managemant capabilities won't exactly help the government. Sweden's likely next Prime Minister Stefan Löfven also got some flak for travelling to the area when he's powerless to actually do anything, but with PM Reinfeldt staying away I wager he still comes of from the whole ordeal as the winner. and Reinfeldt is going there today. Generally, the right-wing blames the left for playing politics with the fire while trying to be subtle about playing politics with the fire.

A possible X-factor is that the firefighting is said to take up to a month, so theoretically the fire could still be raging on Election Day.

[Tender Branson]

A big forest fire in ... Sweden ?

So, the next big campaign issue will probably be climate change ...

PS: It's never good for a PM to stay away from a disaster area 1 month before an election.

[Tayya]

A big forest fire in ... Sweden ?

So, the next big campaign issue will probably be climate change ...

PS: It's never good for a PM to stay away from a disaster area 1 month before an election.

Climate change would be a reasonable subject, especially considering this summer's weather (very hot, but also much rain and thunder with several mini-floodings in Stockholm) but it depends on if the fire stabilizes in time for the subject to come up. The major party politicians will want to discuss the economy, of course. (For the record, this is an outlier that could be perfectly explainable without climate change, but I assume the Greens will want to discuss climate if nothing else)

See the edit: he literally announced a trip while I was writing.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A big forest fire in ... Sweden ?

So, the next big campaign issue will probably be climate change ...

No unlikely, if the forest fire leaves a mark it'll probably be on the issue of Disaster Management in general and the response from the government in special. That's were the political attacks from the opposition so far has come from. Although attacks have been few so far, people find it tacky to play party politics in the middle of a disaster, but they'll obviously start to come once the fires are put out.

It might obviously be an effective attack strategy if it's done right and people see the governments response as bad. (Lex Tsunami 2005) But the government might very well counterattack with some of the opposition party's suggested cuts to the police force and military, as they are quite vital in managing disasters such as this one. Especially the military pulls the lion's work on forest fires.

     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

[The Lord Marbury]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

...look a few posts up

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

...look a few posts up

Haha, I'm an idiot. Totally missed that Tayya had already posted the poll.
Damn it! Why must he be so quick.

[Tayya]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

...look a few posts up

Haha, I'm an idiot. Totally missed that Tayya had already posted the poll.
Damn it! Why must he be so quick.

I blame Twitter.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since I could not provide anything valuable on the new poll front, I'll instead offer this poll of polls graphic on how the parties' standing in polls have changed over the last year:



It's a bad bad time to be a Moderate!

[Hash]

What's happened to M, S and V for them to drop off so suddenly (more or less)?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What's happened to M, S and V for them to drop off so suddenly (more or less)?

I have my theories, but they're just theories, so Tayya and Marbury might disagree with me. (It'll be a long response, but since you asked Hash) 

V enjoyed good numbers last year due to left-wing Greens and Social Democrats (such as my ex-boyfriend to use an example) thought the other two parties too moderate and close to the right, similarly to how it's been looking in many other European countries recently, but on a smaller scale. Now this was especially thanks in large part to the vivid debate on private actors in the health, education, and welfare sectors, and their large profits. After a few scandals, were it among other things turned out that one private daycare center had literally put their kids on a diet of bread and water to save money while the company was making profits, the Left Party, who've taken a strong principled stance to ban profits in the welfare sector and pledged to limit private enterprise in the field, soared.

However in recent months the issue has taken a backseat in the debate to other issues and not been as hotly debated. This coupled with the rise of FI, which is basically the Left Party with extra everything feminism slapped on, led by their skillful and inspiring former leader stealing their votes are probably the reason V has taken somewhat of a slump recently. But as FI seems to have started slipping in support it might mean the party will start to stabilize and even start to increase again.



S has also lost votes to FI, and to the Greens most certainly. Mainly because (I think) the fact that they will not take a stand on anything. S has been trying to be as still as possible in the boat, in order to neither offend their left-flank, nor potential moderate swing-voters. Instead they've simply been attacking the government on generic stuff, and given vague promises such as "Sweden shall have Europe's Lowest Unemployment by 2020." Now this worked very well for quite some time as S reestablished themselves after the Håkan Juholt debacle but as the election is drawing closer people have been starting to notice that they have very few actual proposals on what sort of politics they want to implement when back in government. Now this has not caused their supporters to be displeased with them, but it has been easy to tread over to one of the more inspiring centre-left parties. It's also important to not forget that S is still struggling with their image as grey, old-fashioned, power-hungry party, just this time it's not benefiting the right, but the rest of the left coalition.


M is by far the easiest to explain. The party is completely run out of ideological and political ideas and have completely lost the political initiative. I would go as far as to say that the Moderates aren't even running in the same election as the other seven parties, they have no idea what the issues of the day are, focusing their energy on questions and solutions that are far of the current political radar. Their trump card, the great trust the general public feels for Reinfeldt's, Borg's and Bildt's political competence is also losing its charm. Their devastatingly bad EP-campaign and their result in that election really accelerated their downfall by also giving them the Loser mark, and no swing-voter wants to vote for a loser.


Tl:dr- version:               

V's big winning issue isn't in the spot-light at the moment, and FI's stealing all their marbles.

S is too cautious and dropping to more inspiring and exciting options.

M is disillusioned, tired, and a group of big losers.         

[Tayya]

Swedish Cheese sums it up brilliantly. The numbers should of course be seen in relation to earlier ones - the Left Party is still ~1.5% above its 2010 result.

If the Novus numbers hold up in other polls (the polling frequency usually skyrockets in the second half of August) we are seeing a slight shift towards the status quo/normalcy. If that is what's happening, Novus's long and early (for August) collecting period could indicate that the actual shift is even larger which would definitely endanger the chance of a stable government after the elections.

[Tayya]

New SIFO poll out. You won't get any results from my phone but M is up while MP is down signalling that the post-EP bump is over as the opposite was true in May. Red-Greens don't budge thanks to S improving, Alliance improves despite C and FP losing thanks to a strong showing for M (23,9% - the mighty has fallen...) The margin is SVaMP up 9.8% with a bare majority in mandates. SD holds still at 9, FI down to 2.6% (will they fade before the election??), others down big from an improbable 1.9% to 0.8% contributing to most if the margin decrease.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New SIFO poll out. You won't get any results from my phone but M is up while MP is down signalling that the post-EP bump is over as the opposite was true in May. Red-Greens don't budge thanks to S improving, Alliance improves despite C and FP losing thanks to a strong showing for M (23,9% - the mighty has fallen...) The margin is SVaMP up 9.8% with a bare majority in mandates. SD holds still at 9, FI down to 2.6% (will they fade before the election??), others down big from an improbable 1.9% to 0.8% contributing to most if the margin decrease.

Where's your precious twitter now?


SIFO:

M - 23,9% (+2,7%) 86 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 22 seats
C - 4,6% (-0,9%) 17 seats
KD - 4,3% (+0,8%) 16 seats

S - 30,7% (+1,3%) 111 seats
V - 6,6% (+0,2%) 24 seats
MP - 11,4% (-1,6%) 41 seats

SD - 9,0% (+/-) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,8%) 0 seats
Oth: 0,8%

Alliance - 38,9% (+1,3%) 141 seats
Mushrooms - 48,7% (-0,1%) 176 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority by two seats. 

So these two polls seem to agree that the Moderates are making up for some lost ground, Greens are dropping, and FI we can (hopefully) count FI out. Sounds promising enough. ^^

[Tender Branson]

Well, if the government wants to gain some ground - now would be a good time for it ...

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Do you see the campaign as an interesting one, a balanced one or a dull one ?

And what do you think turnout will be like ?

From what I remember, it was 84-85% in 2010 ...

[Lurker]

I really doubt that the Red-Greens will get a majority next month. The Sweden Democrats will probably hold the "balance of power" like last time, but with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc this time around.

Would Reinfeldt try to remain in power in such a scenario, or would he step down?