SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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  SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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Author Topic: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD  (Read 96629 times)
FredLindq
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« Reply #425 on: August 09, 2014, 11:45:36 AM »

Reinfeldt has one important advantage, he is in power. A majority in the parliament (riksdag) has to vote against him in a vote of cofidence in order for a change off power. I can not see that SD does this. One possibilty is off course that he resigns.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #426 on: August 09, 2014, 12:38:04 PM »

Do you see the campaign as an interesting one, a balanced one or a dull one ?

It's been incredibly dull so far. But I guess there's still some hope the last month might turn out decently... if very little.

And what do you think turnout will be like ?

From what I remember, it was 84-85% in 2010 ...

Hard to say. If I had to take a guess I'd say that it'll decrease slightly and end up at 81-82%, but that's only my gut feeling.

I really doubt that the Red-Greens will get a majority next month. The Sweden Democrats will probably hold the "balance of power" like last time, but with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc this time around.

As do I. The only real hope for a majority would probably be either if FI imploded completely in the last month, or if they manage to recover and get above 4%. As it is now they leech to many voters that would otherwise vote for S, V, or MP without contributing. If the Alliance increases just as much as 1-2%, getting over the 175 line will be virtually impossible for the Mushrooms. (And in the last six elections, the incumbent government has always improved in the last month)

But of course, just to be clear, there's no knowing what might happen in the end. Elections are... weird. 

Would Reinfeldt try to remain in power in such a scenario, or would he step down?

Reinfeldt has one important advantage, he is in power. A majority in the parliament (riksdag) has to vote against him in a vote of cofidence in order for a change off power. I can not see that SD does this. One possibilty is off course that he resigns.

Four years ago you would have been entirely correct, Fredrik. However as part of the Constitutional Reform of 2010, the constitution now states that a vote of confidence must be held within two weeks of the opening of parliament. Meaning that Reinfeldt won't be able to just skate by the same way he did four years ago. (6:e kap. 3 § Regeringsformen

And even if the government could theoretically survive a vote of confidence thanks to enough MPs voting abstain, they will not be able to pass a budget unless they're bigger than S+V+MP. Meaning they'd just get outsed a month later.

So in all likelihood Reinfeldt will resign, allowing Löfvén an attempt to form government, which he most likely will succeed with thanks to abstaining right-wingers. That being said, without a majority Löfvén will be greatly wing-clipped and will either have to cross the aisle or rely on SD support to push through reforms, which will limit the amount of damage his government can do.     
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FredLindq
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« Reply #427 on: August 09, 2014, 02:47:24 PM »

Regarding passning budgets, it will be very tough for Löfven. Since The Red-Greens cooperated with the SD against the highering taxbrackets (brytpunkt) last year, this implies that there can be many single parts off the budget that unites the opposition.
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Tayya
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« Reply #428 on: August 09, 2014, 03:54:43 PM »

What Fred describes deserves an explanation for the international audience but it won't be good enough from my phone when I'm on holidays abroad.

Summarized: Gov't proposes tax decrease for well-off people, red-greens and SD opposed but somehow three red-green MPs miss the vote (Including S group leader Mikael Damberg (!) and V leader Jonas Sjöstedt (WTF.) so the tax break accidentally passes and the red-greens have to exploit the budget process to stop it, opening a can of worms. Compare killing the filibuster.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #429 on: August 09, 2014, 04:23:33 PM »

Rich in Swedish means 46 000 € per year... :-)
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Lurker
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« Reply #430 on: August 09, 2014, 04:55:06 PM »

What Fred describes deserves an explanation for the international audience but it won't be good enough from my phone when I'm on holidays abroad.

Summarized: Gov't proposes tax decrease for well-off people, red-greens and SD opposed but somehow three red-green MPs miss the vote (Including S group leader Mikael Damberg (!) and V leader Jonas Sjöstedt (WTF.) so the tax break accidentally passes and the red-greens have to exploit the budget process to stop it, opening a can of worms. Compare killing the filibuster.

LOL.

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Tayya
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« Reply #431 on: August 11, 2014, 09:44:06 AM »

Rerevising my prediction to a gov't hold. Margins decreasing, brainwashed faninists not coming around and it's becomkng more and more clear that the right plans to utilize SD to stay in power essentially forever to feed their donors with the ruins of our welfare state.
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jaichind
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« Reply #432 on: August 11, 2014, 12:20:25 PM »

I guess the question for this upcoming election would have to be

a) Will Feminist Initiative manage to cross the threshold to get seats
b) If a) is in the positive then it is likely that S-MP-V alliance might not get a majority and in which case would Feminist Initiative join or support a S-MP-V government.

Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?
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Lurker
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« Reply #433 on: August 11, 2014, 01:18:55 PM »

I guess the question for this upcoming election would have to be

a) Will Feminist Initiative manage to cross the threshold to get seats
b) If a) is in the positive then it is likely that S-MP-V alliance might not get a majority and in which case would Feminist Initiative join or support a S-MP-V government.

Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

B) Yes, they would. They are a clearly left-wing party and have made clear that they would never support the current government. Which of course makes them very superfluous and a big spoiler for the Red-Greens.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #434 on: August 11, 2014, 01:48:13 PM »

So I have some news. As of today, I am officially employed as Campaign Manager for the Centre Party in a local election close to where I live. So for the upcoming five weeks I'm afraid I'll be working round the clock and won't have very much time to post here. As much as discussing politics on here are great, being paid to work with politics in RL will have to take priority. Wink

However I do believe this thread is in good hands with Tayya.   

Rerevising my prediction to a gov't hold. Margins decreasing, brainwashed faninists not coming around and it's becomkng more and more clear that the right plans to utilize SD to stay in power essentially forever to feed their donors with the ruins of our welfare state.

... or maybe not. <.<


Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

Yes, Schyman has said they want the next government be led by Stefan Löfvén. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #435 on: August 11, 2014, 02:23:53 PM »

I guess the question for this upcoming election would have to be

a) Will Feminist Initiative manage to cross the threshold to get seats
b) If a) is in the positive then it is likely that S-MP-V alliance might not get a majority and in which case would Feminist Initiative join or support a S-MP-V government.

Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

B) Yes, they would. They are a clearly left-wing party and have made clear that they would never support the current government. Which of course makes them very superfluous and a big spoiler for the Red-Greens.

I see.  If so I guess the only hope that ruling alliance has of coming back would be for FI not to cross the threshold but take enough center-left votes such that the ruling alliance plus Swedish Democrats somehow exceeds  S-MP-V, then have the SD support the ruling alliance from the outside.  The problem with this setup is that SD's support base might drift away if they see SD "sellout" to the establishment and SD would be pressured to extract policy concessions from the ruling alliance which in turn would lead to the fall of the government and a landslide defeat of both the ruling alliance and SD.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #436 on: August 11, 2014, 02:44:45 PM »

Is there any chance of either C or KD falling below the threshold, or will Moderate party voters "loan" their votes to preserve the coalition?
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GAworth
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« Reply #437 on: August 11, 2014, 03:22:32 PM »

How is the FI (Feminist Initiative) doing in the polls, are they improving since they secured a seat in the EU Elections back in May, or was that the high water mark?
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FredLindq
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« Reply #438 on: August 11, 2014, 03:32:20 PM »

High water mark. They are below 3% now and are not improving.
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jaichind
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« Reply #439 on: August 11, 2014, 06:54:09 PM »

Aftonbladet and United Minds poll

* Swedish alliance government would get 36.8% of votes if a general election was held today vs 37% in July poll

* Three-party opposition, led by Social Democrats, supported by 46.6% in Aug. poll vs 47.4% in poll for July

* Gap between blocs narrowed to 9.8% in Aug., vs 10.4% in July and 17.7% in June

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 19.8% in Aug. vs 22.8% in July,  Liberal Party by 7.5% vs 5%, Center Party by 5.2% vs 4.8%, Christian Democrats by 4.3% vs 4.4%

* Social Democrats would get 29.6% vs 28%, Left Party supported by 7.2% vs 7.5%, Green Party by 9.8% vs 11.9%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive immigration policies, supported by 11.6% vs 10.5%; Feminist Initiative by 2.9% vs 4.0%

-------

Going by these results the S-MP-V might fail to get a majority on its own and not be able to count on FI.
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jaichind
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« Reply #440 on: August 11, 2014, 06:57:12 PM »

I am still confused on why SD support is not higher given the 2013 Stockholm riots.  In my view SD will most likely outperform their current polling as the riots must have had a lasting effect.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #441 on: August 11, 2014, 11:39:21 PM »

How is the FI (Feminist Initiative) doing in the polls, are they improving since they secured a seat in the EU Elections back in May, or was that the high water mark?

They're holding at around 2,5-3%, which is roughly the same raw numbers of votes the party got in the EU election but because turnout is higher in the parliamentary election it's not enough for them to get above the threshold.
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GAworth
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« Reply #442 on: August 12, 2014, 09:41:02 PM »

How is the FI (Feminist Initiative) doing in the polls, are they improving since they secured a seat in the EU Elections back in May, or was that the high water mark?

They're holding at around 2,5-3%, which is roughly the same raw numbers of votes the party got in the EU election but because turnout is higher in the parliamentary election it's not enough for them to get above the threshold.
Threshold is 5% I am assuming?
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jaichind
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« Reply #443 on: August 12, 2014, 09:51:02 PM »


I think it is a threshold of 4%, but if a party reaches 12% in one election district, it will be represented even if it does not reach the 4% level nationally.  This is similar to Germany where the threshold is 5% but if a party wins 3 seats in FPTP then this 5% rule is waived.  Not 100% sure about this but this is what I recall.
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politicus
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« Reply #444 on: August 13, 2014, 06:26:11 AM »

How is the FI (Feminist Initiative) doing in the polls, are they improving since they secured a seat in the EU Elections back in May, or was that the high water mark?

They're holding at around 2,5-3%, which is roughly the same raw numbers of votes the party got in the EU election but because turnout is higher in the parliamentary election it's not enough for them to get above the threshold.
Threshold is 5% I am assuming?

Nah, 4%.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #445 on: August 13, 2014, 02:34:46 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2014, 04:19:24 PM by The Lord Marbury »

Demoskop poll for the Stockholm city council election:

Left: 10,1% (+2,7)
Social Democrats: 21,5% (-1,1)
Greens: 19,2% (+5,3)

Centre: 3,0% (-1,0)
Liberal: 7,1% (-2,9)
Moderate: 26,1% (-8,3)
Christian Democrats: 2,2% (-1,3)

Sweden Democrats: 4,1% (-1,5)
Feminist Initiative: 5,5% (+4,3)

Centre-left bloc: 50,8% (+6,9)
-56,3% with FI (+11,2)

Alliance: 38,4% (-13,5)

So like the rest of the country things certainly point towards an opposition victory in Stockholm as well. The Greens are as usual doing much better in the city than the rest of the country while S is doing quite poorly even for Stockholm. The question is they'll even do so poorly that the Greens will overtake them and become the biggest party on the left. But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)
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politicus
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« Reply #446 on: August 13, 2014, 06:40:38 PM »

But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)

What is the reason for this?
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« Reply #447 on: August 13, 2014, 06:52:01 PM »

But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)

What is the reason for this?

If I was to guess, it'd be young people telling pollsters one thing, then not turning up to vote on the day
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #448 on: August 15, 2014, 01:53:32 AM »

But as the Greens notoriously overpreform in polls  something quite extraordinary would be required for that to happen. (in august 2010 only 2% seperated them from S, but on election day they were 9% behind)

What is the reason for this?

If I was to guess, it'd be young people telling pollsters one thing, then not turning up to vote on the day

That's probably not it, because the Greens tends to over-preform in Exit Polls as well. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #449 on: August 15, 2014, 12:00:51 PM »

It is because Sweden is secretly twin-countried with New Zealand.
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