SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

Stefan Löfven's path to Rosenbad has become ever so slightly easier: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/22/us-sweden-election-idUSKBN0GM1CQ20140822

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[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder if this could hurt V's electoral results (and thus indirectly the Red Coalition) though.

[Tayya]

I wonder if this could hurt V's electoral results (and thus indirectly the Red Coalition) though.

Nah. I can't think of a V voter that doesn't presume that they'd support a Löfven government.

[Tayya]

Soon 3 weeks and 1 day until Election Day and we have a new SIFO poll:



S, V and MP barely, barely have a majority together.

The M and C results for this week are relatively big changes, but both make more sense this week than last week. SD doesn't appear to have gained from Reinfeldt's speech (but their numbers are painfully big.)

For the record, this is almost exactly where I predict the actual opinion to be at currently.

[Lurker]

I wonder who the 2-2,5% who still supports FI are. In addition to being basically superfluous, they're also obviously a spoiler for the Red-Greens. 8 years of a centre-right government really should make a few of them vote tactically - then again, it would not be untypical if the left ruined its own chances.

[Tayya]

I wonder who the 2-2,5% who still supports FI are. In addition to being basically superfluous, they're also obviously a spoiler for the Red-Greens. 8 years of a centre-right government really should make a few of them vote tactically - then again, it would not be untypical if the left ruined its own chances.

Bobo people who can't read poll trends and who think that most feminist = most right.

An important factor to take note of is that 4% isn't the only threshold in Sweden. 1% of the vote gets a party state-funded ballots for the two following elections and 2.5% means that a party gets funds from the state. I don't know the exact amounts but Fi would be able to multiply their campaign budget several times with state money. Therefore, a Fi vote is somewhat less useless than it appears.

[Tayya]

Expressen/Demoskop also has a poll out today showing mostly similar numbers to SIFO, though weaker for the Red-Greens, slightly stronger for M and over 12% for SD. I'm not getting the exact number because Expressen is a blue-leaning tabloid and their last poll was before the summer when the EP election was still fresh, meaning that the Moderates climbing 4% is presented as a huge success when they're going from under 20 to 23.5. Frankly, I don't need that headache.

Suffice to say, a SVaMP majority is looking somewhat more unlikely.

[njwes]

People from Syria/Eritrea/Iraq/Afghanistan/Africa

All countries whose citizens are known for their enlightened and progressive world-views, surely

[Tender Branson]

Expressen/Demoskop also has a poll out today showing mostly similar numbers to SIFO, though weaker for the Red-Greens, slightly stronger for M and over 12% for SD.

I'm pretty sure the Sweden-Democrats will get some 12-14% in this election.

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

[ingemann]

We're kind of far from Denmark. For better and worse, I guess.

For better.

Don't worry Denmark was where Sweden is in the late 80ties and early 90ties, and what you see in Denmark today are the counterreaction to that. So Sweden can look forward toward 20-30 years of the Danish debate. It will be hilarious.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

Not any that I know of.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We're kind of far from Denmark. For better and worse, I guess.

For better.

Don't worry Denmark was where Sweden is in the late 80ties and early 90ties, and what you see in Denmark today are the counterreaction to that. So Sweden can look forward toward 20-30 years of the Danish debate. It will be hilarious.

Indeed, rabid xenophobia is so hilarious...

[ingemann]

We're kind of far from Denmark. For better and worse, I guess.

For better.

Don't worry Denmark was where Sweden is in the late 80ties and early 90ties, and what you see in Denmark today are the counterreaction to that. So Sweden can look forward toward 20-30 years of the Danish debate. It will be hilarious.

Indeed, rabid xenophobia is so hilarious...

Seeing that third world immigrants (and refugees) and descendants in Denmark, have a higher job rate, lower crime rate, higher education rate than in Sweden, well I guess it's good for something. But I guess it's better to place people in parallel societies, where they can live uneducated and jobless.

[Tayya]

OK, guys, stop this. Danish and Swedish media both love to score cheap points through demonizing the other country, which affects our relations negatively. No need to keep that demonization rolling. There are things both countries can learn from each other.

[Gustaf]

OK, guys, stop this. Danish and Swedish media both love to score cheap points through demonizing the other country, which affects our relations negatively. No need to keep that demonization rolling. There are things both countries can learn from each other.

What are you, a Dane?

[politicus]

OK, guys, stop this. Danish and Swedish media both love to score cheap points through demonizing the other country, which affects our relations negatively. No need to keep that demonization rolling. There are things both countries can learn from each other.

What are you, a Dane?

Nah, more like a Scanian. A real Dane would not have admitted Denmark can learn anything from Sweden.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

OK, guys, stop this. Danish and Swedish media both love to score cheap points through demonizing the other country, which affects our relations negatively. No need to keep that demonization rolling. There are things both countries can learn from each other.

What are you, a Dane?

Nah, more like a Scanian. A real Dane would not have admitted Denmark can learn anything from Sweden.

Never! A true Scanian such as myself would call both Danes and Swedes deluded and moronic. We just want our independence from the both of you.

The obvious answer is that Tayya is Norwegian. There's no point denying it! There's astounding proof of this theory, such as the fact that he didn't make a single forum post on May 17th! Now that can only mean one thing:

 

[Tayya]

If anything, I'm a Finn.

[The Lord Marbury]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2054

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2054

Thx.

Swedish police use horses ? Why not just tear-gas and water-cannon the protestors ? Probably better than having a horse trample on people's heads ...

[politicus]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2054

Thx.

Swedish police use horses ? Why not just tear-gas and water-cannon the protestors ? Probably better than having a horse trample on people's head ...

Water cannons can cause severe damages.  Horses are generally efficient in breaking up crowds, but only if the protestors actually move when they advance.

[Tayya]

Today is a great day, because as of today, early voting has started.

Also, we're having a Novus/Göteborgs-Posten poll of the Gothenburg local election:



Changes since the 2010 election:

S: -5.2% (29.4%)
V: +2.7% (7.1%)
MP: +3.6% (9.9%)

Incumbents: +1.1% (46.4%)

M: -1.8% (25.5%)
FP: -1.6% (8.4%)
C: +0.8% (2.3%)
KD: +1.3% (3.8%)

Right-Wing Bloc: -1.4% (40.0%)

SD: +1.9% (4.5%)
VV*: -2.1% (5.3%)
Fi: +0.3% (1.2%)
Others: +0.1% (2.7%)

This is despite the incumbent government performing badly and being hit by corruption scandals as well the local tabloid forcing through a referendum on congestion taxes against the political majority's will. I'm especially surprised by the slumping of VägValet (the single-issue anti-congestion tax party) considering the latter, but perhaps voters still haven't remembered their existence. It might just be a sloppy poll, though. The sample size is only 500 and 20% are still undecided.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.

[Zanas]

The sample size is only 500 and 20% are still undecided.

While I don't disagree, you know they poll Austria regularly with this kind of sample...