SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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ingemann
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« Reply #500 on: August 27, 2014, 10:52:03 AM »

The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.


I must admit I find the fact that they get more than 1% of the vote amazing, who votes for them?
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #501 on: August 27, 2014, 04:12:24 PM »

The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.


I must admit I find the fact that they get more than 1% of the vote amazing, who votes for them?

Pretentious 20-something hipsters who see elections as a chance at making a statement, and not as actually choosing people to govern us for the next four years. They're a fad, and they'll once more disappear into obscurity once they fail to enter parliament in three weeks.

Still, with around 2-3% of the support they should be able to conquer seats at a few City Council besides Schyman's home town of Simrishamn, and Gothenburg should be a prime target, but if they can't muster more than 1,5% in a city that brim with their target audience, they're becoming irrelevant even faster than I'd have expected them to. 
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #502 on: August 29, 2014, 02:37:09 PM »

New Sifo poll:

S: 29,0% (-1,9%) 106 seats
V: 6,1% (-1,4%) 22 seats
MP: 11,0% (+0,7%) 40 seats

M: 22,6% (+0,4%) 82 seats
C: 5,9% (+0,4%) 22 seats
FP: 5,8% (-0,2%) 21 seats
KD: 4,5% (+0,2%) 16 seats

SD: 11,0% (+0,9%) 40 seats
FI: 2,9% (+0,6%) 0 seats


* * * * * * * * *

Alliance - 141 seats
Mushrooms - 163 seats


The left is 7 seats short of an overall majority. HUNG PARLIAMENT!!!

Who'd have ever guessed that Gudrun Schyman would end up as the savior of the right. How long until left-wing people start calling for FI-supporters to abondon the party for tacticaal reasons again... counting down three.. two.. 
 
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Tayya
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« Reply #503 on: August 29, 2014, 02:59:11 PM »

New Sifo poll:

S: 29,0% (-1,9%) 106 seats
V: 6,1% (-1,4%) 22 seats
MP: 11,0% (+0,7%) 40 seats

M: 22,6% (+0,4%) 82 seats
C: 5,9% (+0,4%) 22 seats
FP: 5,8% (-0,2%) 21 seats
KD: 4,5% (+0,2%) 16 seats

SD: 11,0% (+0,9%) 40 seats
FI: 2,9% (+0,6%) 0 seats


* * * * * * * * *

Alliance - 141 seats
Mushrooms - 163 seats


The left is 7 seats short of an overall majority. HUNG PARLIAMENT!!!

Who'd have ever guessed that Gudrun Schyman would end up as the savior of the right. How long until left-wing people start calling for FI-supporters to abondon the party for tacticaal reasons again... counting down three.. two.. 
 

Considering the rabidness of their core supporters, some (me) might just not bother calling them out, in order to avoid being scathed. Initiate Operation: Subtlety.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #504 on: August 29, 2014, 03:13:54 PM »

New Sifo poll:

S: 29,0% (-1,9%) 106 seats
V: 6,1% (-1,4%) 22 seats
MP: 11,0% (+0,7%) 40 seats

M: 22,6% (+0,4%) 82 seats
C: 5,9% (+0,4%) 22 seats
FP: 5,8% (-0,2%) 21 seats
KD: 4,5% (+0,2%) 16 seats

SD: 11,0% (+0,9%) 40 seats
FI: 2,9% (+0,6%) 0 seats


* * * * * * * * *

Alliance - 141 seats
Mushrooms - 163 seats


The left is 7 seats short of an overall majority. HUNG PARLIAMENT!!!

Who'd have ever guessed that Gudrun Schyman would end up as the savior of the right. How long until left-wing people start calling for FI-supporters to abondon the party for tacticaal reasons again... counting down three.. two.. 
 

Considering the rabidness of their core supporters, some (me) might just not bother calling them out, in order to avoid being scathed. Initiate Operation: Subtlety.

Well considering the response Göran Greider got last time he brought up the subject, I wouldn't blame anyone from abstaining from the task.

But it's intresting to note that the scenario he painted up is manifesting itself in front of our very eyes.
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Cassius
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« Reply #505 on: August 29, 2014, 03:22:14 PM »

If those results were to be replicated in the election, what would happen. Would the Alliance stay in power with the support of the Sweden Democrats from outside the government, or might one of the Alliance parties cross the floor to support the centre-left instead? Or might Reinfeldt call another election (he's not very friendly to the Sweden Democrats I believe)?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #506 on: August 29, 2014, 03:47:53 PM »

If those results were to be replicated in the election, what would happen. Would the Alliance stay in power with the support of the Sweden Democrats from outside the government, or might one of the Alliance parties cross the floor to support the centre-left instead? Or might Reinfeldt call another election (he's not very friendly to the Sweden Democrats I believe)?

An alliance government supported by the Sweden Democrats is not happening. At least not with this type of polling.

An Alliance party going over could happen, but then V would probably have to be out of the government. So it'd almost certainly be a minority government, but that'd be ok because they'd be unlikely to get a majority against themselves.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #507 on: August 29, 2014, 03:59:57 PM »

If those results were to be replicated in the election, what would happen. Would the Alliance stay in power with the support of the Sweden Democrats from outside the government, or might one of the Alliance parties cross the floor to support the centre-left instead? Or might Reinfeldt call another election (he's not very friendly to the Sweden Democrats I believe)?

Political chaos and anarchy if you are to believe the Swedish press. Tongue

The current government would be to weak to continue as is. Reinfeldt has had trouble enough these four years governing with two seats short of a majority, governing while being more than 30 seats short of a majority isn't a possible scenario.

Most likely we'll see a left-wing minority government that seeks support across the aisle (Reinfeldt has indicated that he wouldn't vote against Löfvén in a potential confidence vote) or a Social Democratic led government including FP or C.

New elections are basically unheard of in Sweden. Early election has only happened once in last century, and it's nothing any of the parties desire. (At least not this soon after the election)   
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Lurker
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« Reply #508 on: August 29, 2014, 04:08:59 PM »

As predicted, the "Feminist Initiative" is serving as Swedens's answer to Ralph Nader.
 I guess the kind of people who vote for them cares more about whether the parties have "feminist" in their names than about actual policy, so there is probably no point in trying to convince their followers to vote tactically.

We  might well see a more extreme version of the "4% dillemma" in the next Norwegian general election. Here, the Red-Greens/Centre-Left often polls relatively close to 50% of the popular vote, yet the same polls show a massive centre-right parliamentary majority. Why? Because 4 of the 5 "left-wing" parties are under or near the treshold.
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« Reply #509 on: August 29, 2014, 05:27:22 PM »

As predicted, the "Feminist Initiative" is serving as Swedens's answer to Ralph Nader.
 I guess the kind of people who vote for them cares more about whether the parties have "feminist" in their names than about actual policy, so there is probably no point in trying to convince their followers to vote tactically.

Pretentious 20-something hipsters who see elections as a chance at making a statement, and not as actually choosing people to govern us for the next four years. They're a fad, and they'll once more disappear into obscurity once they fail to enter parliament in three weeks.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH_MBwQhGgA
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Zanas
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« Reply #510 on: August 29, 2014, 07:04:09 PM »

I always find it rather funny when large party supporters whine about how small parties spoil their votes and make them lose. I mean, isn't it primarily S's fault if they can only muster 29% of the vote while being the serious party that has governed Sweden for forty years ? Isn't it their job to convince voters that they are the credible alternative, and not FI or any other option ? Isn't democracy about giving voters choices, options, some of which seem like moderate hero-serious, while others seem like far-fetched for now, but could look otherwise in ten years ?

So just suck it up and get to wonder why S, V and MP have so much of a hard time gaining a majority of votes and seats on their own, not whether outfit X or Y is stealing them what they do not own.
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EPG
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« Reply #511 on: August 30, 2014, 06:33:52 AM »

isn't it primarily S's fault if they can only muster 29% of the vote while being the serious party that has governed Sweden for forty years ? Isn't it their job to convince voters that they are the credible alternative, and not FI or any other option ?

Yes, and yes.

If there is a problem, it is the arbitrary percentage threshold, not the existence of parties or people who support parties below that threshold.

Even if politics were just about policy, look across the North Sea to the UK. UKIP gets issues on the agenda that other parties would prefer to ignore, even though UKIP will win very few, if any, Westminster seats.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #512 on: August 30, 2014, 09:53:54 AM »

Amusing to see a Trot argue that elections are governed by the logic of the market and the existence of the rational consumer of electoral goods.
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Zanas
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« Reply #513 on: August 30, 2014, 11:52:00 AM »

Isn't it ? I am a growingly blasé Trot, to be honest. Blasé about all this. I still love psephology as it is, but I tend to despise its actual political contents more and more, to the point that I now clearly contemplate not voting in some occasions.
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ingemann
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« Reply #514 on: August 30, 2014, 12:19:28 PM »

The Gothenburg government is of course the (or at least one of the) worst in the entire country. But that was true four years ago as well, and if we didn't manage to outs them back then, we won't this time either with the national winds. The fact that voting has shifted so little compared to national trends of course still speaks volumes and is bad enough for the Social Democrats. (Still won't stop their mayor from getting a cushy job in the new administration on the national level.)

What surprises me is how badly FI is polling. Seeing as they polled pretty strong for Stockholm City Council, I would have expected they at least would outdo their national polling support here.


I must admit I find the fact that they get more than 1% of the vote amazing, who votes for them?

Pretentious 20-something hipsters who see elections as a chance at making a statement, and not as actually choosing people to govern us for the next four years. They're a fad, and they'll once more disappear into obscurity once they fail to enter parliament in three weeks.

Still, with around 2-3% of the support they should be able to conquer seats at a few City Council besides Schyman's home town of Simrishamn, and Gothenburg should be a prime target, but if they can't muster more than 1,5% in a city that brim with their target audience, they're becoming irrelevant even faster than I'd have expected them to. 

So they're that kind of party, let's hope they don't come in.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #515 on: August 30, 2014, 01:30:11 PM »

The hate against FI in this thread is just incredible. If there's one thing Europe clearly lacks - or the world for that matter - it's having more parties like FI.

Now onto something completely different. I've calculated the average of the 11 polls done so far in August, as published by Wikipedia. Those include 4 from Sifo, 3 from United Minds, 2 from Ipsos and one each from Demoskop & YouGov.

The August average of Swedish polls show this ranking:

1. Sosialdemokraterna - 30.4%
2. Moderaterna - 22.3%
3. Sverigedemokraterna – 10.4%
4. Miljøpartiet – 10.3%
5. Vänsterpartiet – 6.9%
6. Folkpartiet – 6.5%
7. Centerpartiet – 4.9%
8. Kristdemokraterna – 4.3%
9. Feministisk Initiativ – 2.9%

Which gives us these constellations.

S + MP + V = 47.6%
S + MP + V + FI = 50.5%
M + F + C + K = 38%

In other words, the red-green side is currently leading by between 9.6% and 12.5%. It'll be interesting to see which party will end up as the third most popular party in the end.

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.
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Tayya
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« Reply #516 on: August 30, 2014, 01:37:42 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2014, 01:44:01 PM by Tayya »

The hate against FI in this thread is just incredible. If there's one thing Europe clearly lacks - or the world for that matter - it's having more parties like FI.

Now onto something completely different. I've calculated the average of the 11 polls done so far in August, as published by Wikipedia. Those include 4 from Sifo, 3 from United Minds, 2 from Ipsos and one each from Demoskop & YouGov.

The August average of Swedish polls show this ranking:

1. Sosialdemokraterna - 30.4%
2. Moderaterna - 22.3%
3. Sverigedemokraterna – 10.4%
4. Miljøpartiet – 10.3%
5. Vänsterpartiet – 6.9%
6. Folkpartiet – 6.5%
7. Centerpartiet – 4.9%
8. Kristdemokraterna – 4.3%
9. Feministisk Initiativ – 2.9%

Which gives us these constellations.

S + MP + V = 47.6%
S + MP + V + FI = 50.5%
M + F + C + K = 38%

In other words, the red-green side is currently leading by between 9.6% and 12.5%. It'll be interesting to see which party will end up as the third most popular party in the end.

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.

For what it's worth, I wouldn't really mind them at all if they weren't probably spoiling a red-green majority.
Including the polls from early August isn't a very good practice, for what it's worth. The race has probably tightened since then.

I like to use Botten Ada, a Bayesian predictor. They rely too much on the Statistics Sweden biannual poll, though, which tends to overstate S, so subtract 1% from S and add to M and you get a realistic result.
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ingemann
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« Reply #517 on: August 30, 2014, 01:47:02 PM »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #518 on: August 30, 2014, 01:51:56 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2014, 01:54:37 PM by eric82oslo »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Feminism is an ideology btw, just like liberalism and conservative, it is not an issue. Anyone who thinks they are a one issue party knows absolutely nothing about them. Talk about ignorance. They have bold stances on the military, environment and a whole range of other issues.
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ingemann
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« Reply #519 on: August 30, 2014, 01:55:52 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2014, 03:19:44 PM by ingemann »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #520 on: August 30, 2014, 03:32:43 PM »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.
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ingemann
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« Reply #521 on: August 30, 2014, 03:46:10 PM »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #522 on: August 30, 2014, 03:50:17 PM »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

I guess we have diamentrically different views on artists then. Tongue For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society. Without artists, there would be no John Lennon or Imagine for instance, just to take the most famous of a trillion examples. Artists dear to dream about the future in a way that other people even don't have the luxury to do (not enough time) or don't have the mental capacity to do.
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ingemann
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« Reply #523 on: August 30, 2014, 03:59:56 PM »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

I guess we have diamentrically different views on artists then. Tongue For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society. Without artists, there would be no John Lennon or Imagine for instance, just to take the most famous of a trillion examples. Artists dear to dream about the future in a way that other people even don't have the luxury to do (not enough time) or don't have the mental capacity to do.

Well I guess that's a disagreement, I personal think that experience and knowledge give you political insight, and I'm very grateful that it was not artists like Tom Clancy which decided the American anti-terror policies.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #524 on: August 30, 2014, 04:36:55 PM »

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

I guess we have diamentrically different views on artists then. Tongue For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society. Without artists, there would be no John Lennon or Imagine for instance, just to take the most famous of a trillion examples. Artists dear to dream about the future in a way that other people even don't have the luxury to do (not enough time) or don't have the mental capacity to do.

Well I guess that's a disagreement, I personal think that experience and knowledge give you political insight, and I'm very grateful that it was not artists like Tom Clancy which decided the American anti-terror policies.

No idea who Tom Clancy is to be honest. Apparently he's not a big name internationally.
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