SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

Actively considering moving to Canada.

[Lurker]

The polling average looks like this with 12 days to go:

Red-Greens: 46,7%

Alliance: 38,2%

Sweden Democrats: 10,9%

Feminist party: 3,0%


Looks like there'll be a "hung parliament" with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, it's happening...

[Tayya]

The fun thing with analyzing politics from a structural, fly-on-the-wall perspective is that you see things coming. It still kind of hurts when the actual numbers arrive, though.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Actively considering moving to Canada.

Stephen Harper approves




Anyway, there's still a week and a half to go, so it isn't quite over just yet, but it's looking increasingly unlikely that the centre-left manages to capture a majority next Sunday.

You know considering the circumstances this isn't shaping up to as horrible an election as I suspected it might be. If only FI could end up just bellow 2,5% as well, I would be sort of satisfied.     

[Tayya]

I don't have a personal investment in disliking Stephen Harper, so that's probably a net positive.

On happier notes, here's a movie for ya.

[The Lord Marbury]

I don't have a personal investment in disliking Stephen Harper, so that's probably a net positive.

On happier notes, here's a movie for ya.

On even happier notes, here's a better movie.

[Gustaf]

This is a pretty cool graph. It clusters candidates from the different parties based on their responses to election compasses.

http://val2014.silobreaker.se/

[Lurker]

Cool graph.
That one Social Democrat who aligns closest to all the centre-right candidates (Mayson Murad) must feel very out-of-place in her party.
The same of course goes for the single Christian Democrat who is placed dangerously close to all the Sweden Democrats (who are otherwise all by themselves).

[politicus]

Cool graph.
That one Social Democrat who aligns closest to all the centre-right candidates (Mayson Murad) must feel very out-of-place in her party.
The same of course goes for the single Christian Democrat who is placed dangerously close to all the Sweden Democrats (who are otherwise all by themselves).

Stig Töyrä, 58. He is from Pajala in Norrbotten which is practically in Finland and Finnish speaking, so maybe he is a True Finn in disguise .

Murad having an Iraqi background likely plays a role in her akward position on the chart. Many politically active immigrants join a left wing party as the most pro-multicultural option while having mainly centre-right values. In her case she seems to be very pro-business.

[Tayya]

So Aftonbladet has gotten hold of the information that the Minister of Financial Market, Peter Norman (M) sent a text message containing the words "You owe me big time" to a "star lobbyist" at the Federation of Swedish Farmers after the latest budget was presented in April, which included a hefty dose of pork for the rural areas. The lobbyist - who is female - is apparantly "friends" with Norman, but the article essentially confirms that they had an affair, especially by noting that the government staff responded to investigations with a press release on Mr. Norman and his wife getting divorced. He has apologized for sending the SMS, for the record.

You can't make stuff like this up, folks. It's Friday, though, so it won't be as big of a deal as it could have been.

http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/valaret2014/article19481211.ab

[eric82oslo]

Cool graph.
That one Social Democrat who aligns closest to all the centre-right candidates (Mayson Murad) must feel very out-of-place in her party.
The same of course goes for the single Christian Democrat who is placed dangerously close to all the Sweden Democrats (who are otherwise all by themselves).

Andrea Bromhed is my new favourite Swedish politician.



I'm disappointed that Folkpartiet and Feministiskt Initiativ are that close to Sverigedemokraterna on the chart.

Also, how come Centerpartiet is the second most anti-Sverigedemokraterna party after Miljøpartiet? Makes absolutely no sense to me. Unless SD is much more mainstream than the media seems to portray, which is probably the case I guess... Otherwise FI would have been much farther away from them for sure.

[politicus]

SD has fairly standard centrist/centre-left pro-welfare policies and "normal" policies outside of immigration, development aid, law and order and EU.

[Tayya]

That chart isn't really based off any actual issues, but just the candidates' responses. The party clusters' positions are probably decided from relatively small areas of common issue positions.

[Tayya]

Good news for Team Blue: Today's new Sifo poll shows the bloc gap down to 4.5% thanks to S dropping and FP gaining 2%.

Bad news for Team Blue: The red-greens lead by 11.5% in today's Demoskop polls and by ~9-10% in the latest Ipsos and Novus polls.

There was a YouGov poll today as well, but I don't remember the results - no big changes, anyways.

[Tender Branson]

Is the dog a symbol for blonde, blue-eyed Swedes ?

[politicus]

Der innere Schweinehund, perhaps?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Good news for Team Blue: Today's new Sifo poll shows the bloc gap down to 4.5% thanks to S dropping and FP gaining 2%.

Bad news for Team Blue: The red-greens lead by 11.5% in today's Demoskop polls and by ~9-10% in the latest Ipsos and Novus polls.

There was a YouGov poll today as well, but I don't remember the results - no big changes, anyways.

I don't undertsand this election any longer! Could we please get some constistency in  polling for just a few days.

I'm disappointed that Folkpartiet and Feministiskt Initiativ are that close to Sverigedemokraterna on the chart.

Also, how come Centerpartiet is the second most anti-Sverigedemokraterna party after Miljøpartiet?

Because Centerpartiet is just that awsome!

No but the serious answer is that C has taken a strong liberal position on immigration and other social issues, in complete opposition to the Conservative Sweden Democrats. You have to remeber that the Swedish Centre Party is closer to Venstre than the Norwegian Centre Party.

Folkpartiet are very pro-defense and have a very similar school policy, that's probably why they're falling close to eachother. FI are facists in pink sheep's clothing.  

[Lurker]

So far the SIFO poll is a clear outlier. It could correct of course, but then a fair number of other pollsters would have eggs on their faces.

Though not surprisingly the SIFO poll is the one getting all the attention in Swedish media (trying to create momentum for the Alliance? Nah, I guess the story of a very close race between the blocks just "sells" much better at this point).

[Zanas]

Who is Vänster's Carin Högstedt and why is she all by herself among the Greenies ? I may like her.

[Gustaf]

From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

[Tayya]

From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

Nice concern trolling.

Both SKOP and United Minds (I know...) covered the same period (SKOP a bit earlier as well) and show the gap at ~10%.

Ipsos is a continuation of Synovate which was formerly TEMO, and Novus is an incarnate of what was once the Swedish department of Gallup (and was also the closest poll in the EP elections).

[Lurker]

The five polls released during the past two days have shown the following differences between the blocks (all showing Red-Greens leads, of course):

Sifo - 4,5%

United Minds - 9,0%

Novus - 9,9%

Ipsos - 11,2%

Demoskop - 11,5%


Strange that SIFO would diverge that much from all the other pollsters.

[The Lord Marbury]

Botten Ada, which looks like an attempt to make a Swedish version of fivethirtyeight has the following prediction of the election outcome:

Left: 7,2%
Social Democrats: 31,4%
Greens: 9,2%

Centre: 5,1%
Liberals: 6,4%
Moderate: 21,5%
Christian Democrats: 4,9%

Sweden Democrats: 10,0%
Feminist Initiative: 2,5%

Leftwing opposition: 47,8%
Alliance: 37,9%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Botten Ada, which looks like an attempt to make a Swedish version of fivethirtyeight has the following prediction of the election outcome.

I do believe the prediction becomes more intresting looking at the interval between what they judge the boundries of the possibilities is. (Does that make sense?) 

Left: 6,0%-8,5%
Social Democrats: 28,0%-34,5%
Greens: 7,4%-10,8%

Centre: 4,3%-6,0%
Liberals: 5,3%-7,5%
Moderate: 18,4%-24,6%
Christian Democrats: 4,0%-5,7%

Sweden Democrats: 8,5%-11,6%
Feminist Initiative: 1,3%-3,5%

I do believe that all of the parties, will for certain (with the posible exception of the unreliable SD and FI), fall between these numbers in the end.