SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[ingemann]

In the old days Danish pollsters, had a hard time getting DPP right in the polls (usual guessing 2% too low), do Swedish pollsters have the same problem?

[Tayya]

In the old days Danish pollsters, had a hard time getting DPP right in the polls (usual guessing 2% too low), do Swedish pollsters have the same problem?

Difficult to say. In 2006, most pollsters didn't release SD's numbers separately, but they appear to have been within the margin of error most of the time though erring on the low side (we're talking 1% here). In 2010, essentially the same thing happened, though it's easy to overblow it as Sifo's very last poll somehow had them below 4%. On the other hand, United Minds, the web poll, tended to have SD at over 6 or even 7% in the week leading up to the election.

I expect SD to overperform somewhat, yes, but not more than by 1-1.5%.

[Gustaf]

From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

Nice concern trolling.

Both SKOP and United Minds (I know...) covered the same period (SKOP a bit earlier as well) and show the gap at ~10%.

Ipsos is a continuation of Synovate which was formerly TEMO, and Novus is an incarnate of what was once the Swedish department of Gallup (and was also the closest poll in the EP elections).

Note, that I said from what I understood. I've seen several people claim this thing about the timing and haven't seen the dates myself. If you have the dates I'd be very interested to see them.

TEMO was good, although the guy that took over there always struck me as a buffoon compared to the predecessor. I think he is at Novus now? Gallup was awful back in the day, as I recall.

I'm not particularly committed in this election, beyond a desire for chaos, but SIFO has always been the institute I trust the most so I'd take a poll by them seriously. If no one else catches on, it'd be time to reevaluate that though.

[Gustaf]

From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

Nice concern trolling.

Both SKOP and United Minds (I know...) covered the same period (SKOP a bit earlier as well) and show the gap at ~10%.

Ipsos is a continuation of Synovate which was formerly TEMO, and Novus is an incarnate of what was once the Swedish department of Gallup (and was also the closest poll in the EP elections).

SKOP is not really comparable to SIFO. The SKOP poll was done 21 Aug-4 Sep. The SIFO poll, 1 Sep-4 Sep. Not sure how the SKOP interviews were distributed, but if opinion moved in the last week it wouldn't catch most of that. The United Minds one is 31 Aug to 5 Sep so that one is comparable. But then, if given the choice between United Minds and SIFO I'd be more inclined to trust SIFO I suppose. The interesting thing will be whether the next slew of polls indicate any movement or if SIFO did a screwup.

Fingers crossed for chaos!

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

Well, as much as the News Papers like to scream about CHAOS, it's not like "chaos" will actually mean there will be any actual chaos, it'll mean more of a gridlock, which at worst means preservation of statues que. Worst case scenario is that Löfvén's government somehow screws up big during the term in some sort of scandal, and Alliance + SD pass a vote of no confidence against them thereby provoking an early election, but that demands quite a bit of screwing up from the left's side.   

So from a centre-right perspective there's really nothing preferable about a left-wing majority as opposed to a hung parliament. A little "chaos" might in fact make the politics a bit more interesting than they've been for the last four years.   

[Antonio the Sixth]

The prospect of Sweden Democrats (or alternatively some weird yuppyish center-rightists) holding the balance of power against a weak left-wing government doesn't strike me as particularly exciting, but that's just me.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The prospect of Sweden Democrats (or alternatively some weird yuppyish center-rightists) holding the balance of power against a weak left-wing government doesn't strike me as particularly exciting, but that's just me.

If you did find that idea exciting I would worry that someone had either hacked your account, or kidnapped you.

[Gustaf]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In instant runoff system they would prefer M over other parties?

In European elections their heartland were rural Götaland and Svealand (suprisingly) not immigrantfull suburbs. I just thought would those people prefer M or C or SAP or even KD (whatever of the less-liberal party is perceived most anti-EU).

In Finland True Finns include former Centre voters (that actually come back and voted SMP in eigthies before that party collapsed), very much SDP in some areas, propably some pro-military KOK voters, but also very many Sleepers.

In 2010, most of their voters were people who would not have turned out for any other party. (According to exit polls)

The ones who simply wouldn't stay home in a runoff would probably distribute quite unevenly. A lot of their support is rural working-class that would go for S over M every day of the week, while others would probably go for one of the burgious parties. It's really hard to say. Hopefully the VALU exit poll will include a shart for second-choice (It has done sometimes in the past)

And the fact that SD is strongest in rural and small town Götaland and Sveland where multiculture consists of a Pizza place is of course well known. Still there are exceptions, SD's strongest precinct in the entire country is the very urban, next-door neighbours to Rosengård, Almgården. But that is sort of a special case.     

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

[Lurker]

Bad news for the Red-Greens. Todays new Novus poll supports Sifo's latest results - only a 5,0% difference between the two blocks. In other words, last week's lead has been halved.

A "hung parliament", with neither of the blocks having a majority, seems a foregone conclusion now.

[Tayya]

I am so INKS!!ing angry right now I thank God I'm not physically nearby anyone.

But seriously, the closing cap is thanks to... C? Approaching 7%? I resign on the bloc gap being way too close for comfort (apparantly the gap closed to 2.9% on the later polling days, but that should be taken with a huge dose of salt - I recall Aftonbladet trying to spin such a statistic as a huge boon for Håkan Juholt when he was elected party leader, an increase that didn't hold until next month) but the internal party numbers are very, very odd and inexplicable. Is it the debates that start to matter? I don't even recall anything special happening in them?

[jaichind]

Bad news for the Red-Greens. Todays new Novus poll supports Sifo's latest results - only a 5,0% difference between the two blocks. In other words, last week's lead has been halved.

A "hung parliament", with neither of the blocks having a majority, seems a foregone conclusion now.

Will this matter if it comes to pass ? I thought Fredrik Reinfeldt already stated that if his alliance falls short of the S-MP-V alliance then he will not make a claim to form a government, which obviously requires support from SD.

[Tayya]

Bad news for the Red-Greens. Todays new Novus poll supports Sifo's latest results - only a 5,0% difference between the two blocks. In other words, last week's lead has been halved.

A "hung parliament", with neither of the blocks having a majority, seems a foregone conclusion now.

Will this matter if it comes to pass ? I thought Fredrik Reinfeldt already stated that if his alliance falls short of the S-MP-V alliance then he will not make a claim to form a government, which obviously requires support from SD.

Having S and MP alone stronger than the Alliance would help a lot in budget negotiations as the Left could "escape" through voting for their own proposal as long as SD votes for their own.

Also, this gap is close enough that the Alliance can actually pass the Red-Greens - 2.5% in a week is very, very doable, especially with momentum.

[Gustaf]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

Neither side is campaigning on tax cuts. Well, ok, the Social Democrats are pledging to cut taxes for seniors. But beyond that.

But how would "not raising taxes" affect you so badly? Given that there is basically no difference between the two sides I don't see how anyone could be massively hurt by any outcome?

[Gustaf]

Also, the Novus poll is hilarious. Probability that the opposition lead has actually been cut in half is now something like 75% IMO.

They'll still almost certainly get more votes than the Alliance but the ineptitude is hilarious.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yeah so this is really happening!

United Minds:

M: 21,0% (+0,1%)
C: 6,5% (+1,9%)
FP: 6,9% (+0,4%)
KD: 5,7%

S: 29,6% (-0,9%)
V: 7,2% (-0,1%)
MP: 7,5% (-1,3%)

SD: 11,1 (-0,3%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,6%)

Alliance: 40,0%
Mushrooms: 44,2%

[Tayya]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

Neither side is campaigning on tax cuts. Well, ok, the Social Democrats are pledging to cut taxes for seniors. But beyond that.

But how would "not raising taxes" affect you so badly? Given that there is basically no difference between the two sides I don't see how anyone could be massively hurt by any outcome?

I don't give a duck about what they promise now - an Alliance.victory means that the robber barons will keep reigning freely and that the rich will, in the end, get richer at the poors' back.

Re: United Minds: Told you so. God ducking pigheads in the opposition and duck you to all hipster idiots. I'm giving them SO MUCH HELL when this election is over.

[Gustaf]

I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.

How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

Neither side is campaigning on tax cuts. Well, ok, the Social Democrats are pledging to cut taxes for seniors. But beyond that.

But how would "not raising taxes" affect you so badly? Given that there is basically no difference between the two sides I don't see how anyone could be massively hurt by any outcome?

I don't give a duck about what they promise now - an Alliance.victory means that the robber barons will keep reigning freely and that the rich will, in the end, get richer at the poors' back.

Re: United Minds: Told you so. God ducking pigheads in the opposition and duck you to all hipster idiots. I'm giving them SO MUCH HELL when this election is over.

The poor have not been getting poorer under this government though. And the last few elections do indicate that they will rule basically as they say they will.

Besides, we weren't talking about reelecting the government, something I still don't see happening, but about there being some fun chaos in government. Since the Social Democrats basically pledge to not change anything major in current policy I can't see how some chaos would be much different.

Also, this campaign is entertaining in a meta way at this point.

[Lurker]

At this point I wouldn't be that surprised if the Red-Greens somehow lost. I wouldn't put it past them to blow a 4-5% lead in the final week.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happened?

[Franzl]

Has Sweden just decided to troll the Left the past couple of elections?

[Lurker]

I'm wondering the same thing. Doesn't seem to be any reason why the lead should have been cut in half, in only a matter of days.