SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

The disturbing thing is that I have no clue at all. The TV interviews, maybe? Or every center-right leaner deciding to pay attention simultaneously?

@Gustaf: To me - and this is obviously a subjective opinion - Sweden will fare worse as a country where the center-right is the norm instead of the center-left. Doesn't matter what policies they pursue, it's about the national consensus.

Though again, we probably lost that battle in the 90's. Sigh.

[Tender Branson]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

[Tayya]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

[Franzl]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

Pretty sure far more than 51% of Swedes are doing well.

[Gustaf]

Real income has gone up for basically everyone. Definitely for everyone with a job.

Tayya, I get that you may think Sweden does worse, that's fine. I obviously think Sweden will do worse if we get the left in, but given the tiny differences between the blocs I don't really see much impact on most of my life, nor on anyone else's. And, again, my hope is just for some fun chaos in parliament so I'm not really talking about the current government staying on.

As for why this is happening, I think it may be partly that people are realizing that the opposition isn't really a superior alternative even if the government is not to their liking. A lot of the low polling earlier was discontented Alliance voters saying they wouldn't vote or were unsure of whom to vote for. I'm guessing they're coming back. Also the Red-Green has not done great in the debates I think.

[Tayya]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

Pretty sure far more than 51% of Swedes are doing well.

My point is that a majority voting with their wallets isn't necessarily what a country needs, but sure.

@Gustav: Oh, I'm doing fine. My parents get a lot more cash to use thanks to income tax cuts, I'm healthy (excepting my cold I'm having), I'm renting a room that I can afford thanks to generous student benefits and loans and I can always go home to my parents.

But I'm afraid to death I'm never going to get a real job, 9-5; that I won't afford a house, and that there's no houses to live in. Meanwhile, tax money's going to crooks and robber barons (even if their actual negative effect on welfare quality is overstated) and our education system and our defense forces are still getting murdered like if they were dissenters and ISIS were in charge. No, the reds were just as useless, but these bums need to be kicked out and get back to reality. It's just time for them to go.

And I'm white, I'm a dude, I'm from a relatively wealthy household, I'm a lone child... what about the people who aren't?

I'm not exactly content with the opposition, but the Alliance wasn't exactly perfect in the beginning. And if they never start, they'll never learn and we'll get stuck with a government that, fundamentally, represents things I find awful, sometimes distasteful - yes, sometimes even hateful.

And I'm just so, so tired of this sh*t.

[Gustaf]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

Pretty sure far more than 51% of Swedes are doing well.

My point is that a majority voting with their wallets isn't necessarily what a country needs, but sure.

@Gustav: Oh, I'm doing fine. My parents get a lot more cash to use thanks to income tax cuts, I'm healthy (excepting my cold I'm having), I'm renting a room that I can afford thanks to generous student benefits and loans and I can always go home to my parents.

But I'm afraid to death I'm never going to get a real job, 9-5; that I won't afford a house, and that there's no houses to live in. Meanwhile, tax money's going to crooks and robber barons (even if their actual negative effect on welfare quality is overstated) and our education system and our defense forces are still getting murdered like if they were dissenters and ISIS were in charge. No, the reds were just as useless, but these bums need to be kicked out and get back to reality. It's just time for them to go.

And I'm white, I'm a dude, I'm from a relatively wealthy household, I'm a lone child... what about the people who aren't?

I'm not exactly content with the opposition, but the Alliance wasn't exactly perfect in the beginning. And if they never start, they'll never learn and we'll get stuck with a government that, fundamentally, represents things I find awful, sometimes distasteful - yes, sometimes even hateful.

And I'm just so, so tired of this sh*t.

Well, that's fair, but then it's more of a political opinion.

Let's not turn this into a political debate, but I would like to note that a government including MP or maybe even F! will probably be very effective in dismantling our armed forces.

[Tayya]

Eh, I've given up on defense - and I, for one, welcome our new Russian overlords...

[politicus]

Eh, I've given up on defense - and I, for one, welcome our new Russian overlords...

The founder of the Danish Progress Party Mogens Glistrup wanted to abolish the military and replace the Ministry of Defence with an answering machine saying "We surrender" in Russian. I suppose that's more or less Schyman's defence policy as well.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

People, lets not get ahead of ourselves. You're all talking like the Alliance were dominating in these polls. Let's not forget that the combined vote share for M+FP+KD+C is still at an all time low. The government had crushed through their floor, and is now climbing up to end up around their catastrophic 1994 result. Sure, if the trend continues unbroken for the last days, it might get interesting, but so far there's really no big change from what polls were showing last week, a hung parliament with a left-wing plurality.
 

[Tayya]

People, lets not get ahead of ourselves. You're all talking like the Alliance were dominating in these polls. Let's not forget that the combined vote share for M+FP+KD+C is still at an all time low. The government had crushed through their floor, and is now climbing up to end up around their catastrophic 1994 result. Sure, if the trend continues unbroken for the last days, it might get interesting, but so far there's really no big change from what polls were showing last week, a hung parliament with a left-wing plurality.
 

Going by the United Minds poll, the gov't needs to gain 2.1% from team Red-Green in order to be able to form a government. (I'm assuming the opposition parties won't let SD be a factor here.) Assuming that the shift is somewhat late, it might be even less. With positive momentum on their side, that's not that much for team Blue. I'd give them around a 50% chance to squeak by right now.

[ingemann]

Of course that also ignore whether SD are undercounted, if they get 1-1,5% extra, from which side will SD take those votes?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Theoretically, a 5-point lead with one week to go should be safe. I'm pretty sure that's what Nate Silver would say. Of course, that really means nothing.

[Gustaf]

The big if is whether there is sustained momentum. Tayya is being way too pessimistic though. I'd rate the Alliance's chances of actually catching up much lower.

[Gustaf]

New Novus poll, gap goes down to 3.6%...

M 21,8 (-0,6)
FP 7,7 (+1,2)
C 7,1 (+0,2)
KD 5,0 (-0,5)
S 29,8 (-0,8)
V 6,5 (-0,6)
MP 8,9 (+0,3)
SD 8,1 (-1,4)
FI 3,4 (+1,2)
M+FP+C+KD 41,6 (+0,3)
S+V+MP 45,2 (-1,1)

Game on. Also note that F!'s campaign is becoming a nailbiter. They're telling voters that they need to vote for them to get them over 4% and ensure a Red-Green government. If that works, good for the left. But it it fails and only brings F! to 3.5% or something...not so good.

[Lurker]

I thought Tayya seemed too pessimistic in his 50/50 estimate, but I agree with him now. This is a toss-up. Will be very interesting to see what the final SIFO poll show - it'll probably be within the margin of error.
As for F!, they're becoming an even bigger spoiler than previously thought. Last week we were saying that they'd prevent the Red-Greens from getting a total majority. Now the big question is whether they might prevent them from forming government at all.
F! getting over the 4% treshold is very unlikely, it seems to have a very low ceiling (not surprisingly for a "single issue" party that holds simillar views to that of an established party).

[jaichind]

Lets say that S-MP-V ends up very close to M-FP-C-KD along with a strong SD showing.  What are the chances of a grand coalition between S-MP and some combination of M-FP-C-KD to keep out V and SD? Or has S and M ruled that out already.

[Lurker]

Lets say that S-MP-V ends up very close to M-FP-C-KD along with a strong SD showing.  What are the chances of a grand coalition between S-MP and some combination of M-FP-C-KD to keep out V and SD? Or has S and M ruled that out already.

An extremely small chance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

[politicus]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

Its a lot easier just to lower the threshold. 4-5% is simply too high, if you use 2% as we do in Denmark the problem is virtually non-existent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

Its a lot easier just to lower the threshold. 4-5% is simply too high, if you use 2% as we do in Denmark the problem is virtually non-existent.

I could certainly understand why other countries wouldn't want to end up with the level of parliamentary fragmentation you have in Denmark (or at least that you had in the 70s-80s).

I agree that 5% is too high, but IMO 3 or 4% is about right.

[politicus]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

Its a lot easier just to lower the threshold. 4-5% is simply too high, if you use 2% as we do in Denmark the problem is virtually non-existent.

I could certainly understand why other countries wouldn't want to end up with the level of parliamentary fragmentation you have in Denmark (or at least that you had in the 70s-80s).

I agree that 5% is too high, but IMO 3 or 4% is about right.

In a European context: Since the far left is more likely to create splinter parties than the far right all a 4% threshold does compared to a 2% is to make it harder for the left to obtain power than the right, which isn't very democratic.

Once in a while a small centrist party is squeezed out, but that hardly makes it easier to form a stable government.

In countries with lots of ethnic or sectarian fragmentation a higher threshold is more sensible.

[Gustaf]

New SIFO poll shows increasing gap though. I think the Left is getting away with this election after all.

[politicus]

I think the Left is getting away with this election after all.

Bastards...

[jaichind]

New SIFO poll shows increasing gap though. I think the Left is getting away with this election after all.

But it seems not to make that big of a difference as the gap between M-FP-C-KD (41.3%) and S-MP-V (47.5%) is still less than SD (8.9%).  So it seems that either way you will have an minority government.