SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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  SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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Author Topic: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD  (Read 96640 times)
The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #625 on: September 10, 2014, 06:37:27 PM »
« edited: September 10, 2014, 06:54:41 PM by The Lord Marbury »

So TV4 held their question time of the opposition party leaders tonight, which offered no news to speak of just like yesterday which featured the Alliance. Same old lines we've been hearing for weeks now.

What it did do was offer Löfven a chance to show off his jujutsu skills on one of TV4s more annoying tv hosts.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #626 on: September 11, 2014, 06:56:10 AM »

The Social Democrats blame their bad poll numbers on people watching football. Lol. Roll Eyes

http://www.dn.se/valet-2014/zlatan-bakom-daliga-s-siffror/

(I know, I'm being a little unfair to the poor guys...)
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jaichind
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« Reply #627 on: September 11, 2014, 07:07:25 AM »

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #628 on: September 11, 2014, 09:40:35 AM »

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se. Tongue
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #629 on: September 11, 2014, 11:28:34 AM »

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se. Tongue

Yep svt.se could work. The election authority's site (in Swedish will publish its result here on election night so it could certainly be worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #630 on: September 11, 2014, 12:35:29 PM »

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se. Tongue

Yep svt.se could work. The election authority's site (in Swedish will publish its result here on election night so it could certainly be worth keeping an eye on.
http://www.val.se/val/val2014/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

What he said.

SVT will release an exit poll at 8 pm, and start showing reported results around 9 pm, and update as more results come in.

The election authority site will publish every precinct result as soon as they are reporte and update throughout the night as results come in.   
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #631 on: September 11, 2014, 12:38:44 PM »

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

Great.

That means we have 2 hours to follow the German state election coverage in Brandenburg and Thüringen, where the polls close at 6pm, before switching to Sweden's election coverage ... Wink
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jaichind
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« Reply #632 on: September 11, 2014, 01:12:31 PM »

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

Great.

That means we have 2 hours to follow the German state election coverage in Brandenburg and Thüringen, where the polls close at 6pm, before switching to Sweden's election coverage ... Wink

My thoughts exactly.
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jaichind
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« Reply #633 on: September 11, 2014, 01:55:30 PM »

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #634 on: September 11, 2014, 02:10:02 PM »


It's happening?
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #635 on: September 11, 2014, 02:29:00 PM »

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

I think that one is a few days old actually, and YouGov tends to be less trustworthy from other polls in my experience.

You can also take a look at: http://bottenada.se/ which seems to be a Swedish version of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight that has taken all recent polls into its consideration.
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jaichind
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« Reply #636 on: September 11, 2014, 03:23:09 PM »

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

I think that one is a few days old actually, and YouGov tends to be less trustworthy from other polls in my experience.

You can also take a look at: http://bottenada.se/ which seems to be a Swedish version of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight that has taken all recent polls into its consideration.

Well, if the poll was for 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10 then it cannot be that old.  But thanks for the site.
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The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #637 on: September 11, 2014, 03:28:26 PM »

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

I think that one is a few days old actually, and YouGov tends to be less trustworthy from other polls in my experience.

You can also take a look at: http://bottenada.se/ which seems to be a Swedish version of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight that has taken all recent polls into its consideration.

Well, if the poll was for 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10 then it cannot be that old.  But thanks for the site.

Huh, I guess I mixed it up with the poll released a couple of days of then. Though I stand by that YouGov generally have more unreliable polls.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #638 on: September 11, 2014, 05:28:07 PM »



According to this graph, everyone are leaving Moderaterna since last election. However, different age groups are leaving for different parties:

18-29 y.o.: leaving to Feministiskt Initiativ
30-44: leaving to Miljøpartiet
45-59: leaving to Sverigedemokraterna
60+: leaving to Sosialdemokraterna

Pretty interesting that the electorate is so torn apart in their choices. Tongue

Most revealing though is probably the mass exodus of the young voters. In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties. In this election however, they look like they will be supporting the Red Green parties by about a 21% margin, and that is even while not including their most favourite party, F!. Cheesy Only 28% of the youngest voters say they will vote for one of the four governing parties. All four left wing parties are registering enormous influxes of young voters. Here's how much each left wing party has grown among young voters since last election:

F!: +10.4%
Sosialdemokraterna: +4.7%
Miljøpartiet: +4.4%
Vänsterpartiet: +3.0%

Also notice that the youngest voters are leaving Sverigedemokraterna behind, despite them looking posed to become the big winners of this election. SD has actually lost 3.9% support among the youngest electorate if we are to believe this graphic, which shows the average of the last three polls from one institute.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #639 on: September 11, 2014, 05:47:33 PM »

In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #640 on: September 11, 2014, 06:11:29 PM »

In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.

OK, though the article said the Alliance had almost a 10% margin in Ipsos' three last polls before last election. Tongue
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #641 on: September 11, 2014, 06:44:13 PM »

In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.

OK, though the article said the Alliance had almost a 10% margin in Ipsos' three last polls before last election. Tongue

Yes I read that as well, but the article is incorrect. (not that surprising considering it's DN)

The VALU exit poll from 2010 showed 18-29-year-old went to the left by a 10 point margin. It might be possible the Alliance won youths in 2006, but in 2010 they most certainly didn't.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #642 on: September 11, 2014, 06:55:16 PM »

As to show I'm not pulling this out of thin air:

http://pejl.svt.se/visualisering/politik/partisympatier-over-tid/#party=Alla+partier&indicator=_1829

As you can see, in the autumn of 2010 the age group 18-29 aligned as follows:

Left: 51% (S: 26,3% MP: 17,8% V: 6,9%)
Right: 40,7% (M: 29,0% C: 3,3% FP: 6,2% KD: 2,2%)
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #643 on: September 11, 2014, 11:52:18 PM »

Btw, do you have any exit poll numbers for young voters and their support for SD and F! in 2010? Since SD is losing 4% support in this age group, they must have done tremendously well with them last time. Which is natural, as most trends start with the young (and urban) as well. We saw the same thing with Frp in Norway. At first, they were mostly an Oslo party with young (mostly male) voters. Today, Oslo is actually the region where they do worst, and they're no longer all that popular with young voters, especially not in Oslo, but rather with the middle aged. The party has gone from being extremely urban to today being favoured by (more) rural voters.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #644 on: September 12, 2014, 05:44:47 AM »

Btw, do you have any exit poll numbers for young voters and their support for SD and F! in 2010?

Unfortunately it's no longer possible to view the results from the exit poll on SVT's website, and I can't access the files on the Gothenburg University website, but if I don't remember completely incorrectly SD's support among the 18-29 age group was 7-8% while others had 2-3% (others include both Fi and the Pirates, both stronger among the young than the general public.) 

   
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #645 on: September 12, 2014, 06:24:16 AM »

At this point, I think lending votes to get FI over the threshold might actually be the best strategy for the left. Risky, but worth the try.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #646 on: September 12, 2014, 06:29:51 AM »

At this point, I think lending votes to get FI over the threshold might actually be the best strategy for the left. Risky, but worth the try.

Definitely. F! has been polling at around 3.3 to 4% on a few polls lately, including the latest one released today by United Minds, which saw the red green parties increase their lead somewhat over the Alliance.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #647 on: September 12, 2014, 06:52:35 AM »

My prediction:

29.6% S
  9.5% MP
  6.8% V

45.9% Red-Greens

21.8% M
  6.6% FP
  6.0% C
  4.8% KD

39.2% Alliance

11.6% SD
  2.5% FI
  0.8% Others

Turnout: 81.8% (-2.8%)
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Zanas
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« Reply #648 on: September 12, 2014, 06:56:46 AM »

Young Swedes (very relatively) restore my faith in humanity.

What's F!'s position on government participation again ? Would it look like S-MP-V-FI ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #649 on: September 12, 2014, 07:47:23 AM »

Swedish Opposition Extends Lead in United Minds Election Poll

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 45.5% of voters vs 44.2% in election poll published on Sept. 9, according to Aftonbladet/United Minds.

* Swedish ruling coalition would get 39.5% of votes vs 40.0%

* Gap between blocs widens to 6 ppts vs 4.2 ppts

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt backed by 22.8% vs 21.0%, Liberal Party by 5.5% vs 6.9%, Centre Party by 5.8% vs 6.5% and Christian Democrats by 5.4% vs 5.7%
Opposition Social Democrats supported by 31.1% vs 29.6%, Green Party by 8.7% vs 7.5% and Left Party by 5.7% vs 7.2%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by 11.1% vs 11.1%; Feminist Initiative by 3.3% vs 3.4%

* United Minds polled 1,343 people Sept. 8-11 on behalf of Aftonbladet; number of undecided voters was 11.5% vs 15.0%
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