SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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  SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD
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Author Topic: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD  (Read 96656 times)
The Lord Marbury
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« Reply #650 on: September 12, 2014, 08:34:05 AM »

Young Swedes (very relatively) restore my faith in humanity.

What's F!'s position on government participation again ? Would it look like S-MP-V-FI ?

They seem to be pretty ambivalent on the idea of full on joining the government, their spokespersons have said that it has its pros and cons and that there are other ways of working with a red-green government. Pretty much what's expected to come from an anti-establishment party which FI in many ways is.
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Lurker
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« Reply #651 on: September 12, 2014, 10:48:43 AM »
« Edited: September 12, 2014, 11:40:51 AM by Lurker »

So, I read about the new "controversy" that has caused some fuss in the media, and led to Stefan Löfven being portrayed as a bully by the centre-right (or something).

Then I saw a clip of the incident: http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/valaret2014/article19521250.ab (the second video on this page).
LOL. If anyone is being aggresive here, it's the leader of the Centre Party. What a ridiculous story.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #652 on: September 12, 2014, 12:28:34 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2014, 12:34:49 PM by eric82oslo »

According to the Aftonbladet election test, I'm politically almost exactly where Miljøpartiet is. Tongue [On the SVT test, I got F! though - I generally liked SVT's questions much more] Surprisingly, Sosialdemokraterna comes 2nd closest. Then F!, Vänsterpartiet - which both basically have the same views it seems. Unsurprisingly, I'm furthest away from SD, then Kristdemokraterna.

They also scored me up with points for each party. It turned out like this:

1) 17 points for Miljøpartiet, F! & Vänsterpartiet
4) 13 points for Folkpartiet & Sossarna
6) 11 Points for Centerpartiet
7) 9 points for Moderaterna
8 ) 7 points for Kristdemokraterna
9) 5 points for Sverigedemokraterna

If we are to believe the Aftonbladet scale, we can group the Swedish political parties into four distinct groups, who all are pretty far away from each other:

1) F! & Vänsterpartiet (progressive left)
2) Folkpartiet, Moderaterna, Centerpartiet & Kristdemokraterna (right, but neither progressive nor conservative - only KD is somewhat conservative, Centerpartiet the least conservative)
3) Miljøpartiet & Sossarna (progressive center, though Miljøpartiet is more progressive)
4) Sverigedemokraterna (center, yet extremely conservative)
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jaichind
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« Reply #653 on: September 12, 2014, 07:24:21 PM »

* Sweden’s opposition parties would get 45.7% of votes if an election was held today vs 47.5% in poll
published on Sept. 10, according to Svenska Dagbladet/Sifo.

* Backing for four-party government was 40.0% vs 41.3%

* Gap between two blocs narrows to 5.7 ppts vs 6.2 ppts

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt backed by 21.2% vs 22.6%, Liberal Party by 6.8% vs 7.2%, Center Party by 6.5% vs 7.0% and Christian Democrats by 5.5% vs 4.5%
Opposition Social Democrats supported by 31.1% vs 30.4%, Green Party by 8.3% vs 10.3% and Left Party by 6.3% vs 6.8%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by 10.3% vs 8.9%; Feminist Initiative by 3.0% vs 1.6%

* Poll surveyed 2,445 Swedes Sept. 10-11
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jaichind
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« Reply #654 on: September 12, 2014, 09:30:38 PM »

Seems like the consensus of all the recent polls are

S+MP+V        > M+FP+C+KD
S+MP            < M+FP+C+KD
S+MP+V        < M+FP+C+KD + SD
S+MP+V+FI   > M+FP+C+KD + SD
FI                  < 4

I wonder if at the grassroots level S and MP are pushing pushing FI/S and FI/MP marginal voters to note vote FI so their vote is not wasted and risk S+MP+V failing to get a majority.  And at the same time FI are pushing the same marginal voters to vote FI to get it over 4% and ensure a center-left government.  If both are taking place then most likely they will cancel each other out and FI will fail to cross 4% by a small margin.  One way out is for S and MP to ask such votes to vote FI which from a game theory point of view makes sense on the short run but hurts S and MP on the long as they enabled a long term certer-left rival.  I wonder which way S and MP strategists will go?
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Lurker
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« Reply #655 on: September 13, 2014, 05:56:56 AM »

Seems like the consensus of all the recent polls are

S+MP+V        > M+FP+C+KD
S+MP            < M+FP+C+KD
S+MP+V        < M+FP+C+KD + SD
S+MP+V+FI   > M+FP+C+KD + SD
FI                  < 4

I wonder if at the grassroots level S and MP are pushing pushing FI/S and FI/MP marginal voters to note vote FI so their vote is not wasted and risk S+MP+V failing to get a majority.  And at the same time FI are pushing the same marginal voters to vote FI to get it over 4% and ensure a center-left government.  If both are taking place then most likely they will cancel each other out and FI will fail to cross 4% by a small margin.  One way out is for S and MP to ask such votes to vote FI which from a game theory point of view makes sense on the short run but hurts S and MP on the long as they enabled a long term certer-left rival.  I wonder which way S and MP strategists will go?

A problem with this is that the Red-Greens + FI is  not bigger than the government + Sweden Democrats in most polls. The average currently shows the latter combination as gaining a larger percentage (though this is within the margin of error). Your point about enabling a long-term centre-left "rival" is an interesting one.

I'll post the full polling average below.
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Lurker
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« Reply #656 on: September 13, 2014, 06:05:47 AM »

Polling average with one day to go (http://svenskopinion.nu/).

Social-Democrats - 30,0%

Miljöpartet - 9,1%

Vp - 6,7%

Red-Greens: 45,8%


Moderaterna: 21,8%

Center Party: 6,2%

Fp:                6,2%

Kd:           5,2%   

Alliance: 39,3%


Sweden Democrats: 10,6%

FI: 3,3%
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Gustaf
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« Reply #657 on: September 13, 2014, 06:36:43 AM »

Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close. Tongue
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Lurker
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« Reply #658 on: September 13, 2014, 06:42:46 AM »

Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close. Tongue

Yeah, I agree on that. Btw, do you think there's any chance that Reinfeldt attempts to stay on as PM, if the result is what we expect?
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jaichind
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« Reply #659 on: September 13, 2014, 08:04:49 AM »

Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close. Tongue

Yeah, I agree on that. Btw, do you think there's any chance that Reinfeldt attempts to stay on as PM, if the result is what we expect?

I thought Reinfeldt already stated that if his alliance falls behind S-MP-V then he will not try to form a minority government.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #660 on: September 13, 2014, 08:10:44 AM »

Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close. Tongue

Yeah, I agree on that. Btw, do you think there's any chance that Reinfeldt attempts to stay on as PM, if the result is what we expect?

Not really. Apart from the fact that he explicitly stated that he'd resign the numbers wouldn't really be there. He might try to topple the budget which could pave the way for a return though!
 
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Franzl
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« Reply #661 on: September 13, 2014, 12:37:19 PM »

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.
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jaichind
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« Reply #662 on: September 13, 2014, 12:45:29 PM »

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #663 on: September 13, 2014, 02:34:54 PM »

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%. Wink
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Lurker
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« Reply #664 on: September 13, 2014, 03:11:44 PM »

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%. Wink

It could happen of course, but unlike the crap British polling industry, Sweden's has actually tended to be pretty good. So I'd be more surprised if your pollsters screwed up that much. Tongue
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #665 on: September 13, 2014, 03:20:19 PM »

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening Smiley

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

Well, one could imagine a sort of United Kingdom 1992 situation, where polls showed Labour leading, up until election day although with the gap declining, just to have the Conservatives snatch the victory after all, but that is of course a pretty unlikely scenario, but not out of the realm of possibilities.

It should be noted that in the poll of the day (SKOP) was the gap between the blocs only 3%. Wink

It could happen of course, but unlike the crap British polling industry, Sweden's has actually tended to be pretty good. So I'd be more surprised if your pollsters screwed up that much. Tongue

Yeah I don't think they've screwed up either, and would be shocked if we didn't get a somewhat predictable result. I just wanted to point to the possibility.  Smiley
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Tayya
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« Reply #666 on: September 13, 2014, 03:24:01 PM »

Cheese, you're paying for my treatment if that happens. Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #667 on: September 13, 2014, 03:25:31 PM »

This seems to be some poll aggregation system. 

Swedish Govt Narrows Gap With Opposition in Poll: Ekot/Novus

*Opposition parties would get 46.1% of votes if election was held today vs 46.8% in poll published Sept. 7, according to Ekot/Novus poll of polls.

* Backing for four-party government increased to 40.2% vs 39%

* Moderate Party of PM Fredrik Reinfeldt: 22% vs 22.2%

* Liberal Party 6.8% vs 6.3%

* Center Party 6.3% vs 5.5%

* Christian Democrats 5.1% vs 5.0%

* Opposition Social Democrats supported by 30.3% vs 30%

* Green Party 9.2% vs 9.7%

* Left Party 6.6% vs 7.1%

* Sweden Democrats, with whom neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by 9.6% vs 10.3%

* Feminist Initiative 3.1% vs 2.6%

* Ekot/Novus compiled results of polls by Demoskop, Novus, Sifo, Skop and Synovate from Sept. 8-13
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #668 on: September 13, 2014, 03:33:55 PM »

Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #669 on: September 13, 2014, 03:35:26 PM »

Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!

Sure, we need them to end up just around 3,9%. Wink
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Tayya
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« Reply #670 on: September 13, 2014, 03:38:52 PM »

According to tabloid Aftonbladet, FI leader Gudrun Schyman will address the crowd at tonight's Pharrell Williams concert in Stockholm, invited by Williams himself according to Schyman.

Game changer or not, the woman knows how to do politics. You have to give her that.
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jaichind
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« Reply #671 on: September 13, 2014, 03:39:00 PM »

Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!

As I mentioned earlier, S and MP would see the establishment of FI as a party that can win more than 4% of the vote as a long term threat.  At best it is another party to share the spoils of office with and at worse a FI that is part of a center-coalition could drive some S or even MP voter away and toward the center-right alliance.  The death of political parties is usually due to the rise of opponents from the opposite side of the political spectrum but like minded parties.  The Whig Party of the USA did not die as a result of the domination of the Democrats of the 1840s and 1850s but from the rise of the Republicans.  The death of the centrist New Frontier Party in Japan in the late 1990s was not due to the resurgence of the LDP but from the rise of another centrist DPJ.
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jaichind
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« Reply #672 on: September 13, 2014, 03:41:28 PM »

Would this "scandal" of SD leader Åkesson and gambling drive SD votes back to the ruling alliance?  Looks like not unless they can prove that he somehow was gambling with money that he got through illegitimate means. 
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ingemann
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« Reply #673 on: September 13, 2014, 04:06:30 PM »

Would this "scandal" of SD leader Åkesson and gambling drive SD votes back to the ruling alliance?  Looks like not unless they can prove that he somehow was gambling with money that he got through illegitimate means. 

We can never know it before the election, but I suspect that this either not have any effect or a positive effects for SD. People are not idiots and they don't like being manipulated, and this kind of "news" so close to a election, often result in a backlash, of course if they prove that it was not his own money, all bet are off, but let be honest if they could prove that, it would be out now. But the fact that a politician, who haven't set himself up on economic issue and is unlikely to have any influence on them, gamble a lot of his own money away, are unlikely to have any great effect on SDs election results.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #674 on: September 14, 2014, 12:45:23 AM »

Final prediction:

M: 23,1%
C: 6,1%
FP: 6,6%
KD: 4,8%

S: 29,8%
V: 6,5%
MP: 8,3%

SD: 10,6%
FI: 3,3%

Alliance: 40,6%
(S)(v)a(mp): 44,6%


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