SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tender Branson]

Good morning !

A question for the Swedes before I make my final prediction:

On the Swedish Wikipedia, it says "I riksdagsvalet 2014 är 7.576.875 personer röstberättigade." - which, if my Swedish is not totally wrong, means: "In the federal election 2014, 7.576.875 people are eligible to vote".

But if you click on the link, you are directed to val.se and the page there says that "only" 7.328.202 people are eligible to vote.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/alkon/R/rike/alderkon.html#rostberalkon

Which figure is correct ?

...

And: What is this Sweden Democrats scandal that you guys talked about earlier ?

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

Also, I guess Förtidsrösta means "early voting" ?

If yes, 2.479.727 people have already voted early vs. 2.287.373 in 2010.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/rostmottagning/fortidsrostning/rike/index.html

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction:

29.4% S
  9.0% MP
  6.6% V

45.0% Red-Greens-Left

22.5% M
  6.4% FP
  6.3% C
  4.8% KD

40.0% Alliance

11.0% SD
  3.2% FI
  0.8% Others

Turnout: 84.0% (-0.6%)

[Tayya]

Förtidsrösta = Early voting, yes.

With regards to the numbers - Wikipedia has accidentally used the number of eligible voters in the County Council elections. For local elections, EU/EES citizens that reside in Sweden as well as non-EU/EES citizens that have resided in Sweden for at least three years are also eligible to vote. The lower number is correct for the Riksdag.

[Tender Branson]

Förtidsrösta = Early voting, yes.

With regards to the numbers - Wikipedia has accidentally used the number of eligible voters in the County Council elections. For local elections, EU/EES citizens that reside in Sweden as well as non-EU/EES citizens that have resided in Sweden for at least three years are also eligible to vote. The lower number is correct for the Riksdag.

Thx, that explains it.

And: What is this Sweden Democrats scandal that you guys talked about earlier ?

[politicus]

Jimmie boy has a gambling problem:

http://www.thelocal.se/20140912/sweden-democrats-in-new-secret-film-scandal

"On Friday afternoon, Sveriges Radio (SR) revealed that (SD leader) Jimmie Åkesson had spent upwards of 500,000 kronor ($70,000) this year alone on online betting.

A gambling expert told the channel that such a habit was "out of control". The sum is more than the politician would have earned all year, after tax, reported SR.
 
Åkesson said that the large sums he spent were simply the winnings from previous bets, adding that he gambled "for fun" with his partner."

[Tender Branson]

Jimmie boy has a gambling problem:

http://www.thelocal.se/20140912/sweden-democrats-in-new-secret-film-scandal

Ah thx.

But will this hurt them ?

And stuff like this might even help them with their base voters:

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I would applaud the Swedish voters though, if the result of SD turns out to be lower than what polls show.

[Tender Branson]

Also, I guess Förtidsrösta means "early voting" ?

If yes, 2.479.727 people have already voted early vs. 2.287.373 in 2010.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/rostmottagning/fortidsrostning/rike/index.html

Based on these numbers, 34% of those eligible have already voted early vs. 32% in 2010.

I expect overall turnout to stay relatively high (82-86%), mostly because A) the gap is narrowing between the 2 blocs, which could drive additional people to the polls who think their vote will have an impact and B) because Sweden also has regional and local elections today.

[politicus]

Generally the way to go for Scandinavian right wing populists has been to weed out outright racists and try to look respectable. Our DPP has been very consistent in banning local members who are caught saying or doing racist stuff. SD are trying hard to become more respectable, but are still in a more early stage of this respectability process compared to PP in Norway, and DPP.

The actual racist base is rather small in Nordic countries, so rightwing populists need to breach out to other groups where respectability is important and outright "primitive" racism frowned upon (even if they still hold bigoted views).

Massive online gambling is also not something you want to be associated with if you are trying to look respectable.

So, yes I think it will hurt them, the question is how much.

[Tender Branson]

So, only 2 people (Swedish Cheese & me) try a prediction ?

Lame.

[politicus]

My FINAL prediction:

30.3% S
  10.0% MP
  6.5% V

46.8% Red-Greens-Left

21.3% M
  6.6% FP
  6.0% C
  4.7% KD

38.6% Alliance

10.0% SD
  4.2% FI
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 86.1% (+1.5%)

[Cassius]

Prediction for the lols...

S - 28.8%
MP - 9.5%
V - 5.9%

44.2% for Red-Green-Left

M - 23.5%
FP - 7.0%
C - 5.5%
KD - 5.3%

41.3% for the Alliance

SD - 10.2%
FI - 3.5%
Other - 0.8%

[Tender Branson]

Could you people please use orange instead of yellow ?

Yellow is unreadable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I won't make a prediction, for fear of being disappointed. Let's just say I'll consider it a success if FI gets above the threshold and the four left-wing parties together have a majority.

[MaxQue]

At which hour polls close and at which hour shall we have a good idea of the result?

[politicus]

At which hour polls close and at which hour shall we have a good idea of the result?

They close at 20 central European time and Swedish exit polls are normally excellent, so right away (which is actually boring).

[eric82oslo]

My FINAL prediction:

29.3% S
  8.9% MP
  6.3% V
  4.1% FI

48.6% Red-Greens-Left

21.4% M
  6.4% FP
  6.3% C
  5.3% KD

39.4% Alliance

10.9% SD
  1.1% Others

Turnout: 81.5% (-3.1%)

[eric82oslo]

I won't make a prediction, for fear of being disappointed. Let's just say I'll consider it a success if FI gets above the threshold and the four left-wing parties together have a majority.

Miljøpartiet and FI did much better than anyone expected at the EU election, so I wouldn't been surprised if they outdo expectations this time again. Although since the turnout will be much higher, the magnitude won't be that big. Also, they will mostly steal votes for S and V, which means that their percentage will probably be somewhat lower than most polls are showing. Moderaterna did a terrible EU election, perhaps they will do worse than expected this time around as well. The only party to have a massive increase (with about 2%) during the election cycle has been the Centerpartiet, so don't be surprised if they will do really well. I guess the reason for this is because they have one of the few leaders with actual charisma. KD has also increased during the last month, but less so (more like 1% in total).

[eric82oslo]

At which hour polls close and at which hour shall we have a good idea of the result?

They close at 20 central European time and Swedish exit polls are normally excellent, so right away (which is actually boring).

I guess you're right. Norwegian exit polls have been all over the place during the last few elections. Often giving a party 2-3% more or less than they actually end up getting, which with the magnitude of exit poll respondents (something like 5000 I guess) is quite an impressive error.

[jaichind]

Sorry for late prediction since I just got up

M: 22.6%
C:   6%
FP:  6.5%
KD: 5%

Tot:  40.1%

S:   30%
V:    6.5%
MP:  8.5%

Tot:  45%

SD: 10.6%
FI:    3.6%

[Tender Branson]

Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

[Lurker]

Early exit poll

Red-Greens: 44,9%

Alliance: 39,3%

Sweden Democrats: 10,4%

Feminist Initiative: 3,7%

If this is correct, there will not be a left-wing majority even if FI makes the treshold. SD to hold the balance of power.

Edit by El Caudillo: exit poll leak

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

You asked this question four years ago as well Tender, I'm disappointed you do not remember.

The answer is yes and yes. People who want to keep their vote secret bring their own ballot papers or take one from every party.

Isn't this a terrible waste of paper you might ask. Yes it is, but Sweden has a very big forestry and paper industry so see it as one big subsidy every four years.

[Tender Branson]

Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

You asked this question four years ago as well Tender, I'm disappointed you do not remember.

The answer is yes and yes. People who want to keep their vote secret bring their own ballot papers or take one from every party.

Isn't this a terrible waste of paper you might ask. Yes it is, but Sweden has a very big forestry and paper industry so see it as one big subsidy every four years.

I cannot remember everything ...

But thx for the answer. Yes, terrible waste of papers indeed.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it true that in Sweden there are piles of ballots in the polling station for each party and you can draw a ballot for the party you are voting for ?

So, basically everyone knows for which party you are voting, depending which ballot you take (unless you take ballots for every party with you into the voting booth) ?

You asked this question four years ago as well Tender, I'm disappointed you do not remember.

The answer is yes and yes. People who want to keep their vote secret bring their own ballot papers or take one from every party.

Isn't this a terrible waste of paper you might ask. Yes it is, but Sweden has a very big forestry and paper industry so see it as one big subsidy every four years.

A tad too North Korean maybe.