SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[eric82oslo]

"In the European Parliament election, 2009, the party improved its result, getting 2.2%. This was not enough to get a seat in the European Parliament. It has been speculated that one reason for the improvement was the 1,000,000 Swedish kronor donation made to the party by former ABBA member Benny Andersson."

[eric82oslo]

Chilling poll numbers from Demoskop today.

M - 18,5%
C - 5,3%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 4,8%

S - 29,1%
V - 8,1%
MP - 13,0%

SD - 10,0%
FI - 4,4%    

I'm starting to really enjoy Swedish politics lately. I can hardly believe that the ultra left parties (V+FI+MP) together have an amazing 25.5% - in comparison Norway's 3 ultra left parties (SV+Rødt+MDG) only obtained about 8% in our 2013 parliamentary election. You have more than three times the number of left voters than we do!

In comparison, in Norway, the standing between the different parties has hardly changed for the past 8 or 10 years. Except with Miljøpartiet De Grønne starting to get some attention and Sosialistisk Venstreparti doing worse than ever and nearly falling out of the parliament altogether. At least now Jens is out, which makes everything a little bit more exciting and Frp in government has so far been a drag on them - they have hardly done worse since the 90ies I think, hovering around "just" 11-12% lately.

[eric82oslo]

I don't think you can really call the Swedish Greens 'ultra left'.

Well, it's ultra left on environment at least.

And in Norway, a prominent member, former minister of the Socialist Left Party has actually proposed to merge his party with The Green Party.

[eric82oslo]

Let's not fool ourselves. All green parties in the entire world are by nature left-leaning. There's pretty much nothing less libertarian in terms of economics than an ultra-green party.

[eric82oslo]

Fair enough.

I've heard that the Colombian Green Party is the second most left-wing one after the FARC-supported one. At least that's what my friend said who's ultra left and supporting the FARC party.

[eric82oslo]

Mine:

FI - 82% - Feministiskt initiativ
MP - 73% - Miljöpartiet
V - 70% - Vänsterpartiet
PP - 68% - Piratpartiet
FP - 68% - Folkpartiet
S - 63% - Socialdemokraterna
C - 55% - Centerpartiet
M - 52% - Moderaterna
KD - 48% - Kristdemokraterna
SD - 20% - Sverigedemokraterna


Not many surprises there for me. The biggest surprise was that I agree with SD as much as 20% of the time! And maybe that I only agree with FI 82% of the time.

[eric82oslo]

The hate against FI in this thread is just incredible. If there's one thing Europe clearly lacks - or the world for that matter - it's having more parties like FI.

Now onto something completely different. I've calculated the average of the 11 polls done so far in August, as published by Wikipedia. Those include 4 from Sifo, 3 from United Minds, 2 from Ipsos and one each from Demoskop & YouGov.

The August average of Swedish polls show this ranking:

1. Sosialdemokraterna - 30.4%
2. Moderaterna - 22.3%
3. Sverigedemokraterna – 10.4%
4. Miljøpartiet – 10.3%
5. Vänsterpartiet – 6.9%
6. Folkpartiet – 6.5%
7. Centerpartiet – 4.9%
8. Kristdemokraterna – 4.3%
9. Feministisk Initiativ – 2.9%

Which gives us these constellations.

S + MP + V = 47.6%
S + MP + V + FI = 50.5%
M + F + C + K = 38%

In other words, the red-green side is currently leading by between 9.6% and 12.5%. It'll be interesting to see which party will end up as the third most popular party in the end.

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.

[eric82oslo]

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Feminism is an ideology btw, just like liberalism and conservative, it is not an issue. Anyone who thinks they are a one issue party knows absolutely nothing about them. Talk about ignorance. They have bold stances on the military, environment and a whole range of other issues.

[eric82oslo]

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

[eric82oslo]

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

I guess we have diamentrically different views on artists then. For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society. Without artists, there would be no John Lennon or Imagine for instance, just to take the most famous of a trillion examples. Artists dear to dream about the future in a way that other people even don't have the luxury to do (not enough time) or don't have the mental capacity to do.

[eric82oslo]

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

I guess we have diamentrically different views on artists then. For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society. Without artists, there would be no John Lennon or Imagine for instance, just to take the most famous of a trillion examples. Artists dear to dream about the future in a way that other people even don't have the luxury to do (not enough time) or don't have the mental capacity to do.

Well I guess that's a disagreement, I personal think that experience and knowledge give you political insight, and I'm very grateful that it was not artists like Tom Clancy which decided the American anti-terror policies.

No idea who Tom Clancy is to be honest. Apparently he's not a big name internationally.

[eric82oslo]

I mind them (FI), they are a single issue party, which place itself in niche, which are already full. Single issue parties are almost always bad news (through sometimes they're sadly necessary) and when their issue are already embraced by other parties, they tend to be extremists of the worst kind, and the kind of people who votes for that kind of party are the most irritating selfrightious smug douches, you will ever meet.

Most Swedish artists - ABBA-Benny included - seem to be ready to vote for the party, so in that case most Swedish artists are irritating selfrightious smug extremist douches. If that's your opinion, you're entitled to one.

Love the argument, next you will surprise me with the facts that capitalists are greedy, bikers are violent and priests are religious.

Edit: ...and this was not a dig against the Swedes, as I don't see other countries artist as better.

I take it you don't particularily appreciate music or arts in its more wider form.

I appriciate much of it, I just don't think the ability to sing, play music, paint or write books, give you any greater political insight. I also think that it take a special kind of narcissism to seek the attention of being an artist, and if you're a successful artist you will spend years with few monetary needs, surrounded by yes men and brown noses. Which is never healthy for how ones political views develop (see Tom Clancy and Jan Guillou), no one develop smart thoughts if everyone keep agreeing with you and tell how right you are.

I guess we have diamentrically different views on artists then. For me they're the most intellectual, clear-sighted people there is, in sharp contrast to many other parts of society. Without artists, there would be no John Lennon or Imagine for instance, just to take the most famous of a trillion examples. Artists dear to dream about the future in a way that other people even don't have the luxury to do (not enough time) or don't have the mental capacity to do.

Well I guess that's a disagreement, I personal think that experience and knowledge give you political insight, and I'm very grateful that it was not artists like Tom Clancy which decided the American anti-terror policies.

No idea who Tom Clancy is to be honest. Apparently he's not a big name internationally.

...

...

Yes he is a big name internationally, a very big name internationally.

Now that I googled him, it turnes out that he isn't even a musician, which explains why I didn't know about him.

You can't really compare musicians and authors I think. On average, they're both radical and liberal, but I'd say that the average musician is far more radical and liberal than the average author. There are tons of moderate or conservative authors, but there are extremely few conservative musicians.

Those celebrities vividly supporting F! are almost exclusively musicians or actors, I don't even know if I've seen a single name of an author yet.

[eric82oslo]

It's an absurd discussion (an I fail to see the relevance of it at all), but I really doubt eric82's claim that a majority of Swedish artists are FI voters (or even potential ones).

Most poll's show them to have a ceiling of 3% or thereabouts. While Swedish artists certainly are more left-wing and likely to vote FI than most of the population, it seems crazy to think that a majority of them will vote for such a small party. Source, please!  

http://feministisktinitiativ.se/en-rost-fran-hjartat/

http://feministisktinitiativ.se/valskivan-f/

http://www.expressen.se/nyheter/benny-andersson-jag-sympatiserar-med-hennes-kamp/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0GP0cvftJ4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYLb887JDsI

[eric82oslo]

That does not prove your assertion at all though. Nobody doubts that the FI has far greater support among artists than among the general population (is that a good thing, btw?).

If you hate artists it's probably a bad thing. But then I'd have to ask you why you hate artists so much. According to me, the most crucial part of any society. What would a society be without entertainment, beauty/pleasure and intellectuals? Not much I presume, other than the paradise for a guy like Dick Cheney. Basically of any enemies of humanity.

[eric82oslo]

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.

Yes, well obviously. Which is another reason people vote for them, without actually knowing anything about their actual policies. I'm personally very much of the opinion however that one extreme doesn't excuse another. Stalin was the most anti-Hitler, didn't make Stalin into a good leader, now did it.

Churchill was obviously the anti-Hitler. Those not getting that one right obviously don't know much about history. Stalin's policies wasn't anything other than pro-Stalin. That's why he hated all other communists besides himself. That's why he executed so many of his nearest coworkers. Stalin was one of the worst terrorists in the history of humankind, and to claim that Stalin has anything in common with a modern liberal and radical equality party is ludicrous. Stalin would without a doubt have executed Lenin, Marx and Engels too if he got the chance.

[eric82oslo]

So this is why no one on this forum seems to take you seriously.

I didn't want to make a personal attack (least not towards the only active Norwegian in this place), but I have to agree on this. What a ridiculous hack.

Lol. Just because you're a conservative and I'm quite the contrary, you have to hate me.

I guess you have a problem with hating a lot of people in your society then, if you think I'm too extreme for your own liking. I'm not particularily extreme actually. I'm somewhere between F!, the world's green parties and the world's left parties + the world's liberal parties (in Norway Venstre, in Sweden Folkpartiet, in UK Liberal Democrats, even some parts of Libertarians agenda is extremely appealing to me), but I've never seriously considered voting for a semi-communist party as I'm appalled by communism's history as well as with it's present day rethoric (for instance reading Klassekampen is one of the worst experiences one can have, it has even less to do with common people's every day lives than some extreme right wing publications, and it's extremely poorly written as well in my opinion).

[eric82oslo]

So they're that kind of party, let's hope they don't come in.

So this is why no one on this forum seems to take you seriously.

It's news to me that noone takes me seriously. Where do you have that from?

I might not be to everyone's liking because I'm partisan, but so are at least 90% who write here, you included. I've never taken you very seriously either, as you're obviously a hack for the right wing Alliance.

[eric82oslo]

So this is why no one on this forum seems to take you seriously.

I didn't want to make a personal attack (least not towards the only active Norwegian in this place), but I have to agree on this. What a ridiculous hack.

Lol. Just because you're a conservative and I'm quite the contrary, you have to hate me.

I guess you have a problem with hating a lot of people in your society then, if you think I'm too extreme for your own liking. I'm not particularily extreme actually. I'm somewhere between F!, the world's green parties and the world's left parties + the world's liberal parties (in Norway Venstre, in Sweden Folkpartiet, in UK Liberal Democrats, even some parts of Libertarians agenda is extremely appealing to me), but I've never seriously considered voting for a semi-communist party as I'm appalled by communism's history as well with it's present day rethoric (for instance reading Klassekampen is one of the worst experiences one can have, it has even less to do with common people's every day lives than some extreme right wing publications, and it's extremely poorly written as well in my opinion).

Wrong on all counts. I don't "hate you", obviously (why would I?) - just think you appear to be a bit hackish a lot of the time (particularly when it comes to predictions about US politics.)

Also, I wouldn't call myself a conservative either, not sure where you get that impression.

What my predictions are for future elections are of course highly personal, so not sure why you would take such a degree of offence towards them.

Well conservative was a bit of a bold statement. My feeling is that you're circulating between Venstre and Høyre most of the time. Which isn't necessarily such a bad place to be, although I really hate Høyre's economic policies.

If you wondered why, check out these article for instance:

http://e24.no/makro-og-politikk/siv-og-erna-kunne-fjernet-formuesskatten-for-minst-435-000-nordmenn/23282589

http://e24.no/makro-og-politikk/victor-norman-kritiserer-regjeringens-skattepolitikk/23257958

When you prefer helping 852 extremely fortunate individuals rather than lowering the tax rates for more than 400,000 individuals, there's something very wrong with your priorities.

And it's commonly known by this point that Høyre, not Frp, is the party for the very rich elite at this point, so please don't put the blame at Siv Jensen, as her entire party would immediately unanimously disapprove. I hate Frp more than almost anything else, but at the issue of social justice they are at least somewhat right (compared to Høyre at least, which are the beasts in the closet).

[eric82oslo]

Btw, FI is basically the anti-SD party, even though Reinfeldt would very much like to have Moderaterna as the anti-SD party.

Yes, well obviously. Which is another reason people vote for them, without actually knowing anything about their actual policies. I'm personally very much of the opinion however that one extreme doesn't excuse another. Stalin was the most anti-Hitler, didn't make Stalin into a good leader, now did it.

Churchill was obviously the anti-Hitler. Those not getting that one right obviously don't know much about history. Stalin's policies wasn't anything other than pro-Stalin. That's why he hated all other communists besides himself. That's why he executed so many of his nearest coworkers. Stalin was one of the worst terrorists in the history of humankind, and to claim that Stalin has anything in common with a modern liberal and radical equality party is ludicrous. Stalin would without a doubt have executed Lenin, Marx and Engels too if he got the chance.

1) Communism and Fascism are clearly the two historical antagonists to each other, not Fascism and Conservatism, so don't you come here and try to call me out on my history knowledge.

Then how do you explain that Hitler and Stalin had a very solemn accord for a very long time on not to invade each other (until Hitler decided to invade Russia) while Churchill was literally appalled by how lenient Chamberlain had been towards Hitler and constantly giving him new concessions. Obviously Churchill hated the guts out of Hitler in a much stronger degree than the self-obsessed, narcissist, Muammar Gaddafi-like creature Stalin was.

[eric82oslo]

What my predictions are for future elections are of course highly personal, so not sure why you would take such a degree of offence towards them.

Well conservative was a bit of a bold statement. My feeling is that you're circulating between Venstre and Høyre most of the time. Which isn't necessarily such a bad place to be, although I really hate Høyre's economic policies.
[...]

I really think you're reading way too much into my statements. I don't think I ever felt "offended"  in any way about anything you have written.

As for my political allegiance in Norway, I would have some trouble placing myself, though Høyre at this time would not be an option for me for different reasons - the close cooperation with Frp being a primary one. I actually voted Labour last time around (Venstre was indeed an option, and if they had pledged not to support a Frp goverment I might have supported them).

Though we are way off track now (of what is a pretty damn strange discussion anyway).

Hehe, I felt the Venstre vibe really. My previous experience with random Venstre voters is that they hate ultra left parties (in Norway primarily SV & Rødt, in Sweden V & F!) more than anyone else, including Høyre and Frp voters. Which I find ultra comical as 80-85% of the manifestos of Venstre and SV are basically identical (and which made it so hard for me to chose between the two at age 14 as well, though I ultimately chose SV because they placed more emphasis on anti-racism, equality, class struggle, anti-militarism and such).

[eric82oslo]

Cool graph.
That one Social Democrat who aligns closest to all the centre-right candidates (Mayson Murad) must feel very out-of-place in her party.
The same of course goes for the single Christian Democrat who is placed dangerously close to all the Sweden Democrats (who are otherwise all by themselves).

Andrea Bromhed is my new favourite Swedish politician.



I'm disappointed that Folkpartiet and Feministiskt Initiativ are that close to Sverigedemokraterna on the chart.

Also, how come Centerpartiet is the second most anti-Sverigedemokraterna party after Miljøpartiet? Makes absolutely no sense to me. Unless SD is much more mainstream than the media seems to portray, which is probably the case I guess... Otherwise FI would have been much farther away from them for sure.

[eric82oslo]

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

I'm not a Sweden expert, but I'd say probably svt.se.

[eric82oslo]

According to this graph, everyone are leaving Moderaterna since last election. However, different age groups are leaving for different parties:

18-29 y.o.: leaving to Feministiskt Initiativ
30-44: leaving to Miljøpartiet
45-59: leaving to Sverigedemokraterna
60+: leaving to Sosialdemokraterna

Pretty interesting that the electorate is so torn apart in their choices.

Most revealing though is probably the mass exodus of the young voters. In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties. In this election however, they look like they will be supporting the Red Green parties by about a 21% margin, and that is even while not including their most favourite party, F!. Only 28% of the youngest voters say they will vote for one of the four governing parties. All four left wing parties are registering enormous influxes of young voters. Here's how much each left wing party has grown among young voters since last election:

F!: +10.4%
Sosialdemokraterna: +4.7%
Miljøpartiet: +4.4%
Vänsterpartiet: +3.0%

Also notice that the youngest voters are leaving Sverigedemokraterna behind, despite them looking posed to become the big winners of this election. SD has actually lost 3.9% support among the youngest electorate if we are to believe this graphic, which shows the average of the last three polls from one institute.

[eric82oslo]

In last election, the 18-29 age group voted overwhelmingly (by a 10% margin) for the Alliance parties.

No, they didn't. It was the Red-Greens which had a 10% lead among the youth in 2010. Still a big drop in support for the right in that age group, but they were nowhere winning that group four years ago either.

OK, though the article said the Alliance had almost a 10% margin in Ipsos' three last polls before last election.

[eric82oslo]

Btw, do you have any exit poll numbers for young voters and their support for SD and F! in 2010? Since SD is losing 4% support in this age group, they must have done tremendously well with them last time. Which is natural, as most trends start with the young (and urban) as well. We saw the same thing with Frp in Norway. At first, they were mostly an Oslo party with young (mostly male) voters. Today, Oslo is actually the region where they do worst, and they're no longer all that popular with young voters, especially not in Oslo, but rather with the middle aged. The party has gone from being extremely urban to today being favoured by (more) rural voters.