SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[FredLindq]

There is absolutley no anti-imigration rethoric from Folkpartiet. The are ver liberal in these issuses almost pro free imigration.

[FredLindq]

This is how the Swedish farmers voted in 2010:
Moderaterna 35% (+24 compared to 2006)
Centerpartiet 31% (-25)
Kristdemokraterna 13 (-2)
Folkpartiet 0 (-7)
Total centre-right 79%

Vänsterpartiet 9% (+9)
Socialdemokraterna 4% (-3)
Miljöpartiet 4% (+4)
Total centre-left 17%

Sverigedemokraterna 4 (+4)

Some figures seems odd for example Vänsterpartiet and Folkpartiets.

http://www.valforskning.pol.gu.se/digitalAssets/1355/1355929_rapport-2011-1-v--ljarnas-partier-1956-2010.pdf

[FredLindq]

In 1976 they were 6% off the voters today they are 1-2%

Jordbrukare (farmers)
1976
C 69%
M 15%
S 9%
FP 5%
KD 1%
V 1%

Centre-right 90%
Centre-left 10%

However the centerparty was more agrarian and centrist in these days. The got 24% nationally in 1976 (25% in 1973) benefitting from the Green wave and anti nuclear.

[FredLindq]

This is true however the centre-left has got between 7% and 19% from 1976 to 2010. So the centre-right gest at least 80% of the farmers votes.

[FredLindq]

My last "Poll off Polls"
http://www.moderatvg.se/lindqvist/1441/

[FredLindq]

Promising that the extreme right will get almost 10%?!

The centre-left will loose support when they present their plans, just as they did in 2010.

[FredLindq]

Thats not true. Iceland does not have one. And Sverigedemokraterna are the only ones that are considering cooperating with Front National, i.e. they are the most extreme ones.

And the argument that all other nordic counties have strong rightwing populist parties is just sad. So sad.

[FredLindq]

My bets are on a Reinfeldt III minority government. By I am obviously biased.

[FredLindq]

The Left (communist) leader has said that he will NOT support a guvernment that is party is not a part off.

[FredLindq]

Vänsterpartiet är partiet för den som vill ha en rödgrön regering och slippa borgerliga partier i regering. Det står klart efter Socialdemokraternas besked i regeringsfrågan.

- Idag är vi det enda partiet som står upp för en rödgrön regering utan borgerliga ministrar som Jan Björklund eller Annie Lööf. Vi är trötta på de borgerliga partierna och vill inte ha kvar något av dem i regering. Det tror jag vi delar med många väljare. Vårt mål är att ingå i en rödgrön regering med vänsterpartistiska ministrar, säger Jonas Sjöstedt.

Kan Vänsterpartiet tänka sig att regera med C och FP?

- Nej, vi vill inte ha borgerliga partier i regeringen. Vi vill ha Stefan Löfven som statsminister, men inte i sällskap med Lööf och Björklund.

Vad blir skillnaden om S och MP regerar med borgerliga partier istället för med V?

- Skillnaden är enorm. Vi är garanten för att vinstintresset försvinner från välfärden och vi skulle stärka arbetsrätten, det är inte möjligt att göra med borgerliga partier. Och jag har svårt att se hur ett samarbete med Jan Björklund skulle kunna ge någon klimatpolitik värd namnet. Det är ett mycket bekymmersamt scenario.


The Left Party is the party you want to have a red-green government and avoid bourgeois parties in government. It was clear from the Social Democrats slips in government issue.

- Today, we are the only party that stands up for a red-green government without bourgeois ministers Jan Björklund or Annie Loof . We are tired of the bourgeois parties and do not want to keep any of them in government. I think that we share with many voters. Our goal is to be part of a red-green government of leftist cal ministers, says Jonas Sjöstedt .

Can the Left willing to govern with the C and FP ?

- No, we do not want the bourgeois parties in the government. We want Stefan Löfven as prime minister, but not in the company of Loof and Björklund.

What is the difference of S and MP reigns with bourgeois parties instead of V ?

- The difference is huge. We guarantee that the profit motive will disappear from welfare and we would strengthen labor law , it is not possible to do with bourgeois parties. And I find it hard to see how a collaboration with Jan Björklund could give any climate policy worthy of the name. It's a very troubling scenario.

[FredLindq]

But he has actually said that he demands part off the guvernment. I thinks he is afraid off getting isolated. In many cities and regions they work togheter. However it is very interesting that the socialdemocrats seems to rahter be cooperating with the centre-right than with the left.

[FredLindq]

They have ver strong pro life wing which can mobilize and get "their" people elected. For example in my hometown Göteborg, the second largest in Sweden, their canidates got that much votes both to the parliament (riksdag) and the local council (kommunfullmäktige) in 2010 that they got elected instead of the first namnes on their list which was Pro choice.

Election to the riksdag. The christiandemocratic ticket in Göteborg
KD   Annelie Enochson   3208   16,46%
KD   David Lega    2625 13,47%

Annelie is PRO life and was second on the list. David is pro choice nad was first on the list. Annlie got elected.

[FredLindq]

http://www.moderatvg.se/lindqvist/1456/

[FredLindq]

http://www.moderat.se/rosta-i-valet-till-europaparlamentet-den-10-april-25-maj

[FredLindq]

"Second party" for KD voters in 2010:
M 36%
FP 22%
C 20%
MP 10%
S 6%
SD 4%
V 2%

Probably most of the KD voters were really M, FP and C tactical votes. So for the centreright it would propbably not mean that much in votes if they disapperad.

[FredLindq]

"Second party" for C voters in 2010:
M 39%
FP 29%
MP 21%
KD 7%
S 5%
V 2%
SD 1%
Others 1% 


Probably most of the C-voters where really M and FP tactical votes. So for the centreright it would propbably not mean that m in votes if they disapperad, but more since MP is a so strong second party for C-voters.

[FredLindq]

Reinfeldt has one important advantage, he is in power. A majority in the parliament (riksdag) has to vote against him in a vote of cofidence in order for a change off power. I can not see that SD does this. One possibilty is off course that he resigns.

[FredLindq]

Regarding passning budgets, it will be very tough for Löfven. Since The Red-Greens cooperated with the SD against the highering taxbrackets (brytpunkt) last year, this implies that there can be many single parts off the budget that unites the opposition.

[FredLindq]

Rich in Swedish means 46 000 € per year... :-)

[FredLindq]

High water mark. They are below 3% now and are not improving.