SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tender Branson]

Looking forward to hearing more

This ...

It's always good to have a Super Election Year (we only have the EU and Vbg. elections the next year).

...

A first question to you: It seems the Swedish economy is now also slowing down considerably along with the rest of the EU countries (only slight growth anymore in Q3 vs. Q3 2012).

Percent change same quarter, previous year (q 1994- )



http://www.scb.se/en_/Finding-statistics/Statistics-by-subject-area/National-Accounts/National-Accounts/National-Accounts-quarterly-and-annual-estimates/Aktuell-Pong/22918/219315

How does a cooling economy impact the chances of the Alliance winning the election, when they are already down considerably in the polls ? Is there still a way to "come from behind" on popular policies that are not related to the weakening economy ?

And what are the opposition Left Block's most likely chances to still screw up an election win ?

Thx and I'm looking forward to more of this thread ...

[Tender Branson]

What are your thoughts on the Swedish Resistance Movement that's quite active in the recent weeks, attacking various anti-racism groups and smeared Nazi-symbols (or the Nordic equivalents of it) on public buildings ?

What are the main parties positions on this problem ? Also, will the SRM launch a party for the elections as well (or did they already ?), or are they already to some extent in the SD or ND ?

It seems in general that extremism is spreading in Sweden, as well as from the Far-Right (SD, ND and SRM) and also from extreme Leftists who are attacking the SD's "immigration stop" as well as SD politicians as well (they, the SD, are the only major party I think who propose an immigration stop, considering Sweden's pretty liberal immigration policy. Statistics show that Sweden's population is growing 90.000 this year, or 1%, of which 70.000 is coming from the immigration surplus).

Then there's also the violent segment of Swedish-born (or immigrant) Muslims heading to Syria to fight in the Civil War and then return to Sweden even more radicalized and traumatized (but this is a problem in many European countries).

Let's see how this turns out in the next 9 months.

[Tender Branson]

Farmers are generally a very right-leaning folk.

In the 2008 election here, GfK did an election day survey (n=1800) that included a breakdown for farmers:

78% ÖVP
  9% BZÖ
  8% FPÖ (=> 95% Right)

  2% SPÖ
  1% Greens (=> 3% Left)

  2% Others

http://www.didactics.eu/index.php?id=1549

Neither of the 3 election day surveys in the 2013 election had a breakdown for farmers, because all of them used a subgroup called "Self-employed/Agriculture", which also involves company owners that have nothing to do with farming.

Just checked:

Every 3rd vote for the ÖVP comes from a farmer.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how I can participate in this election next year. I have dual American and Swedish citizenship, but I've never lived in Sweden. I should probably contact my nearest consulate...

Maybe Sweden has a similar voting system like we do ?

In our election system, if you have citizenship but have never lived here (for example because your parents have moved abroad before you were born) you can fill out a document to be added to the election rolls and send it to the city that you have a connection with (for example the last city where your parents were registered before they moved abroad).

It reads like this:

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But yeah, ask the consulate. They will know what to do in the Swedish case.

[Tender Branson]

Read more here:

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http://www.val.se/pdf/electionsinsweden_webb.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Well I was born in the US, but my parents hadn't gotten US citizenship yet so I have citizenship that way. A few years ago though I had to reapply for Swedish citizenship because I turned 20 or 21 (can't remember which) and they let me keep it, even though I'd never lived there.

TL;DR, I'll ask the consulate!

Wikipedia does not really sound optimistic for your case. Apparently, you really need to be registered at some point in some city in Sweden so you can vote (a historical connection of your parents in Sweden does not count):

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Sweden#Voter_eligibility

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Norway last year. Just the opposite.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian newspaper "DiePresse" is reporting that the center-right government is calling for a massive increase in defense spending for the 2015 budget, because of fear of Russian aggression.

Sweden will also order a ton of new submarines and aircraft/fighter jets under these plans.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/aussenpolitik/1596888/Angst-vor-Russland_Schweden-rustet-wieder-auf

What impact will these plans have ? Could this strenghten the government ahead of the poll, or is it just a thing to divert attention from that scandal you mentioned in the previous pages ?

[Tender Branson]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Also: Anything interesting being debated right now in the campaign ?

[Tender Branson]

A big forest fire in ... Sweden ?

So, the next big campaign issue will probably be climate change ...

PS: It's never good for a PM to stay away from a disaster area 1 month before an election.

[Tender Branson]

Well, if the government wants to gain some ground - now would be a good time for it ...

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Do you see the campaign as an interesting one, a balanced one or a dull one ?

And what do you think turnout will be like ?

From what I remember, it was 84-85% in 2010 ...

[Tender Branson]

Summarizing the last few days of meta-chaos:

The Swedish Migration Board, noting what a cluster the world is in currently, has requested more money to handle an uptick in asylum seekers. The amount of money requested is about 7 billion USD - that is to say, a lot of money. PM Reinfeldt noted that asylum seekers would require a larger part of the budget and probably replace any allocations to reforms, but called on the populations to open their hearts and minds and welcome those in need.

We're kind of far from Denmark. For better and worse, I guess.

Sweden these days is a real magnet for asylum seekers.

People from Syria/Eritrea/Iraq/Afghanistan/Africa, who come via Italy to the Austrian border in Tyrol increasingly tell the Austrian border agents not to send them back to Italy, because they want to travel further to Sweden (where most of their families are already).

Many still decide to stay in Austria and file for asylum here, because the border agents would send them back to Italy nontheless, so they can file for asylum here and then secretly travel to Sweden.

This has boosted population growth in Sweden to 100.000 over the last year (+1%), the biggest increase ever.

http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/Befolkning/Befolkningens-sammansattning/Befolkningsstatistik/25788/25795/Behallare-for-Press/376142

Our population has also grown by 70.000 in the past year to June, or by 0.8% (I wrote about the asylum back-and-forth earlier in the Austrian thread), but I think it is needed that the EU is helping out those in need.

Of course, other bigger countries like Italy and France - who bitch around all the time about how they take up "enough" asylum seekers already - are in fact not.

[Tender Branson]

Expressen/Demoskop also has a poll out today showing mostly similar numbers to SIFO, though weaker for the Red-Greens, slightly stronger for M and over 12% for SD.

I'm pretty sure the Sweden-Democrats will get some 12-14% in this election.

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

[Tender Branson]

Question for the Swedish posters:

Is there any other good English-speaking site besides this thread here and thelocal.se to follow election news ?

http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2054

Thx.

Swedish police use horses ? Why not just tear-gas and water-cannon the protestors ? Probably better than having a horse trample on people's heads ...

[Tender Branson]

The lead is now down to 7% (ca. 46-39), with the SD gaining and gaining.

[Tender Branson]

Is the dog a symbol for blonde, blue-eyed Swedes ?

[Tender Branson]

The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

[Tender Branson]

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

Great.

That means we have 2 hours to follow the German state election coverage in Brandenburg and Thüringen, where the polls close at 6pm, before switching to Sweden's election coverage ...

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

29.6% S
  9.5% MP
  6.8% V

45.9% Red-Greens

21.8% M
  6.6% FP
  6.0% C
  4.8% KD

39.2% Alliance

11.6% SD
  2.5% FI
  0.8% Others

Turnout: 81.8% (-2.8%)

[Tender Branson]

Good morning !

A question for the Swedes before I make my final prediction:

On the Swedish Wikipedia, it says "I riksdagsvalet 2014 är 7.576.875 personer röstberättigade." - which, if my Swedish is not totally wrong, means: "In the federal election 2014, 7.576.875 people are eligible to vote".

But if you click on the link, you are directed to val.se and the page there says that "only" 7.328.202 people are eligible to vote.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/alkon/R/rike/alderkon.html#rostberalkon

Which figure is correct ?

...

And: What is this Sweden Democrats scandal that you guys talked about earlier ?

Thx.

[Tender Branson]

Also, I guess Förtidsrösta means "early voting" ?

If yes, 2.479.727 people have already voted early vs. 2.287.373 in 2010.

http://www.val.se/val/val2014/rostmottagning/fortidsrostning/rike/index.html

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction:

29.4% S
  9.0% MP
  6.6% V

45.0% Red-Greens-Left

22.5% M
  6.4% FP
  6.3% C
  4.8% KD

40.0% Alliance

11.0% SD
  3.2% FI
  0.8% Others

Turnout: 84.0% (-0.6%)

[Tender Branson]

Förtidsrösta = Early voting, yes.

With regards to the numbers - Wikipedia has accidentally used the number of eligible voters in the County Council elections. For local elections, EU/EES citizens that reside in Sweden as well as non-EU/EES citizens that have resided in Sweden for at least three years are also eligible to vote. The lower number is correct for the Riksdag.

Thx, that explains it.

And: What is this Sweden Democrats scandal that you guys talked about earlier ?