SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Antonio the Sixth]

Awesome thread! Thanks SC!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I had no idea farmers were so right-wing... Didn't they in good part back the SAP in the 1930s-70s?

Also, what share of the population do they represent today? Is it a marginal 1-2% like in France or are they actually an important demographic?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure how farmers in France vote. They're probably solidly right-wing, but I'd imagine that the left could break 10% or even 15% among them.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very promising numbers! What a shame that the election is so far away...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I also think a S+MP minority coalition working across the aisle would be the most likely out-come if the left doesn't have its own majority, and in my view I actually wouldn't mind that so much. I could live with a wing-clipped compromising left government.

Ugh, this sounds like it has the potential to be a HORRIBLE government.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Left (communist) leader has said that he will NOT support a guvernment that is party is not a part off.

LOL

[Antonio the Sixth]

The government has apparently decided that they want to go out with a bang as big as 1994, and  turn as many people as possible against them before the election. But what do I know, giving your voter base and the swing voters the finger at the same time might be a stroke of brilliance I have yet to understand,   

Maybe they have realized they were going to lose anyway and want to leave as big a "policy mark" as they can.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, France has always had the dumbest unions in the world. For this as for everything else, Sweden rules.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The upcoming election inspired me to compile some data about Swedish elections from 1911 on. Here are a few charts I made, if someone's interested.


Party results as a % of valid votes:


Party results as a share of registered voters:


Coalition results as a % of registered voters:


Hoping to see the much needed red rebound in 2014!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks Lurker!

I don't get how you're calculating stuff in that graph. What are you counting as part of the coalitions?

Red = Left/Communists + SAP + Greens

Blue = Moderates + KDs + Liberals + Centre

I know these coalitions haven't always been stable through time, but I thought it would only make things more confusing to include different parties at different times. And yeah, I should have said bloc.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks Lurker!

I don't get how you're calculating stuff in that graph. What are you counting as part of the coalitions?

Red = Left/Communists + SAP + Greens

Blue = Moderates + KDs + Liberals + Centre

I know these coalitions haven't always been stable through time, but I thought it would only make things more confusing to include different parties at different times. And yeah, I should have said bloc.

Oh, ok. So why not as share of voters then? This seems like an unnecessary deflation of the numbers to me.

Because the red and blue lines as % of valid votes largely mirror each other, since for most of Sweden's history no party outside of the blocs garnered a significant amount of support. I thought this version of the graph would add a lot of information without losing any.

Admittedly, electoral results that factor in abstention are a pet issue to me, and I know most people don't find them that interesting. Anyway I also have the other version of the graph, I can upload it too if you're interested.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here it is!



As you see, it almost always adds up to 97-99% except for 1991, 2006 and 2010.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, for good measure, here's the first chart corrected by abstention:



It's interesting in that it cancels out both the SAP drop in 1928 (showing a continuous growth from 1920 to 1940) and the big 1940 outlier. It also shows SAP still slightly over their 1928 levels, as opposed to having shrunk back to their 1910s numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's your populist far-right thing in the 30s? Is is the Commie-turned-Nazi grouping?

Also, to those who are unaware, that colour is for New Democracy in the early 90s and for the Sweden Democrats in the 00s even though those parties are in many ways very, very different beasts.

Yeah, I've included the "national socialists" in that grouping. The Left/Communist and Right/Populist groups are the only ones that aggregate several parties at different times, including some fairly minor ones.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a chance FI gains enough traction to reach the 4% threshold? It would be wonderful to see that happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It isn't as if KD is leading a government at the moment either?

My point is that by pushing to the right they could become a strong junior coalition partner in a centre-right alliance as opposed to a weak one like they are now. Disgruntled M voters could vote for them to drag the government rightwards.

Sure, that definitely could work. I'm not really disagreeing with you. My point simply is that this might not be a good thing for the right-wing coalition overall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It isn't as if KD is leading a government at the moment either?

My point is that by pushing to the right they could become a strong junior coalition partner in a centre-right alliance as opposed to a weak one like they are now. Disgruntled M voters could vote for them to drag the government rightwards.

Sure, that definitely could work. I'm not really disagreeing with you. My point simply is that this might not be a good thing for the right-wing coalition overall.

Well, if the Red-Greens can win with V...

Sweden is a left-leaning country. News at 11.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have a question for SwedishCheese and for Gustaf.

I mean, in the USA, you're both definitely seen as moderate. But in Sweden, is that the case too? I mean, are you "potential swing voters" like in the US or you definitely choose the center right coalition?

SwedishCheese is a committed Centre Party voter, so yeah, you can count him safely on the right coalition. Gustaf hasn't made up his mind yet, but I recall the choices he's considering are mostly on the right side as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't really see how the modern Swedish left could be considered "extremist" in any way. From what I've seen in this thread, the SAP are mostly a left-leaning big tent government party at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, probably Rosenberg is just seen in Finland as a typical Swede concerning feminism (although she is actually Finn).  Same time it was told that Göran Person considered himself feminist, that was interpreted as support to radical feminist world view ( an appeaser of radical feminism). 

Gustaf, I have never seen you to distance yourself from feminist demagogy.

Wow, that's some incoherent nonsense. Are you high?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I admit that my impression was based on this scandal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gender_War

So your impression was based on some random documentary which (reading the wikipedia article) was eventually revealed to be a huge pile of bullsh*t? Well, that's what I call an informed judgement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sounds about right:

85% Feministiskt initiativ
79% Vänsterpartiet
71% Miljöpartiet
71% Socialdemokraterna
69% Piratpartiet
57% Folkpartiet
51% Kristdemokraterna
44% Centerpartiet
36% Moderaterna
33% Sverigedemokraterna