SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[DL]

From what others have written above it sounds like there has been a bit of a role reversal in Sweden between the Moderaterna and the Folkpartiet. When I lived in Sweden in the 80s, the Moderates were a very rightwing party that was comparable to the UK Tories under Thatcher while the Folkpartiet claimed at the time to see itself as the Swedish equivalent of the SDP/Liberal Alliance and was very small "l" liberal and almost indistinguishable from the SAP and tended to get a lot of support from teachers etc...now it sounds like Moderates have moved to the centre while the Folkpartiet has swung wildly to the right with all this anti-immigrant rhetoric and a very militaristic foreign policy...interesting!

[DL]

I see the north is the leftiest area in all of Sweden, but it's also sparsely populated and "rural". what makes such an area that should be by all accounts conservative so left?

I see this as very comparable to Canada where the NDP tends to sweep northern Ontario and northern Manitoba etc... Northern Sweden is a lot like northern Ontario, lots of forestry and mining and many unionized workers in those industries...it's a very different kind of rural from what you get in the south where you have more actual farming.

[DL]

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

Is this really a general pattern though? Even in the US, there are several exceptions to this "rule". Or looking at Spain: Madrid, Valencia, etc. - conservative-leaning major cities.


Hnv1: the Northern areas are generally poorer than the country at large, with a big working class. Voting patterns in Sweden have historically been quite class-based, and still are to some extent. As such, it makes sense that the Social Democrats would be dominant there.

What about France? Historically Paris was a Gaullist stronghold while some of the strongest leftwing citadels were in rural parts of the southwest?

[DL]

In Canada farmers in English Canada vote solidly conservative. It wasn't always that way out west. The CCF which was the predecessor to the NDP used to sweep rural Saskatchewan or at least be competitive up to the 90s. But farming has changed. The small family farms have vanished and farming is now big business. Farmers are now essentially small business owners and they vote accordingly.

[DL]

By the way, in the latest SIFO polls, the Alliance are 16.8 %-points behind the non-SD opposition, with the Centre Party obtaining 2.8% of the vote. No comment needed.

Yippee! Be nice to see Sweden return to the social democratic fold

[DL]

I'm not thrilled by them and I think the Social Democrats have a good lineup but the landslide loss confuses me, to be honest.

Maybe its that the Social Democrats are still the "natural party of government" in Sweden and the default option for many voters - the "bourgeois parties" can only win when there is a really good reason NOT to vote SAP - and this year there is no reason not to.

[DL]

Like their French counterparts, I don't trust Team Red/Green on holding a slim lead. I guess I'm cautious by nature. But especially if the opposition lets their guard down, they could be in trouble.

Keep in mind that unlike in most European countries in Sweden the Social Democrats are the "natural party of government' that has been in power for most of the last century and are still viewed as the "safe comfortable old show" in a way they are not in other countries. There is no history of the SAP getting over-polling compared to actual results...and needless to say if red/green has a 16 point lead over the incumbent alliance - its all over...on top of that the polls suggest that some of the weaker parts of the government coalition such as the Centre party and the Christian Democrats may fall short of 4% and lose all their seats! People can scoff at that - but look at what happened to the FDP in Germany last September

[DL]

What exactly is the rationale for the FI party? I was under the impression that Sweden was already just about the most egalitarian country in the world when it comes to women's rights and that all the legislative battles on behalf of women's equality were won long ago. Are there ANY issues where the Social Democrats or the Greens or the Left Party are regarded as 'anti-women" (for that matter are there any issues where the even the Moderaterna are considered not to be pro-female enough?)...or is this party just a personality cult around a leader?

[DL]

If this latest SIFO poll is right both the Centre party and the Christian Democrats could fall below 4% and lose all their seats. Before people say they will be bailed out by some "strategic votes" from the moderates, look at what happened to the FDP last year in Germany