SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Tayya]

It should also be noted that the Greens have continually shifted towards pragmatism since the early noughties and focus very little on shorter workdays and guaranteed incomes, to the point that very few outside their base votes for them because of those issues. Otherwise, they would never have gotten double digit poll numbers.

[Tayya]

Excellent stuff. One question: You said Reinfeldt took the Moderates from their worst defeat to one of their biggest successes. The defeat was the 2002 election I presume? There was a 7-8% swing from the Moderates to the Liberals. What happened?

How to not suck at elections in Sweden:

1) Don't campaign on drastically lower taxes without being able to articulate why they are needed and that the social services won't be completely destroyed when most people are doing fine as is and there is a remarkably energetic Liberal Party showing initiative and shifting towards tough-on-immigration policies.

2) Don't have pretty much every foot soldier from your party interviewed with a hidden camera express racist views.

[Tayya]

For the record, I don't think the racist scandal had that much effect either, but it's a very symbolic icing on the cake that deserves to be mentioned.

Personally, I think Swedish politics could have become much more interesting in that election had the Moderates fallen behind the Liberals. What a waste.

[Tayya]

Folkpartiet is just weird. It's hawkish, very pro-EU, pro-USA and pro-Israel. It's also for more traditional education politics, with more tests, earlier grades et cetera. At the same time it's probably the Alliance's strongest LGBT rights advocate and has a clear feminist/women's rights streak, which can be expected to become more prominent if groomed successor and Minister of EU Affairs Birgitta Ohlsson succeeds Jan Björklund which she is tipped to do. I like to compare them to Joe Lieberman. I wouldn't know how far they could go with being tough on immigration - they landed nowhere close to Geert Wilders or the Sweden Democrats, and their Youth League among others usually fought against them. Not to mention that they're culturally sworn enemies of the Sweden Democrats, being the urban center-right liberal's preferred party.

[Tayya]

Social issues are generally not big deals compared to economic ones up here.

Also, to clarify - the Liberals' flirt with being tough on immigration was not really about numbers of immigrants, but more about integration politics and proposals such as citizenship tests like those employed in several other countries.

[Tayya]

About 1/5 of the incumbent MPs, 67 of 349 (19.2%) are retiring in 2014. No Sweden Democratic MP has announced retirement, but two (couldn't find which ones) are undecided. Notable retirements:

Tommy Waidelich, 50, Stockholm County - Former MEP and Social Democratic spokesman for Finance under Håkan Juholt, noted as completely incompetent.
Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became known for a Facebook initiative (!) against street violence after a young boy died in a brawl. Has an infamously big chin.
Gunnar Axén, 46, Östergötland - Chairman of the Social Security Committee. Was accused of sexual harassment, but the accusation never went to court - he decided to retire immediately anyways.
Cristina Husmark Persson, 66, Skåne West - Former Minister of Social Security. Was blamed for unpopular Social Security policy changes, but it was later revealed that the Department of Finance was responsible for the "unintended effects".
Henrik von Sydow, 37, Halland - Chairman of the Taxation Committee and potential rising star.
Abdirizak Waberi, 44, Gothenburg - Former principal for an Islamic school and involved in Islamic organizations that have been linked to radical Islamism. Waberi has never gotten under enough fire to force his resignation, though.
Peter Eriksson, 55, Stockholm County - Former spokesperson for the Green Party, retiring to run for the European Parliament. Term limited by Green internal rules.
Ulf Holm, 44, Skåne South - 2nd Deputy Speaker of the Riksdag, former MEP and the formally mightiest LGBT individual in Sweden. Term limited by Green internal rules.
Mehmet Kaplan, 42, Stockholm City - Muslim pacifist, was onboard a Ship to Gaza. Resident of the Stockholm suburb Husby, where the minor riots of June 2013 started, and is running for Stockholm City Council to work with local issues.
Ulf Nilsson, 68, Skåne South - Deputy Chairman of the Culture Committee.
Fredrick Federley, 35, Stockholm City - member of the Centre Party's more libertarian wing, former Centre Youth League chairman. Running for the European Parliament, will likely not get voted in.
Johan Linander, 39, Skåne South - Deputy Chairman of the Justice Committee.
Åsa Torstensson, 55, Västra Götaland West - Former Minister of Infrastructure.
Josefin Brink, 44, Stockholm City - Rising star, named as potential party leader.
Lars Ohly, 56, Stockholm County - Former party leader.
Annelie Enochson, 60, Gothenburg - Sweden's Michele Bachmann.
Mats Odell, 66, Stockholm County - Former Minister of Communications and Minister of Financial Markets and Local Government, chairman of the Enterprise Committee.

Total:
18/112 Social Democrats (16.1%)
20/107 Moderates (18.7%)
5/25 Greens (20%)
6/24 Liberals (25%)
5/23 Centrists (21.7%)
0/20 Sweden Democrats (0%)
9/19 Leftists (47.4%)
4/19 Christian Democrats (21.1%)

[Tayya]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

We'll see where he ends up...

[Tayya]

Anton Abele, 21, Stockholm City - The Riksdag's youngest member, became

There is a merciful God after all.

We'll see where he ends up...

What is the issue with Mr. Abele?

He is a very upper class kid that became famous thanks to the Facebook page "Stop street violence now" which is slacktivism at its worst, somehow got onto the Moderates' Riksdag list as number 15, at only 18 years old, and barely got in thanks to the Moderates performing very well and a large number of ministers being picked from the Stockholm party list. Basically, he's very unqualified and represents many things that people don't like, especially the slacktivism part.

[Tayya]

Great maps, Sibboleth!

Here are some precinct results from Stockholm, to give an example of how the urban constituencies vote:

Högalid 8 Bergsund N (Northwestern edge of hipster Mecca Södermalm)
Moderates 25.51%
Greens 22.71%
Social Democrats 18.95%
Left Party 12.06%
Liberal Party 6.67%
Centre Party 5.81%
Sweden Democrats 3.34%
Christian Democrats 2.58%
Feminist Initiative 1.72%
Others (Pirate Party) 0.65%
Turnout: 78.93%

Hägersten 10 Aspudden S (Gentrified suburb in SW Stockholm)
Greens 22.80%
Moderates 22.50%
Social Democrats 21.83%
Left Party 11.40%
Centre Party 7.30%
Liberal Party 6.48%
Christian Democrats 2.68%
Sweden Democrats 2.16%
Feminist Initiative 1.94%
Others (Pirate Party, Socialist Justice Party) 0.89%
Turnout: 85.05%

Engelbrekt 11 Universitetet Ö (Students' apartments close to the University of Stockholm)
Greens 21.67%
Moderates 19.50%
Left Party 14.71%
Social Democrats 14.55%
Liberal Party 12.23%
Centre Party 8.05%
Christian Democrats 3.25%
Pirate Party 2.94%
Sweden Democrats 2.01%
Others (Feminist Initiative, European Workers' Party, Classical Liberal Party) 1.07%
Turnout: 76.17%

Farsta 10 Hökarängen N (Lower middle class suburb)
Social Democrats 33.26%
Moderates 20.64%
Greens 14.78%
Left Party 12.11%
Sweden Democrats 6.57%
Liberal Party 5.13%
Christian Democrats 2.98%
Centre Party 2.26%
Feminist Initiative 1.03%
Pirate Party 1.03%
Others (National Democrats, write-ins) 0.20%
Turnout: 74.53%

Spånga 10 Tensta V (Immigrant-heavy poor apartment area)
Social Democrats 65.35%
Left Party 10.00%
Greens 8.73%
Moderates 8.03%
Liberal Party 1.83%
Sweden Democrats 1.69%
Christian Democrats 1.41%
Socialist Justice Party 1.27%
Centre Party 0.28%
Others (Pirate Party, Feminist Initiative, write-ins) 1.41%
Turnout: 59.11%

Adolf Fredrik 5 Vasastaden S (Generic inner city)
Moderates 42.27%
Liberal Party 12.00%
Centre Party 10.67%
Greens 9.95%
Social Democrats 9.33%
Christian Democrats 7.69%
Left Party 3.49%
Sweden Democrats 2.87%
Others (Feminist Initiative, Pirate Party) 1.23%
Turnout: 84.51%

Västerled 1 Smedslätten V (upper-scale suburb, large houses)
Moderates 50.94%
Centre Party 13.93%
Christian Democrats 12.81%
Liberal Party 11.62%
Greens 4.69%
Social Democrats 3.22%
Sweden Democrats 1.05%
Left Party 0.84%
Others (Feminist Initiative, Pirate Party, Unity) 0.91%
Turnout: 82.08%

Oscar 3 Oscars kyrka SV (upper-class inner city apartment area)
Moderates 58.98%
Christian Democrats 12.27%
Centre Party 9.90%
Liberal Party 8.76%
Social Democrats 3.42%
Greens 3.07%
Sweden Democrats 1.75%
Left Party 1.31%
Others (Feminist Initiative, Pirate Party) 0.53%
Turnout: 80.07%

Note: The Socialist Justice Party are trotskists, the European Workers' Party LaRouchites and Unity is "spiritual", similar to the German Violet Party.

[Tayya]

Fred is probably right - the opposition is more of a clean slate right now, and they will probably lose ground. However, this time the Social Democrats will be able to present their own budget tailored to attract swing voters (I don't think "aargh WHO WILL YOU GOVERN WITH" will work too well, though it will sap a few percentage points) and the people won't constantly be reminded that Mona Sahlin and Thomas Östros might get into power.

I'd still say that Stefan Löfven is favored to win in September, but the margin of victory will be less than 5% and the government definitely has a fighting chance.

For comparison, a poll of polls compiled by the pollster Novus from four years ago and the current edition:

S 34.4%/33.1% (-1.3%)
MP 10.4%/10.2% (-0.2%)
V 5.8%/7.2% (+1.4%)
S+V+MP 50.6%/50.5% (-0.1%)

M 26.3%/25.0% (-1.3%)
FP 7.4%/5.6% (-1.8%)
C 5.1%/4.3% (-0.8%)
KD 4.0%/3.9% (-0.1%)
M+FP+C+KD 42.8%/38.8% (-4.0%)

SD 4.7%/9.4% (+4.7%)

Others 1.9%/1.3% (-0.6%)

Let's add the swing from December 2009 to September 2010 to the 2013 numbers and we get:

S 29.4%
MP 7.1%
V 7.0%
S+MP+V 43.5%

M 28.7%
FP 5.3%
C 5.8%
KD 5.5%
M+FP+C+KD 45.3%

The current poll numbers will not be the final results, remember that.

[Tayya]

With regards to Sverigedemokraterna, what is the most likely scenario if we get a result like this:

Alliansen: 44%
Soc.dem.+V+MP: 47%
Sverigedemokraterna: 7%

Will Reinfeldt resign with such a result, or would he try to stay in government (possibly by an agreement with SD?)?

Reinfeldt has said that he will resign if S+V+MP becomes bigger than the Alliance, but later half-backtracked it by implying that he would only do that if all the red-green parties enter government? I don't remember exactly nor understand.

This is a likely result, by the way, and we will probably see an S+MP minority coalition that has to suck up to the right-wing parties. I can't see policy coordination with SD being introduced.

It will be hell.

[Tayya]

Prognostication: V will surpass MP in 2018 if such a government happens.

[Tayya]

Yeah, I also think a S+MP minority coalition working across the aisle would be the most likely out-come if the left doesn't have its own majority, and in my view I actually wouldn't mind that so much. I could live with a wing-clipped compromising left government.

Ugh, this sounds like it has the potential to be a HORRIBLE government.

I wish I knew of a better place to move.

[Tayya]

Sweden has gotten a new party - the Christian Values Party which is founded by anti-abortion activists disappointed with the Christian Democrats turning towards "liberal values". It will be interesting to see if they can get above 0.1% and how many Christian conservatives who still vote for the Christian Democrats and haven't gone to the Sweden Democrats or not voted.

[Tayya]

Interesting development: The Christian Values Party is fake! They wanted to trick the media, who fell for it (mostly Christian media)

Sorry for not background checking enough.

As minor parties go, though, it would have filled a legitimate niche, maybe getting 0.2% or so.

[Tayya]

They have ver strong pro life wing which can mobilize and get "their" people elected. For example in my hometown Göteborg, the second largest in Sweden, their canidates got that much votes both to the parliament (riksdag) and the local council (kommunfullmäktige) in 2010 that they got elected instead of the first namnes on their list which was Pro choice.

Election to the riksdag. The christiandemocratic ticket in Göteborg
KD   Annelie Enochson   3208   16,46%
KD   David Lega    2625 13,47%

Annelie is PRO life and was second on the list. David is pro choice nad was first on the list. Annlie got elected.

Thanks

As minor parties go, though, it would have filled a legitimate niche, maybe getting 0.2% or so.

Not to sound trite, but why would anyone vote for the Christian Democrats if they aren't pro-life? The other right wing parties seem to be stronger if another issue is important to you.

They've had their support base among the Evangelical non-Church of Sweden Christians, where many identify with them strongly and care about their main issues (family politics) and until the Sweden Democrats, they've been the least pro-choice of the main parties and it's obvious that they want to be pro-life but can't because of the political consensus. Also, they have natural connections to civil society, which is a plus to some.

[Tayya]

I just don't know anymore. We'll see what happens in the election.

[Tayya]

The question every Swedish wonk asks henself today: Is the Demoskop poll released today a sign of times to come?

Social Democrats 34.7% (+1.6%)
Green Party 11.1% (+2.8%)
Left Party 6.5% (-1.8%)

Moderates 22.3% (-1.1%)
Liberal Party 5.8% (-1.2%)
Centre Party 4.5% (+1.0%)
Christian Democrats 3.6% (0.6%)

Sweden Democrats 9.8% (-0.7%)

Others 1.8% (+0.2)

For the record, the changes for the Greens and Left Party were big in the last poll, making this one similar to Demoskop's November poll with the exception of the Social Democrats (+3.5%), Centre Party (+1.5%), Sweden Democrats (-2%) and Moderates (-3.0%). Demoskop is also known for bigger-than-average shifts. The amount of undecided voters are higher than ever, so don't count out the Government.

[Tayya]

I don't think anyone votes for the Moderates or the Alliance because of Beatrice Ask, but despite Beatrice Ask.

[Tayya]

I don't think anyone votes for the Moderates or the Alliance because of Beatrice Ask, but despite Beatrice Ask.

Well, maybe Ask and her family, but besides that no one I've met have considered her to be competent at her job. (Then again I hang a lot at Law School so...)

I'm becoming more and more inclined to believe that not even her family does that anymore.

[Tayya]

Two conflicting results from two lesser polling institutes:

Metro/YouGov:
Social Democrats 31.9% (-1.2%)
Green Party 7.9% (-1.3%)
Left Party 7.6% (+0.4%)

Moderates 25.7% (+1.9%)
Liberal Party 5.7% (-0.6%)
Centre Party 5.2% (+2.2%)
Christian Democrats 4.3% (+0.6%)

Sweden Democrats 10.0% (-2.8%)

Others 1.7% (+0.7%)

Aftonbladet/United Minds:
Social Democrats 32.5% (+0.1%)
Green Party 8.9% (+0.9%)
Left Party 8.4% (+0.4%)

Moderates 24.0% (-0.1%)
Liberal Party 6.1% (-1.5%)
Centre Party 4.5% (+0.5%)
Christian Democrats 3.3% (-1.3%)

Sweden Democrats 10.8% (+0.8%)

Others 1.5% (+0.1%)

Conclusion: The Demoskop poll was probably an outlier, but the result might lie closer to United Minds than to YouGov.

[Tayya]

Skop:
Social Democrats 32.7% (-2.5%)
Green Party 9.7% (+0.8%)
Left Party 7.0% (-0.1%)

Moderates 27.2% (+1.6%)
Liberal Party 6.3% (+0.4%)
Centre Party 4.5% (+1.0%)
Christian Democrats 3.1% (-0.5%)

Sweden Democrats 8.4% (-0.9%)

Others 1.1% (+0.2%)

This news month has been somewhat less bad for the government, so a slight bounce does make sense. Note that all polls hitherto has shown C rising, for some reason.

I think we can confirm that Demoskop appeared to be a slight outlier, unfortunately.

We're basically back to what Skop showed in the September poll, for the record. No change from those numbers is greater than 1%.

[Tayya]

There we go.

[Tayya]

Relevant to this thread: Found an article from political blog makthavare.se on a research paper about polling institutes and their biases.

Mean distance to poll composite:
Novus 0,022
Sifo 0,024
SCB 0,026
Ipsos/Synovate 0,026
YouGov 0,027
Demoskop 0,032
Skop 0,032
United Minds 0,034
Sentio Research 0,035

Bias:
Novus, SCB, Sifo, YouGov: Very small bias
Demoskop: Overestimates FP, MP; underestimates "Other parties"
Ipsos: Overestimates M, C, FP, KD; underestimates SD
Sentio: Overestimates SD, "Other parties"; underestimates S, M, MP, C, FP, KD
Skop: Overestimates M, C, FP, KD; underestimates "Other parties"
United Minds: Overestimates SD, "Other parties"; underestimates S, M, C, FP, KD

Note that the averages is compared to a poll composition, a "poll of polls", and not election results.

[Tayya]

Note that all polls hitherto has shown C rising, for some reason.

Well our party leader has not appeared much on TV or in the newspapers lately, which helps.

It will be interesting to see the election campaign when her face appears on all the election posters. I heard you're putting Eskil Erlandsson up front this time - should be a wise choice, especially north of Dalälven and south of Klarälven.

I feel like I'm one of the ones who hate Annie Lööf the least these days and I'm very very very far from her in about every aspect possible.