SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Lurker]

From what others have written above it sounds like there has been a bit of a role reversal in Sweden between the Moderaterna and the Folkpartiet. When I lived in Sweden in the 80s, the Moderates were a very rightwing party that was comparable to the UK Tories under Thatcher while the Folkpartiet claimed at the time to see itself as the Swedish equivalent of the SDP/Liberal Alliance and was very small "l" liberal and almost indistinguishable from the SAP and tended to get a lot of support from teachers etc...now it sounds like Moderates have moved to the centre while the Folkpartiet has swung wildly to the right with all this anti-immigrant rhetoric and a very militaristic foreign policy...interesting!

The biggest change amongst the "borgerliga"/bourgeoisie parties have not been in Folkpartiet though - even if it is more right-wing now than has usually been the case. The change in Centerpartiet is even more noticeable, having gone in a few years from being a milquetoast, middle-of-the-road party, to one heavily influenced (and dominated?) by Thatcherites. This right-wing shift, started under the leadership of Maud Olofsson, lead to some  calling them "Mauderaterna".

 

[Lurker]

Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the main exceptions to the general pattern that Left=Urban, Right=Rural.From what I have researched  This is apparently because small towns are industrialized and proletarian, less wealthy, while the cities are bourgeoisie, academic, professional and wealthier. Denmark for some reason, does follow the general pattern.

Is this really a general pattern though? Even in the US, there are several exceptions to this "rule". Or looking at Spain: Madrid, Valencia, etc. - conservative-leaning major cities.


Hnv1: the Northern areas are generally poorer than the country at large, with a big working class. Voting patterns in Sweden have historically been quite class-based, and still are to some extent. As such, it makes sense that the Social Democrats would be dominant there.

[Lurker]

With regards to Sverigedemokraterna, what is the most likely scenario if we get a result like this:

Alliansen: 44%
Soc.dem.+V+MP: 47%
Sverigedemokraterna: 7%

Will Reinfeldt resign with such a result, or would he try to stay in government (possibly by an agreement with SD?)?

[Lurker]

 Compared to last month's polls, this one seems a bit of an outlier. Will be interesting to see if other january polls support Demoskop's findings. I stumbled across this poll aggregator site recently: http://svenskopinion.nu/ - would guess you Swedes are familiar with it, but thought  it might be interesting for the foreigners (all five or so of them ) who read this thread.

Btw, this story about your Minister for Justice, Beatrice Ask, was pretty funny: http://www.dagbladet.no/2014/01/08/nyheter/utenriks/sverige/31182134/

Just goes to show that the old jokes about you guys are accurate.

[Lurker]

Just goes to show that the old jokes about you guys are accurate.

Beatrice Ask is not comparable to the rest of the Swedish people.
As a matter of fact she's from Jämtland, which historicly has stronger ties to Norway than Sweden.
So if anything, it should prove our old jokes.

We will consider taking responsibility for Beatrice Ask, once you've given back what was stolen.
Until then: No dice.

[Lurker]

So, the difference between the blocks in the various polls

                 
               
                                                  Difference (pp)
Demoskop:       52,3% - 36,2%   ------ 16,1

United Minds:   49,8% - 37,9%  ------ 11,9 

Metro/YouGOV: 47,4% - 40,9% ------ 6,5

Skop:                49,4%  -  41,1% ----- 8,3



Quite a lot of variation, though I guess some of these firms are more reliable than others.

[Lurker]

I don't see why everyone is writing off the Alliance so early. The left ended up losing by 5-6% last time around, despite leading by 5% in the Sifo poll from March 2010. http://www.tns-sifo.se/media/262436/vb%20mar%202010%20svd.pdf

There'll probably be another "hung parliament", IMO, at least if Sverigedemokraterna get 8-9% or so.

[Lurker]

A gem I'd like to share.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQakZce3GhQ

From Wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"A dynamism of opposites in the earlier so homogenous Swedish society, a surface of friction does appear but this peaceful dynamism of opposites that, in my view, means much to vitalise the Swedish society" - Then-Prime Minister Carl Bildt

"Hello. Now I think that we together in this room should sing "We Shall Overcome"." - Minister of Immigration Birgit Friggebo

"You'll never succeed through shouting." - Then-Prime Minister Carl Bildt

The first quote is truly a Bildt classic. Bizarre that he would use such complicated and "heavy" language, particularly when addressing a crowd of immigrants.
 

[Lurker]

The Coalition ("bloc" or something like that would probably be better) stuff  seems to be based on the alliances of today  - i.e. Kd is included in the Bourgeoisie coalitons long before they actually were so in reality.

Nice graphs!

[Lurker]

Is there a chance FI gains enough traction to reach the 4% threshold? It would be wonderful to see that happen.

Another left-wing party is the last thing the Swedish left needs, at least in the long run (particularly with regards to the 4% treshold).

[Lurker]

Is there a chance FI gains enough traction to reach the 4% threshold? It would be wonderful to see that happen.

Another left-wing party is the last thing the Swedish left needs, at least in the long run (particularly with regards to the 4% treshold).

Indeed. Just look at the parliamentary election in Norway last fall. The socialist left (SV), the communists (RV) and the Green Party (MdG) got far fewer seats than their combined amount of votes would suggest. A new leftwing fringe party would most likely benefit the right far more than the left.  

Yep. One of the reasons why I think it will be difficult for the centre-left to gain a majority, in the 2017 Norwegian election. It's possible that 1/6, or more, of its vote will be wasted, if both MdG and SV barely fail to pass the treshold (not that MdG aligns with any "bloc", but I would suspect 90% of their voters are from the left (and yes, I'm very much getting ahead of myself here)).

[Lurker]

Many centre-right voters will undoubtedly vote tactically to save Centerpartiet and KD (like Gustaf is considering) so it's pretty unlikely that they will fall under the treshold, IMO.

Centerpartiet has a very long history and have significant resources - very much doubt they'll disappear even if they got less than 4%. But, it might convince them that the "Thatcherism" stuff was not a very good idea (I get the impression that the current line of the party, which has practically placed them to the right of Moderaterna economically, is pretty unpopular amongst many in the party).

[Lurker]

A core problem for KD is that the natural tack for them is to become a modern conservative party. They've made moves in this direction, like when Hägglund talked about "the people of reality" or when Ebba Busch talked about limiting the state's powers and being like a watchdog towards the government. But a large part of their supporters are religious conservatives who sort of want government intervention in both the economy and on social issues. So they're a bit trapped in contradiction.

Wouldn't this make the completely superfluous though? A better way to stay relevant could be to adopt a profile more like their Norwegian sister party. Though the market for "social conservatism" in Sweden may be even smaller than here,  I suppose.

[Lurker]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

[Lurker]

Yes, they really seem superfluous, as said earlier.

Why did Schyman leave Vänsterpartiet in the first place, btw?

As for that video... Wow.

[Lurker]

Won't the Greens demand some more prominent portfolios?

[Lurker]

Feminist Initiative could really cause difficulties for the Red-Greens. As of that Expressen poll, there are 3 %points "wasted" (obviously, practically all of those who would consider voting for Schyman's party are left-wing voters). Right now it doesn't matter much, but if things narrows slightly it could help lead to a "hung parliament" - i.e., like today, with no bloc having majority of MPs.

Of course, if they do reach the treshold it's obvious who they will support.

[Lurker]

Even if the Alliance won't win, they could technically hang on if the Sweden Democrats vote "present" in the government formation vote - there wasn't any vote last time since everyone just accepted that the Alliance minority had won - though PM Reinfeldt would tarnish his reputation big time and it would create an absolute havoc among several segments of the populace.

What do you reckon are the chances of this happening, If there is a "hung parliament", with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc?

[Lurker]

The idea that the Alliance stays on as a minority if the Red-Greens are larger than them is inconceivable however, since they would not be able to pass a budget then.     

My current prediction btw is the Alliance ending up between 40-42, the Left at 46-48, and the SD with 7-9 with another hung parliament as result. Though I'm sure that might change in the coming months. 

My prediction is pretty simillar to yours. The gap between the "blocs" have tended to be pretty small in general elections - pretty sure the current lead will decrease.

Good point about the budget. In Sweden you don't need a parliamentary majority to pass one - correct? IIRC, the proposed budget that has the highest number of votes gets ratified, regardless of how big the plurality is.

[Lurker]

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

So otherwise a grand coalition sort of like you have right now in Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium.

My question is how do those work out as I know in the English speaking world they would be DOA considering how much the right and left hate each other.  But it seems in Europe there isn't the same animosity you see in the English speaking countries.

There have never been one in Sweden ("Europe" is a bit too vague), with the exception of during WW2, so it's hard to say how it would work out.

It's totally out of the question though - for one thing, the mutual dislike between Moderaterna and the Social Democrats is too strong.

[Lurker]

Would it be possible in Norway?

While that idea has been discussed openly by prominent (retired) Labour and Conservative politicians in the past, and though many of their voters wouldn't mind, it's still impossible. The only way I could ever see it happening would be if the "centrist" parties took part as well, and even then it could probably only take place in some kind of emergency situation. For historical reasons, many in their "bases" would have a hard time reconciling with such a coalition, and it would be extremely unpopular amongst the Labour left.

[Lurker]

We must always the dual identity of SAP. It has always been against nationalisations of Swedish industry, making it much more libertarian than many equal parties in Western Europe.

I was going to make the same point. In fact not only more "libertarian" than most sister parties on those issues, but also more than many centre-right parties - at least in practice. Throughout the Social-Democratic "glory days", Sweden had one of the lowest levels of nationalisation in Europe, IIRC.

But then again, the popular idea of Sweden as particularly left-wing (a left-wing paradise or hellhole depending on whom you ask) has always been, in many ways, a myth.

[Lurker]

Yet more bad news for the government. SCB's big May poll is out, and it shows the following:

Socialdemocraterna - 35,3%
MP - 8,0%
Vänsterpartiet - 8,0%
--------
Moderaterna - 22,7%
KD -  
Folkpartiet - 5,3%
Centerpartiet - 4,7%
----------
Sverigedemokraterna - 8,1%
Others  - 3,9%


Red-Greens: 51,5%
Government parties: 36,8%



Surprisingly, the Feminist Party doesn't show up here, though I'll bet they improve their results in polls made after the European elections.

[Lurker]

The SCB thingy gets way too much hype. It's severely overrated. That said, it only confirms what we already knew so obviously still troubling for the government.

At least F! is now likely to siphon off a couple of percentage points from the Red-Green bloc.

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Btw, what are the reasons for F!'s recent surge (or why did it happen now, and not earlier)?

[Lurker]

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Schyman is the least problem with F!. It should be remembered that she, back in her days as Left Party leader, cooperated for 9 years with Göran Persson, and they hated eachother. I mean really hated, you should hear some of the things they've said about eachother.

It's the other more dubious personalities in F! that would make life hard for our good friend Stefan. Let us not forget Tiina Rosenberg who lovingly exclaimed that all women who sleep with men are traitors of their gender.

Interesting. Is this known to the much of the public/their voters?