If you could pick the Republican nominee in 2016

[Orser67]

As a Democrat, I'd go with either Alan Simpson or Steve Stockman. If Simpson were the nominee of a major party, there's at least a significant chance he would win, despite age and potential issues with the base. But having someone so moderate, so generally respected, and possibly not focused on re-election, might make for a nice change of pace. For Stockman, I think nominating someone like him would discredit the GOP for not just that cycle but possibly for a few cycles.

If I were a Republican trying to win, I think I'd go with Rubio. He's not a perfect politician, but he isn't that bad, and I think he has found a nice middle ground between not always going along with the far right and not being totally unacceptable either. He's also from Florida, which I do think could add a point or two to his total there (despite, iirc, unexceptional approval ratings).  More importantly, he's Hispanic, and I tend to think that whichever party is the first to nominate an Hispanic politician will get a boost from the Hispanic vote in that election cycle. I'd also consider Sandoval if he "evolves" on abortion. Kasich or Portman would make for a nice running mate. I think this would make for a good ticket to go after the obvious swing states, the Southwest, and the Rust Belt.