How many incumbent Republican Senators get Tea Partied out?

[7,052,770]

Cochran and McConnell seem like they're in the most danger, but recent polling looks like Alexander may be too.  Graham, Cornyn, Enzi, and Collins are plausibly vulnerable.

I'll be cautious and say 2, but it's more likely to be 3 than 1.

[RogueBeaver]

Cochran. He's in the low 40s this far out and Pubs want someone more conservative by a 20pp margin. Same numbers as Lugar. Cornyn and Enzi definitely not, Alexander maybe.

[Maxwell]

It'll be Cochran. Alexander has had challenges like this before, and I feel like he can deal with it.

[politicus]

Cochran, McConnell and Graham seems more likely than not.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I think the three who face the most danger are Cochran, McConnell and Graham, but only Cochran looks like his in trouble.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm going to go out in the open and say none. But I think only one is in real danger (Cochran), three others in moderate danger (Graham, McConnell, and Alexander). The others will be fine.

[Miles]

Cochran. He's in the low 40s this far out and Pubs want someone more conservative by a 20pp margin. Same numbers as Lugar. Cornyn and Enzi definitely not, Alexander maybe.

TX Republicans also want someone more conservative than Cornyn by a 20 point margin.

[morgieb]

Cochran. He's in the low 40s this far out and Pubs want someone more conservative by a 20pp margin. Same numbers as Lugar. Cornyn and Enzi definitely not, Alexander maybe.

TX Republicans also want someone more conservative than Cornyn by a 20 point margin.

Stockman is far more of a joke than McDaniel is though IMO.

[morgieb]

If Stockman does primary Cornyn, can we kick Texas out of the Union?

[publicunofficial]

Cochran and another surprise one (Most likely Graham).




I don't see Enzi, McConnell, or Cornyn losing.

[Donerail]

In order of likelihood:

1. Cochran
2. McConnell
3. Alexander
4. Graham
5. Enzi
6. Cornyn
7. Collins

[Maxwell]

Cochran. He's in the low 40s this far out and Pubs want someone more conservative by a 20pp margin. Same numbers as Lugar. Cornyn and Enzi definitely not, Alexander maybe.

TX Republicans also want someone more conservative than Cornyn by a 20 point margin.

He's also ALREADY basically tied with his tea party challenger in most legitimate polls. McDaniels will probably beat Cochran if that's the case unless it turns out he did some comical infomercial scam like J.D. Hayworth or something equally ridiculous that ruins his credibility as a conservative challenge.

[RogueBeaver]

McDaniel has neo-Confederate associations, but that isn't exactly hurting him.

[Maxwell]

McDaniel has neo-Confederate associations, but that isn't exactly hurting him.

That doesn't hurt his conservative credentials, he still seems as conservative as before. J.D. Hayworth, on the other hand, was in an infomerical offering people free money! Also, I do not think Bevin will make it, because he asked the Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal for a bailout. Those kind of things hurt their conservative credentials.

[NewYorkExpress]

Cochran,McConnell, Cornyn and Graham all lose... Cheney makes her matchup with Enzi uncomfortably close, but doesn't get over the top.  Alexander is in mild danger... and Collins is safe.

[CatoMinor]

Guys, unless something major happens Cornyn is reasonably safe.

Graham is the biggest target but he has MIC money, the establishment, and probably the powers of darkness on his side, so it will be tough to pick him off.

Alexander and Cochran are the most likely imo to lose.

[Kevin]

National Journal Predicting all survive primary challenges.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/ranking-the-top-5-senators-vulnerable-in-2014-primaries-20131227

[Del Tachi]

Cochran is in the most danger, but he will squeak-out a narrow victory over McDaniel. 

[Miles]

The Daily Beast looks at 5 Ted Cruz-wannabe Senate candidates running. I'm surprised they left out Brannon and Maness.

[JerryArkansas]

The Daily Beast looks at 5 Ted Cruz-wannabe Senate candidates running. I'm surprised they left out Brannon and Maness.

That link goes to advice on what women should do at the office.

[Miles]

The Daily Beast looks at 5 Ted Cruz-wannabe Senate candidates running. I'm surprised they left out Brannon and Maness.

That link goes to advice on what women should do at the office.

Whoah! It looks like the site is mixing up the articles.

Try this.

[JerryArkansas]

The Daily Beast looks at 5 Ted Cruz-wannabe Senate candidates running. I'm surprised they left out Brannon and Maness.

That link goes to advice on what women should do at the office.

Whoah! It looks like the site is mixing up the articles.

Try this.

Ok.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Graham and Alexander hold on fairly narrowly. Cornyn and Enzi blow out their opponents.

[IceSpear]

McDaniel has neo-Confederate associations, but that isn't exactly hurting him.

That doesn't hurt his conservative credentials, he still seems as conservative as before. J.D. Hayworth, on the other hand, was in an infomerical offering people free money! Also, I do not think Bevin will make it, because he asked the Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal for a bailout. Those kind of things hurt their conservative credentials.

Let's not forget that "family values Republicans" in SC voted for Newt Gingrich in a landslide.

[7,052,770]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.