How many incumbent Republican Senators get Tea Partied out?

[Maxwell]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

McDaniel could lose to Childers, but I think Mississippi is probably less elastic than Indiana and Missouri. Then again, I could just not know anything about Mississippi.

[free my dawg]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

McDaniel could lose to Childers, but I think Mississippi is probably less elastic than Indiana and Missouri. Then again, I could just not know anything about Mississippi.

You're right. It's two-thirds as elastic as Indiana and Missouri.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

You really think McDaniel cannot win? In Mississippi? Under any circumstances?

[IceSpear]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

While they might seem close on paper, they really aren't. Mississippi voters are inelastic.

[7,052,770]

You really think McDaniel cannot win? In Mississippi? Under any circumstances?

Sure he could win. I'm just extremely skeptical that he can hold it together for a whole year. The guy is a loose cannon and is despised by the Republican establishment.  They'll be digging and baiting him through the primary, and if he makes it through it, the national Democratic Party will take over the digging and baiting.

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

While they might seem close on paper, they really aren't. Mississippi voters are inelastic.

While Mississippi voters are certainly less elastic than most states in presidential elections, we're talking about a state that as recently as 2008 elected 2 Democrats to Congress in overwhelmingly white Republican districts. 

Plus, McDaniel is nowhere close to your typical Republican.  A typical Republican office holder like Stacey Pickering would beat Childers by 10 points or more.  This reminds me of the Personhood Amendment -- the absurdly terrible proposal to ban abortion and birth control and make police investigate miscarriages.  Everyone was certain it would pass because "It's Mississippi!" but it actually failed 60-40 because it was that terrible.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

Republicans in Mississippi are far more inelastic than they are in either of those, regardless of the Presidential numbers.

Edit: Heh, this was said many times before me.

[7,052,770]

Republicans in Mississippi are far more inelastic than they are in either of those, regardless of the Presidential numbers.

Again, due to the quality of candidates, Mississippi districts with PVI of R+16 and R+21 elected Democrats to Congress as late as 2008.  And despite Mississippi's reputation as a conservative, anti-abortion state, it soundly rejected an abortion ban in 2011 because of the wording.

No one is arguing that Cochran could lose in the general, or that a legitimate Republican like Reeves, Pickering, or even Gregg Harper would lose the Senate race to any Democrat.  But McDaniel is not like that. He's Akin times Mourdock plus Angle.  I think a lot of posters on this thread just aren't grasping how much of a joke McDaniel is.

In Congressional races, Mississippian Republicans have voted for good Democratic candidates over terrible Republican ones.  It is not out of the question that (after 6 more years of favorable demographic drift), one of those same 2 Democrats who already beat a terrible Republican candidate in an overwhelmingly white Republican district could beat another terrible Republican candidate in a statewide race, when the state as a whole is less Republican that MS-1.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

The difference is that as of now there is no viable Democrat running in MS unlike in IN or MO.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think MS and TN show similar signs to that of IN 2012 based on the current numbers and the history in the case of TN. If Carr unites that typically devided right vote then he could easily end up winning by ten to twelve, possibly more. I don't see Alexander crashing like Lugar though.

I don't think that these groups are going to let SC slip away without some effort.

I'd say three for right now as the max.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cochran and maybe Alexander, but I could also see tea-party candidates beating stronger candidates in NC, GE, CO, and maybe AK (where it matters) and NE (where it doesn't).  The state representative in Louisiana could be a problem to although Cassisy will still make the run-off.  Bevin, Bright, Edmunds, and especially Stockman and McGeehan won't gain any traction.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think Bright will be the last word in terms of knocking out Graham.

[IceSpear]

Republicans in Mississippi are far more inelastic than they are in either of those, regardless of the Presidential numbers.

In Congressional races, Mississippian Republicans have voted for good Democratic candidates over terrible Republican ones.  It is not out of the question that (after 6 more years of favorable demographic drift), one of those same 2 Democrats who already beat a terrible Republican candidate in an overwhelmingly white Republican district could beat another terrible Republican candidate in a statewide race, when the state as a whole is less Republican that MS-1.

That was before there was a black guy in the White House.

For "Black guy in White House effect", see Arkansas.

[morgieb]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

The difference is that as of now there is no viable Democrat running in MS unlike in IN or MO.

I'm guessing that most people think that Travis Childers (who as an ex-white Congressman is definitely a viable candidate) will run.

Harry raises some valid points, though I still think Mississippi would be no worse than a toss-up for any Republican.

[Vosem]

Voted 1 as the most likely (chances exist in lots of states, and somewhere it probably will happen), but I don't think any specific Senator, as yet, is likelier to lose than to win (however, Brannon seems like the likeliest nominee in NC, and Whitaker as I understand it is Paulist and seems like the likeliest in IA; and that's before we get to the Georgia primary). The ones that seem to me to be in real danger are Cochran, Graham, and Alexander, in that order. Bevin, Stockman, and Cheney (not that the last is anything like a TP challenge, but we can group it in) have no chance.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Just Cochran. McDaniel runs an embarrassing campaign in the general with at least a few jaw-dropping comments, but Mississippi isn't Missouri or Indiana. He still heads to the Senate.

Mississippi -- Romney 55.3, Obama 43.8
Indiana -- Romney 54.0, Obama 43.8
Missouri -- Romney 53.6, Obama 44.3

McDaniel is not going to win.  Whether Cochran or Childers wins next November depends on whether McDaniel makes a campaign-killing comment before the primary or after it.

This is the difference between those two states and Mississippi.

[7,052,770]

It's like a broken record here...  Yet again, those "elasticity" numbers are based on presidential elections.  If Mississippi is so impossibly inelastic for the Republicans, how do you explain Mississippi's two most Republican house districts electing Democrats as late as 2008?

Yes, those were good Democratic candidates vs. poor Republican candidates.  And that's precisely what Childers vs. McDaniel would be.

[politicus]

It's like a broken record here...  Yet again, those "elasticity" numbers are based on presidential elections.  If Mississippi is so impossibly inelastic for the Republicans, how do you explain Mississippi's two most Republican house districts electing Democrats as late as 2008?

Yes, those were good Democratic candidates vs. poor Republican candidates.  And that's precisely what Childers vs. McDaniel would be.

You made a convincing argument, but some folks just like their Mississippi-prejudices too much.

[Del Tachi]

Harry is absolutely right.

As a Mississippi Republican, I would vote for Childers or Taylor over McDaniel any day.

There are quite a good number of people down here who share similar sentiments as I do.

Mississippi hasn't completely shaken its Democratic roots. 

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Harry is absolutely right.

As a Mississippi Republican, I would vote for Childers or Taylor over McDaniel any day.

There are quite a good number of people down here who share similar sentiments as I do.

Mississippi hasn't completely shaken its Democratic roots. 

It'll be interesting to see. If the Tea Party actually manages to cost the GOP a Senate seat in Mississippi, that's likely to be finally the end of them.

[Orser67]

Like Vosem said, I think at least one incumbent will probably lose, but I don't think any incumbent is currently the underdog.

The Tea Party candidates are pretty underwhelming. But they could prove me wrong.

[Beezer]

My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all.