Canadian by-elections, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne says that Ontarians want change, "I am that change" and "as we head into a general election." Explicitly mentions GE 4 times in the speech. Visiting the LG sometime soon?

[RogueBeaver]

ROFLMAO @ Wynne. Definitely Deluge-worthy.

[RogueBeaver]

Media reacting largely as expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of swing, not much difference in Thornhill. The results there don't fluctuate much, but it's so even that it's been enough to change party hands a few times. It's like a mini-Ohio Florida. (better metaphor considering the demographics)

[emcee0]

I volunteered for Joyce Morocco in NF, great candidate who fought a great battle despite the unpopularity of the party right now.
A dipper win in the falls shows how weak a leader Hudak actually is as a leader. People actually remember Mike Harris

[Hatman 🍁]

I volunteered for Joyce Morocco in NF, great candidate who fought a great battle despite the unpopularity of the party right now.
A dipper win in the falls shows how weak a leader Hudak actually is as a leader. People actually remember Mike Harris

A great candidate? Not as great as Wayne Gates, objectively. He did win more votes than her back in the 2010 city council election, after all.

Interestingly, the swing to the NDP in Niagara Falls wasn't as impressive as in Kitchener-Waterloo or London West. I wonder if there's less wind in the NDP's sails, or Niagara Falls is just less NDP-friendly than those other seats? Or perhaps running a very "union looking" man scared voters more than the friendly looking female school trustees that ran in the other two seats. (reverse sexism?) After all, there was a ridiculous campaign by the right wing parties calling Wayne Gates a "radical".

[Hatman 🍁]

[lilTommy]

I was right that both NF and Thornhill would be closer then Forums second poll; oddly enough their fist poll was almost dead on, in NF they have NDP 38, PC 36 OLP 19 - that almost exact! 39/37/19 was the result.
Hatman - I think the PCs vicious smear campaign against Radical Wayne probably had an impact, unions are very polarizing its a love/hate thing, also Maves was a better candidate then the Tories had in either LW and KW, so i think that also had an impact. Just the fact that the riding leans more Conservative/PC meaning they have a deeper base helped as well. The loss though might bring a change to the PCs ironically named right-to-work policy, and that surely played a part since there vote stuck at mid-30's the entire campaign and the media was all over the in-fighting.

I did notice that Gates and Hatfield look eerily similar, both stocky mustached men... the Union-NDP breeding pool? LOL

[adma]

Interestingly, the swing to the NDP in Niagara Falls wasn't as impressive as in Kitchener-Waterloo or London West. I wonder if there's less wind in the NDP's sails, or Niagara Falls is just less NDP-friendly than those other seats? Or perhaps running a very "union looking" man scared voters more than the friendly looking female school trustees that ran in the other two seats. (reverse sexism?) After all, there was a ridiculous campaign by the right wing parties calling Wayne Gates a "radical".

Or, it could just as well be that the PCs had a lot more that was concertedly invested here--Hudak's home seat, ex-MPP (and now with "municipal-pol" cred) in the running, etc.

But I don't think their inherent base in NF is as deep as it seems--a lot of it is by default thanks to the federal hold; but it's a pretty blue-collarish seat, really, a 3-way sort of place...

[RogueBeaver]

Sun front page.

[MaxQue]

Terrible spinning. The real loser is Hudak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Terrible spinning. The real loser is Hudak.

I disagree. The Liberals lost a seat they previously held. Finished third no less. If I were a Liberal, I wouldn't want to be pulling the plug right now.

[Krago]

Quick and dirty map, based on 224 of the 263 'ordinary' polls, from last night's by-election.

(No results available for 'gray' polls.)

[lilTommy]

Quick and dirty map, based on 224 of the 263 'ordinary' polls, from last night's by-election.

(No results available for 'gray' polls.)

WOW the NDP won and tied in polls in NOTL! that's a success in itself!

I don't think this surprises anyone; The NDP has supplanted the OLP in the city, OLP hung on to a good chunk of its vote in NOTL though, NDP grew it's support in Fort Erie which is great since the 2011 candidate was the former mayor and without him the potential to lose those votes were there; also nice to see the NDP winning a few rural polls both in the city in the south end. Why no data! camman! For quick and dirty looks great... the problem for the OLP is this could potentially be repeated in ridings like Brant, Peterborough, Chatham-Kent, Sarnia-Lambton ridings with urban-rural mixes but dominated by a medium sized city

[Krago]

[You kip if you want to...]

Too early to start talking about Premier Horwath?

[MaxQue]

Too early to start talking about Premier Horwath?

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

[lilTommy]

Too early to start talking about Premier Horwath?

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

Agreed, adding to that, the NDP concentrated is efforts in NF; just last from the summer... the NDP did really well when they are able to concentrate the resources (WT, LW) did terrible in ridings perceived to be two way OLP-PC races (EL OS{saved somewhat by a good candidate), and they remain competitive but third in no-traditional areas with strong candidates SG); Howath should not race out to an election yet. In  general election ridings will be on their own mostly, with a few targeted ridings getting some extra resources

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks, Krago.

Looks like the NDP didn't make much of a gain in Fort Erie (went from narrowly losing to narrowly winning). This makes sense, as the NDP candidate in 2011 was from Ft Erie, and Gates is from Niagara Falls. Most of the gains were made in the Falls. Also nice to see some orange in NOTL.

[lilTommy]

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/14/tim_hudak_lashes_out_at_union_elite_after_byelections.html

"sounds" like Horwath isn't going to push for an election... and is using that against the other two leaders. Hudak also sounds more then bitter about the NF loss.

[DL]

Interestingly, the swing to the NDP in Niagara Falls wasn't as impressive as in Kitchener-Waterloo or London West. I wonder if there's less wind in the NDP's sails, or Niagara Falls is just less NDP-friendly than those other seats? Or perhaps running a very "union looking" man scared voters more than the friendly looking female school trustees that ran in the other two seats. (reverse sexism?) After all, there was a ridiculous campaign by the right wing parties calling Wayne Gates a "radical".

There is a simple reason for that. In 2011 the ONDP heavily targeted Niagara Falls and ran the former mayor of Fort Erie - he succeeded in raising the NDP vote in the riding from 4th place (yes 4th) in 2007 with 9% of the vote to 26% in 2011 - so the NDP vote in NF in '11 was already boosted. In contrast, London West and Kitchener-Waterloo were not NDP targets at all in 2011 and the campaigns in those ridings were very weak - so in other words the NDP had much bigger swings in KW and London West mostly because they were coming from a much lower level and had more growth potential. In NF a large part of the growth already happened 2007 to 2011. 

[King of Kensington]

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/14/tim_hudak_lashes_out_at_union_elite_after_byelections.html

"sounds" like Horwath isn't going to push for an election... and is using that against the other two leaders. Hudak also sounds more then bitter about the NF loss.

Gee Tim, if you can't even with a "PC seat" how can you form a government?

[King of Kensington]

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

It is a bit early, but Niagara Falls seems pretty representative of SW Ontario/industrial heartland seats.

The NDP didn't put any effort into Thornhill and it's a very wealthy suburban riding and one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in the province.

[RogueBeaver]

Re Hudak's bitching: he could privately vow to loosen the campaign finance regime to match WF's spending. Not rocket science. Or build a better GOTV organization, perhaps with federal help if requested?

[RogueBeaver]

Kinsella and Paikin have, predictably, quite different takes. WK sees a Grit massacre outside GTA, Paikin a muddled status quo. Not necessarily incompatible: Paikin could be right in the short term, Kinsella in a GE.