Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

It is a bit early, but Niagara Falls seems pretty representative of SW Ontario/industrial heartland seats.

The NDP didn't put any effort into Thornhill and it's a very wealthy suburban riding and one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in the province.

Actually, Niagara Falls is a pretty reliable bellwether (has gone for the government every election since 1985; federally has done since every election but 2 since 1963). Certainly good news for the NDP.

Kinsella and Paikin have, predictably, quite different takes. WK sees a Grit massacre outside GTA, Paikin a muddled status quo. Not necessarily incompatible: Paikin could be right in the short term, Kinsella in a GE.

I read Paikin's bit.  It's a bit moronic. Here's my comment I made when Alice Funke posted in Facebook (it's got three likes so far! ) :

Paikin missed the fact that the other two candidates in NF were also city councillors, and Gates was more popular (received a higher vote in 2010). Also griping about the NDP getting 7% in Thornhill? Really? Probably the worst riding in the province for the party demographically. In a two-horse race by-election, it's not unusual for a third place party to get squeezed out by their supporters voting strategically or staying at home.

[RogueBeaver]

Grenier also suggests a Blue-Orange battle outside Ottawa and TO if this pattern repeats itself in a GE. Wonder what a map would look like with OLP in 3rd and either opposition party in government.

[adma]

The weird thing is: even before the byelection, I was speculating on the possibility that Old NOTL would be the Liberals' strongest spot if not their *sole* strong spot (i.e. the most Wynne-compatible node)--and, lo and behold, I was *correct*...

Another interesting observation--the NDP swept Chippawa.

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to see Niagara Falls results broken down (as best possible) by the old town and township of Niagara, the old city of Niagara Falls, Stamford and Grantham townships etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

The weird thing is: even before the byelection, I was speculating on the possibility that Old NOTL would be the Liberals' strongest spot if not their *sole* strong spot (i.e. the most Wynne-compatible node)--and, lo and behold, I was *correct*...

Another interesting observation--the NDP swept Chippawa.

Does anyone know anything about Chippawa? I suppose it's a bit of a blue collar town.

[Krago]

Here are a comparison of the results by municipality for the Niagara Falls by-election:

Niagara-on-the-Lake
2014(By):  NDP 22%, PC 50%, Lib 24%, Oth 4%
2011(Gen):  NDP 12%, PC 44%, Lib 42%, Oth 2%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 21%, PC 29%, Lib 43%, Oth 7%

Niagara Falls
2014(By):  NDP 43%, PC 33%, Lib 22%, Oth 2%
2011(Gen):  NDP 25%, PC 31%, Lib 42%, Oth 2%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 47%, PC 13%, Lib 26%, Oth 14%

Fort Erie
2014(By):  NDP 44%, PC 42%, Lib 11%, Oth 3%
2011(Gen):  NDP 39%, PC 41%, Lib 19%, Oth 1%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 44%, PC 22%, Lib 26%, Oth 8%

[Holmes]

Yaas, four by-elections wins in two years. Horwath slayage. When will your fave? Let's bring on the general election already.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are a comparison of the results by municipality for the Niagara Falls by-election:

Niagara-on-the-Lake
2014(By):  NDP 22%, PC 50%, Lib 24%, Oth 4%
2011(Gen):  NDP 12%, PC 44%, Lib 42%, Oth 2%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 21%, PC 29%, Lib 43%, Oth 7%

Niagara Falls
2014(By):  NDP 43%, PC 33%, Lib 22%, Oth 2%
2011(Gen):  NDP 25%, PC 31%, Lib 42%, Oth 2%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 47%, PC 13%, Lib 26%, Oth 14%

Fort Erie
2014(By):  NDP 44%, PC 42%, Lib 11%, Oth 3%
2011(Gen):  NDP 39%, PC 41%, Lib 19%, Oth 1%
1990 (Gen):  NDP 44%, PC 22%, Lib 26%, Oth 8%

Remarkably similar to the 1990 election for the NDP.

[adma]

Does anyone know anything about Chippawa? I suppose it's a bit of a blue collar town.

Not really; more of a sleepy, comfy suburban/smalltownish satellite, though definitely not as affluent as NOTL.  James Cameron's hometown.  I might have expected more Tory headwind there...

[lilTommy]

The next Ontario election is going to see a Lot of open seats:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/28/veteran_liberal_and_tory_mpps_calling_it_quits.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed

Kitchener Centre - John Milloy OLP
Durham - John O'Toole PC
Newmarket-Aurora - Frank Klees PC
Sudbury - Rick Bartolucci OLP
Mississauga-Erindale - Harindar Takhar OLP
Kingston and the Islands - John Gerretsen OLP

[DL]

This has nothng to do with byelections, there are just people saying they won't run in the next election.

[Vega]

Pardon my ignorance (I'm rather new to Canadian politics); but is there anyway Macleod could be won by the Liberal Party or the NDP?

[Хahar 🤔]

Pardon my ignorance (I'm rather new to Canadian politics); but is there anyway Macleod could be won by the Liberal Party or the NDP?

no

[Njall]

Pardon my ignorance (I'm rather new to Canadian politics); but is there anyway Macleod could be won by the Liberal Party or the NDP?

no

This.  Macleod is literally one of the safest seats in the country for the Conservatives.  From 1988-2011, the lowest they've ever gotten there was 74.76% in 2004.  Back when the PC and reform/CA parties were separate, they would easily get a combined vote share of at least 80%.

The more interesting by-election will be Fort McMurray--Athabasca.  Granted, it's still very likely that it will stay conservative too, but the opposition parties do better up there.  And with the conservatives polling at or below 50% here recently, something could happen.

[lilTommy]

There is going to be a provincial by-election in NFLD in Virginia Waters, Kathy Dunderdale's old seat. Some big names have already lined up:

http://ntv.ca/sheilagh-oleary-cathy-bennett-step-forward-for-virginia-waters-by-election/

Sheilagh O'Leary - former city Councillor and mayoral candidate is running for the NDP (big score but not unsurprising, Mulcair endorsed her run for mayor)
Cathy Bennett - Businesswoman and Liberal Leadership candidate

Two names dropped for the PCs - Dany Breen a city councillor and a "well-know sports figure" Gord Dunphy

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP won't win. But great candidate choice.

[lilTommy]

Won't there be a General election in a year at any rate?

[DL]

Won't there be a General election in a year at any rate?

The last NL election was in Oct. 2011 and that might be postponed to Spring 2012 due to the scheduled federal election in Oct. 2011...the PCs have a huge majority in the NL legislature - I see no reason why they would be crazy enough to call an early election when they are  about to pick a new Premier and they would have every reason to let that person govern for as long as possible to erase the memory of Kathy Dunderdale.

I predict no NL election for another two years.

[Hash]

Won't there be a General election in a year at any rate?

The last NL election was in Oct. 2011 and that might be postponed to Spring 2012 due to the scheduled federal election in Oct. 2011...the PCs have a huge majority in the NL legislature - I see no reason why they would be crazy enough to call an early election when they are  about to pick a new Premier and they would have every reason to let that person govern for as long as possible to erase the memory of Kathy Dunderdale.

I predict no NL election for another two years.

Newfoundland's election law requires an election within twelve months of the election of a new PM when the PM resigns before the end of the third year of the legislature. This was discussed in another thread.

[DL]

Newfoundland's election law requires an election within twelve months of the election of a new PM when the PM resigns before the end of the third year of the legislature. This was discussed in another thread.

Sounds like a toothless fixed election date law. There is nothing any provincial legislature can do to interfere with the "reserve powers of the crown" (ie: that is a fancy way of saying that the Lieut. Gov. has to obey the advice of the Premier). If the new PC leader wants to wait until Oct. 2016 before calling an election - there is nothing to legally stop that - unless his or her own party revolted and voted non-confidence.

[RogueBeaver]

Which is why fixed election dates are stupid IMO, but in practice the new PC leader will probably follow it.

[DL]

I believe Quebec also has a fixed election date law that Marois seems ready to break tomorrow. Does anyone care?

[lilTommy]

NDP won't win. But great candidate choice.

Without Dunderdale, can we say that for sure? The NDP got 30% in 2011... but they've performed really weak in recent polling due both strong liberal numbers and internal fighting. Given that the candidate is a huge coup, add a few points for a personal vote right there, i think it will be more competitive then we think.

[Hatman 🍁]

I believe Quebec also has a fixed election date law that Marois seems ready to break tomorrow. Does anyone care?

You can't realistically expect fixed election dates to be followed during minority governments. Making it an issue is a huge red herring.

NDP won't win. But great candidate choice.

Without Dunderdale, can we say that for sure? The NDP got 30% in 2011... but they've performed really weak in recent polling due both strong liberal numbers and internal fighting. Given that the candidate is a huge coup, add a few points for a personal vote right there, i think it will be more competitive then we think.

The NDP infighting has destroyed the NL NDP. The NDP should be happy with a second place finish I think. The real question is whether or not the Liberals can win it.

[DL]

Keep that politics in Newfoundland is very very very personality based in way that is unique in Canada. I have no idea who will win the byelection in Virginia Waters but if Shelagh O'Leary is still personally very popular in an area where she had a lot of support municipally it could make all the difference. Parties in NL tend to often engage in fratricidal war, they eventually brush themselves off and move on...it wasn't that long ago that the NL Liberals were divided and in disarray - yet evn in those circumstances they managed to win some seats in 2011 for no other reason than running some locally popular candidates who won in some west coast ridings. who knows?