Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

I wish the City of St. John's had sent me the mayoral results by ward like I had asked, but I doubt O'Leary had won the north end of the city where the riding is. She was popular once upon a time, but I think publicly siding with the NDP in the last mayoral election may have hurt her.

[trebor204]

In 2011, 7 provinces and territories had elections within a month in the fall. These provinces (expect Yukon) have fixed election dates that will be tentatively scheduled for the fall of 2015, the same time as next federal election (Oct 19th)


NWT -  1st Monday in October, schedule for Oct 5, 2015
Saskatchewan - 1st Monday in November, schedule for Nov 2, 2015 or April 4, 2016
Manitoba - 1st Tuesday in October, scheduled for Oct 6, 2015 or April 19, 2016
Ontario - 1st Thursday in October, scheduled for Oct 1, 2015
PEI - 1st Monday in October, scheduled for Oct 5, 2015, COULD BE  moved to April, 2016
Newfoundland - 2nd Tuesday in October, was scheduled for October 13, 2015, now moved earlier due to resignation of the premier.

Right now, it looks like 3 provinces will have their elections moved from the fall of 2015 to April 2016.
Newfoundland will have an early election due the resignation of the premier.
Ontario has a minority government, and an election might be called soon.
I haven't read anything about NWT moving their election date.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final night of ballots for the Tory nomination in Macleod tonight

Candidates:
John Barlow - local journalist; provincial PC candidate in 2012 in Highwood (lost to WRP leader Daniellse Smith who is an eligible voter
Melissa Mathieson - research associate at the University of Calgary.
Phil Rowland - local rancher
Scott Wagner - local businessman


Guns are the biggest issue in this riding which would probably go Republican if it were in the US

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the race is between Mathieson and Barlow. Barlow is more moderate and Mathieson is on the right wing. Polls close in 45 minutes. Mathieson is just 24 years old btw.

[RogueBeaver]

Hoping for Mathieson.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah?



"C'mon Rob, let's go shoot us some commie towel heads!"

[Hatman 🍁]

Barlow wins There is hope for gun country

[Njall]

Barlow wins There is hope for gun country

It looks like the turnout in Okotoks was a pretty big factor in his victory; Okotoks is Barlow's home turf, and I remember reading that 1200 of the 1500 votes cast in the nomination were from there.

[MaxQue]

Barlow wins There is hope for gun country

Perhaps not. Despite people setting the race as "moderate vs. right-wing", it seems it finished as "local vs. outsider".

[Meeker]

This has nothing to do with any present by-election, but I just came across this again and I'm still laughing, eight years later: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMsqEph7a8I

[RogueBeaver]

Chow is resigning Trinity-Spadina tomorrow as she bids for the mayoralty. Harper will undoubtedly pair it with Macleod.

[Hatman 🍁]

3 Toronto lakefront by-elections in this parliament. (4 if you include Durham )

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP has nominated Lori McDaniel, a union rep and Suncor employee in Ft McMurray-Athabasca.

[lilTommy]

Christine Innes, Former Liberal candidate in Trinity-Spadina told "your not welcome here" to run for the nomination in the up coming by-election

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/13/justin-trudeau-christine-innes-tony-ianno_n_4958068.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

[RogueBeaver]

Open nominations are as much a joke as free social issue votes.

[RogueBeaver]

Whitby-Oshawa will soon be vacant now that Flaherty's resigned from Cabinet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now here is a good test of Trudeaumania. The Liberals need to win these mid-905 seats to form government.

[RogueBeaver]

Nevermind: an aide clarified that Flaherty will be staying on as an MP. I guess till the election, but rather strange for a former FM to sit on the backbench for 14-18 months.

[DL]

Nevermind: an aide clarified that Flaherty will be staying on as an MP. I guess till the election, but rather strange for a former FM to sit on the backbench for 14-18 months.

Paul Martin was a former PM and he kept his seat in Parliament right through the 2008 election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Virginia Waters by-election has been set for April 9

[adma]

Nevermind: an aide clarified that Flaherty will be staying on as an MP. I guess till the election, but rather strange for a former FM to sit on the backbench for 14-18 months.

Paul Martin was a former PM and he kept his seat in Parliament right through the 2008 election.

And John Turner right into 1993.

[RogueBeaver]

I knew those examples (and Clark before anyone brings that up), my opinion remains unchanged.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trinity-Spadina poll by RB's favourite pollster:

NDP: 46
Liberal: 32
Cons: 15
Grn: 6

Surprisingly, NDP voters from 2011 are the most likely to stay with the same party.

Also note the huge gender gap in the poll. NDP leads with women (55-25), but Liberals with men (40-37)!

[King of Kensington]

Trinity-Spadina should be a cakewalk for the NDP.

The real battle will be in 2015 when (in all likelihood) Joe Cressy and Chrystia Freeland face off against each other.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't be too over confident about Trinity-Spadina. The Liberals have been inching closer and closer to the NDP for a long time, (mostly provincially).  Admittedly though, I don't think Trudeau is getting as much traction in Downtown Toronto as he is in other parts of the country. In the Toronto Centre by-election, the Liberals only got a 2% swing towards them (from the NDP), which is nowhere near what they need to pick up Trinity-Spadina.

Despite the current strength of the provincial NDP right now, the party should be worried about losing it provincially. Wynne is very popular in Toronto right now, and the NDP strength seems to be outside the 416.