Canadian by-elections, 2014

[DL]

Trinity-Spadina poll by RB's favourite pollster:

NDP: 46
Liberal: 32
Cons: 15
Grn: 6

Surprisingly, NDP voters from 2011 are the most likely to stay with the same party.

Also note the huge gender gap in the poll. NDP leads with women (55-25), but Liberals with men (40-37)!

Its worth noting that the Forum poll was conducted over a week ago on March 13 - why they sat on it for so long is a bit of a mystery - I point this out because that means that this poll didn't even take into account a weeks worth of bad publicity about Justin Trudeau liquidating Christine Innes who was all set to run for the Liberals here. In the end its still early days - but seeing poll numbers like this will make any prospective Liberal candidate think long and hard about running and likely losing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Linda Jeffrey (Ontario cabinet minister, MPP for Brampton-Springdale) resigned to run for mayor of Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Joe Cressy is the only NDP candidate to come forward for the nomination in Trinity-Spadia, so he's going to win by acclaimation.

I must say I'm disappointed it'll be uncontested, but it's clear the party wants Cressy as the candidate.

[DL]

Actually from what I've heard "the party" wanted a contested nomination but Cressy (to his credit) did a good job of making himself look unbeatable and no one wanted to run against him and lose. So it goes.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's rather unfortunate. Doesn't Barry Weisleder live in Trinity-Spadina? He should've run. It would've been very amusing.

[lilTommy]

That's rather unfortunate. Doesn't Barry Weisleder live in Trinity-Spadina? He should've run. It would've been very amusing.

... Not funny
I was hoping that a women and someone from a visible community would step forward, I hate to see the white-male'ing of the caucus, but what can ya do. Cressy has a very good resume and is definitely from the social justice, activist side of the party.
I think the hoopla over Trudeau stepping in and back-tracking on his promise to an open nomination can only help the NDP. It will be interesting to see how the vote will pan without a Chow and Innes/Ianno battle.

[DL]

That's rather unfortunate. Doesn't Barry Weisleder live in Trinity-Spadina? He should've run. It would've been very amusing.

He actually does not live in Trinity-Spadina and in any case he would probably never get past the vetting process to be allowed to run. He was already rejected by the ONDP as a candidate in Thornhill in 2011

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose we can't have a more open process until the other parties do. We can't have a monopoly on all the crazies. But in a fair world, Barry would be able to run. I wouldn't support him obviously, but he should have the right to do so.

[RogueBeaver]

Karygiannis is resigning Scarborough-Agincourt to run for TO council.

[Citizen Hats]

Karygiannis is resigning Scarborough-Agincourt to run for TO council.

Good Riddance.  

Now Toronto City Council will be stuck with him *and* Doug Ford. Karygiannis a bully and there is no place in the future of the Liberal Party for people who operate like him

[adma]

Now Toronto City Council will be stuck with him *and* Doug Ford.

Doug Ford's not running again.

[lilTommy]

Karygiannis is resigning Scarborough-Agincourt to run for TO council.

Good Riddance.  

Now Toronto City Council will be stuck with him *and* Doug Ford. Karygiannis a bully and there is no place in the future of the Liberal Party for people who operate like him

Wrong place for this I know, but... This means hes going up against (unless either of the Councillors is not running again) Mike Del Grande(ward 39) or Norm Kelly (40), both are conservatives but not fools like Ford or Mammoliti; I'd rather Kelly and Del Grande win then Karygiannis.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe the riding can finally be represented by an Asian for once.

[lilTommy]

Linda Jeffrey (Ontario cabinet minister, MPP for Brampton-Springdale) resigned to run for mayor of Brampton.

The NDP already have a candidate nominated, as of the 3/25, which to me seems very quick! Gurpreet Dhillon a "Community activist and local basketball star (I thought that comment was hilarious for some reason) and as served on the Toronto Police South Asian Consultative."
It looks like the NDP has seen the success of Jagmeet and it looks to be trying to copy that type of candidate... youth/community focused experience, from the sikh community, young and attractive.
Anyone know if Brampton-Springdale has any demographic advantage for the NDP or any other party?
I think the PCs are going with the 2012 nominated candidate Pam Hundal, who I believe is still a party Vice President.

[lilTommy]

Maybe the riding can finally be represented by an Asian for once.

Looking at who's running and declared so far, Doubt it...
Sherene Shaw who was black represented ward 39 until 2003 when Del Grande won. Kelly's been there since 94, before that he was a Liberal MP (Really? Liberal, meh guess I can see that lol). The  closest was Soo Wong who was the School board trustee for Scarborough-Agincourt and now is the Liberal MPP

[Hifly]

Are there any other socially conservative liberals in the riding who can replace Karygiannis?

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe the riding can finally be represented by an Asian for once.

Looking at who's running and declared so far, Doubt it...
Sherene Shaw who was black represented ward 39 until 2003 when Del Grande won. Kelly's been there since 94, before that he was a Liberal MP (Really? Liberal, meh guess I can see that lol). The  closest was Soo Wong who was the School board trustee for Scarborough-Agincourt and now is the Liberal MPP

Geez. The riding is nearly half (47%) Chinese! Too bad. FTR, the riding is only 21% White.

As for Brampton-Springdale, it would be a harder fight for the NDP than Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

Compare

Bramtpon-Springdale:

Sikhs: 19%
South Asians: 38%
Avg. household income: $92K

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Sikhs: 22%
South Asians: 45%
Avg. household income: $84K

Very similar yes, but not "good enough"

[MaxQue]

Are there any other socially conservative liberals in the riding who can replace Karygiannis?

I doubt there is much social conservatives left in the Liberal Party. Trudeau isn't attractive to them.

[RogueBeaver]

Are there any other socially conservative liberals in the riding who can replace Karygiannis?

I doubt there is much social conservatives left in the Liberal Party. Trudeau isn't attractive to them.

Who can forget the "fundamental right" of abortion. More distantly, as we know, the leader's expanded appointment power was designed to block pro-lifers and promote affirmative action.

[Hatman 🍁]

I never really understood why the Liberals had socially conservative MPs. (It's not like the Liberals have ever been a populist/communitarian party, so if you're conservative economically and socially, what are you doing in the Liberal Party) I guess having a bunch in Scarborough made some sense, due to the minorities there who voted Liberal. 

[adma]

Wrong place for this I know, but... This means hes going up against (unless either of the Councillors is not running again) Mike Del Grande(ward 39) or Norm Kelly (40), both are conservatives but not fools like Ford or Mammoliti; I'd rather Kelly and Del Grande win then Karygiannis.

Del Grande's retiring.  Karygiannis is practically his "endorsed" replacement.

[adma]

As for Brampton-Springdale, it would be a harder fight for the NDP than Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

Compare

Bramtpon-Springdale:

Sikhs: 19%
South Asians: 38%
Avg. household income: $92K

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Sikhs: 22%
South Asians: 45%
Avg. household income: $84K

Very similar yes, but not "good enough"

Still, who  knows.  It's worth noting that in 2004 and residually in 2006 (thanks to a schism in the local Grit camp due to Ruby Dhalla's "appointment" as candidate), this was actually the *best* federal NDP seat in the 905 belt save Oshawa...

[DC Al Fine]

I never really understood why the Liberals had socially conservative MPs. (It's not like the Liberals have ever been a populist/communitarian party, so if you're conservative economically and socially, what are you doing in the Liberal Party) I guess having a bunch in Scarborough made some sense, due to the minorities there who voted Liberal. 

There are a lot of those people still walking the Earth who's voting habits were formed during the WASP/Non-WASP alignment. Ex: My late Catholic-born grandfather, was even more socially conservative than I am, but voted Liberal all his life. That vote stopped making sense around... 1968 maybe?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

[Citizen Hats]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

"Social issues" were simply a different set of issue cleavages before the 1960s. LGBT issues or abortion were simply not issues, versus temperance or British-imperialism which cut 'progress' in different ways