Canadian by-elections, 2014
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2014  (Read 59684 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #275 on: April 17, 2014, 06:10:23 PM »

Getting messy. A state of electoral urgency has been declared there and in Scarborough. Riding association wasn't consulted, national brass say they don't share the traffic light info. Finally there's another candidate in: Ryan Davey, husband of riding association president Julia Metus.
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lol-i-wear-hats
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« Reply #276 on: April 17, 2014, 07:11:17 PM »

Should the NDP be happy about Vaughan's candidacy?

Me thinks no. The kinds of Liberals which really dislike Vaughn are likely to be the kinds that don't tend to be Liberal voters in Trinity Spadina.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #277 on: April 17, 2014, 07:13:45 PM »

I doubt than his anti bar crusade will be popular with young inhabitants.
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adma
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« Reply #278 on: April 17, 2014, 07:40:50 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2014, 07:42:37 PM by adma »

I doubt than his anti bar crusade will be popular with young inhabitants.

Methinks the kinds of "young inhabitants" who are cheesed off at said "crusade" are more likely to be 905ers than locals.

Or, for that matter, the cheesed-off are more likely to be bar owners projecting their own cheesed-offness upon the clientele (and pretending said clientele is more "local" than it is, to boot)
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lol-i-wear-hats
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« Reply #279 on: April 17, 2014, 08:04:57 PM »

I doubt than his anti bar crusade will be popular with young inhabitants.

Methinks the kinds of "young inhabitants" who are cheesed off at said "crusade" are more likely to be 905ers than locals.

Or, for that matter, the cheesed-off are more likely to be bar owners projecting their own cheesed-offness upon the clientele (and pretending said clientele is more "local" than it is, to boot)

Could some one help me with this issue? Are these 'bars' in question 'nightclubs'?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #280 on: April 17, 2014, 08:41:08 PM »

If you're young and you live in a Trinity-Spadina condo, you live there to be close to the night life, or at least you go there being tolerant of it.
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« Reply #281 on: April 17, 2014, 09:00:17 PM »

Sure, but those nightlives might be completely different things. Taking what I know locally, If I lived in Vancouver Centre, rather than East, It would be because of the nightlife available, but it sure as heck wouldn't be the nightlife on the Granville Strip, where public policy has located most of the clubbing places. It would be for all the bars and clubs available in the riding that aren't thickly populated with tasteless D-bags. If that's what Vaughn is taking about, I'm much more sympathetic (so someone fill me in)
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #282 on: April 17, 2014, 09:14:57 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2014, 09:17:13 PM by Linus Van Pelt »

Sure, but those nightlives might be completely different things. Taking what I know locally, If I lived in Vancouver Centre, rather than East, It would be because of the nightlife available, but it sure as heck wouldn't be the nightlife on the Granville Strip, where public policy has located most of the clubbing places. It would be for all the bars and clubs available in the riding that aren't thickly populated with tasteless D-bags. If that's what Vaughn is taking about, I'm much more sympathetic (so someone fill me in)

Basically, yes.

Edit: just to add - this nightclub business is not really going to be a large issue in a federal by-election. The main point is that Vaughan is a well-known councillor on the anti-Ford left side of council, so he will be a tough candidate for the NDP to take on.
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« Reply #283 on: April 17, 2014, 09:38:05 PM »

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #284 on: April 17, 2014, 09:39:08 PM »

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #285 on: April 17, 2014, 09:43:33 PM »

The wards haven't changed since 2000, so they're actually still based on the ridings from the 1996 representation order.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #286 on: April 17, 2014, 11:53:39 PM »

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.

Probably. They're done more haphazardly in Ontario, we don't change them every 4 years like in Quebec.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #287 on: April 17, 2014, 11:55:07 PM »

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.

Probably. They're done more haphazardly in Ontario, we don't change them every 4 years like in Quebec.

We don't change them every 4 years. Yes, they must be reviewed every 4 years, but no change is usually done if the numbers are good enough. We also had cases where the city kept its map, but it was refused by Elections Quebec.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #288 on: April 17, 2014, 11:57:58 PM »

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.

Probably. They're done more haphazardly in Ontario, we don't change them every 4 years like in Quebec.

We don't change them every 4 years. Yes, they must be reviewed every 4 years, but no change is usually done if the numbers are good enough. We also had cases where the city kept its map, but it was refused by Elections Quebec.


OK, a review must happen every 4 years. That doesn't happen in Ontario. Ottawa last changed its boundaries in 2006, and Toronto in 2000.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #289 on: April 18, 2014, 12:05:51 AM »

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.

Probably. They're done more haphazardly in Ontario, we don't change them every 4 years like in Quebec.

We don't change them every 4 years. Yes, they must be reviewed every 4 years, but no change is usually done if the numbers are good enough. We also had cases where the city kept its map, but it was refused by Elections Quebec.


OK, a review must happen every 4 years. That doesn't happen in Ontario. Ottawa last changed its boundaries in 2006, and Toronto in 2000.

Reviews isn't an appropriate word. Last time, the "review" was the city passing a resolution adopting 2009 map for 2013, without any consultation or anything similar. It was a simple procedural move noticed by no one.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #290 on: April 18, 2014, 10:32:55 PM »

"Open" nominations FTW. (H/T Star)

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #291 on: April 22, 2014, 01:11:56 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2014, 11:34:02 AM by King of Kensington »

Should the NDP be happy about Vaughan's candidacy?

No because they're likely to get their worst result since 1993.  Adam Vaughan is a big score for the Liberals.

It's an odd fit.  Until April 17 he was more popular with New Democrats than with Liberals.  Vaughan had endorsed lots of NDPers for office (Cathy Crowe, Kristyn Wong-Tam, Jonah Schein, Rosario Marchese and Peggy Nash's leadership bid) and his endorsement of Smitherman was a reluctant one to stop Ford.  His voting record is one of the most left-wing on council.  Despite his uptown Liberal roots he votes like a downtown New Democrat.

However to the general electorate he looks good, having been the most high profile opponent of Ford on council in the riding where Ford had his worst showing in 2010.  The old Tony Ianno constituency has evaporated and I think Christine Innes and her husband will be a minor nuisance that will have little impact on the result.  The Liberals who hate Vaughan (and I've met them)...will they really sit it out or do they want their only shot of winning?  People who are broadly progressive and soft NDPers will back Vaughan.  Joe Cressy will just get the hyper-partisan NDPers.  

It just bids terribly for the NDP that some apparatchik was acclaimed.  If they want to be a big tent "progressive" party they needed to reach out not keep it within the "extended family." And the narrative will be terrible: how can the NDP present themselves as the alternative to Harper when they lose to the Liberals in Trinity-Spadina?  Trinity-Spadina is also a "prestige" riding with a lot of academics and opinion leaders.

The NDP will have to come up with a clever "it was a vote for Adam Vaughan not for the Liberals" narrative when they get slaughtered in the by-election.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #292 on: April 22, 2014, 01:32:51 AM »

That post is probably the worst Liberal hackness piece I ever read.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #293 on: April 22, 2014, 02:01:00 AM »

Go through my posting history.  If you think I'm a "Liberal hack" then you're mistaken.

I live in Trinity-Spadina.  Vaughan is massively popular here.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #294 on: April 22, 2014, 07:13:11 AM »

That post is probably the worst Liberal hackness piece I ever read.

I've never read anything by KoK that was Liberal hackery before. So if it is Liberal hackery, he must be a recent convert to Trudeaumania.
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DL
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« Reply #295 on: April 22, 2014, 10:45:40 AM »

All these Cassandras are suddenly whining about the NDP nominating a so-called insider in Joe Cressy. Well it has been the worst kept secret in Toronto for the last year that there would be vacancy and ANYONE could have been out there laying groundwork to get the NDP nomination. All these back-seat drivers complain but none of them were willing to step up to the plate themselves. Joe Cressy worked hard to build support among party members in the riding - and anyone else was free to do the same. If everyone else was too lazy to do that - that is their problem.

I will wait and see what happens in the campaign - there are a lot of "moving parts" and for the talk Vaughan's "machine" - he essentially had no opposition in 2010 - so I'm not sure that he has much of an actual machine - also people are now running with parties and that has a big impact on how people vote as well - for example vaughan will now have to defend Trudeau's refusal to cooperate with the NDP in order to remove Harper after the 2015 election
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #296 on: April 22, 2014, 11:23:12 AM »

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 
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lilTommy
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« Reply #297 on: April 22, 2014, 12:51:21 PM »

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 


... This is how i feel exactly... It just means the NDP now has to work that much harder, we do like to make a big deal about campaigning as the underdog
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lol-i-wear-hats
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« Reply #298 on: April 22, 2014, 01:59:04 PM »

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 


... This is how i feel exactly... It just means the NDP now has to work that much harder, we do like to make a big deal about campaigning as the underdog

They seem to not be on that shtick anymore. All the NDP branded material I've seen lately predominately says 'Official Opposition' underneath the party name, in case anyone forgot
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #299 on: April 22, 2014, 02:00:33 PM »

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 


... This is how i feel exactly... It just means the NDP now has to work that much harder, we do like to make a big deal about campaigning as the underdog

They seem to not be on that shtick anymore. All the NDP branded material I've seen lately predominately says 'Official Opposition' underneath the party name, in case anyone forgot

Perhaps the NDP can play both cards, as they both would be true. "We're the official opposition! But, because of Trudeau, we're also the underdogs!"
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