Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Citizen Hats]

Moving to the US would be a deal breaker for any relationship I'm in (sorry, Holmes). As liberal as parts of California are, even with Tim Hudak as Premier, Ontario would be a better place. At least we'd still have universal health care.

Oh, and the Liberals winning Trinity-Spadina may be awful, but not quite as awful as many California Democrats.

I suppose if you're wealthy though, California is a better place to go.

Most jobs come with health insurance. Taxes are lower, prices are lower, and the beer is cheaper and more delicious, and incomes are higher.  That being said, it sucks to be poor but many Canadians think the US is much worse than it is. 

I lived in Monterey for 17 years.  Decent place

[Hatman 🍁]

Moving to the US would be a deal breaker for any relationship I'm in (sorry, Holmes). As liberal as parts of California are, even with Tim Hudak as Premier, Ontario would be a better place. At least we'd still have universal health care.

Oh, and the Liberals winning Trinity-Spadina may be awful, but not quite as awful as many California Democrats.

I suppose if you're wealthy though, California is a better place to go.

Most jobs come with health insurance. Taxes are lower, prices are lower, and the beer is cheaper and more delicious, and incomes are higher.  That being said, it sucks to be poor but many Canadians think the US is much worse than it is. 

I lived in Monterey for 17 years.  Decent place

I'm sure you read that report that says our incomes are now higher than the US?

But yeah, if you're rich, it's great to live in the US. But is it wrong to rate a country by how its poor are?

[Citizen Hats]

Moving to the US would be a deal breaker for any relationship I'm in (sorry, Holmes). As liberal as parts of California are, even with Tim Hudak as Premier, Ontario would be a better place. At least we'd still have universal health care.

Oh, and the Liberals winning Trinity-Spadina may be awful, but not quite as awful as many California Democrats.

I suppose if you're wealthy though, California is a better place to go.

Most jobs come with health insurance. Taxes are lower, prices are lower, and the beer is cheaper and more delicious, and incomes are higher.  That being said, it sucks to be poor but many Canadians think the US is much worse than it is. 

I lived in Monterey for 17 years.  Decent place

I'm sure you read that report that says our incomes are now higher than the US?

But yeah, if you're rich, it's great to live in the US. But is it wrong to rate a country by how its poor are?

I didn't say that it was. Firstly, you're insisting on a rich-poor dichotomy. Secondly, we're talking about quality of life. If you're not poor then you don't have to deal with the problems of poor people. Most Canadian people aren't poor and have marketable skills, and therefore this isn't a quality of life issue for them.  We aren't rating a country holistically ,rather what the prospects are for moving there.

[Holmes]

Moving to the US would be a deal breaker for any relationship I'm in (sorry, Holmes). As liberal as parts of California are, even with Tim Hudak as Premier, Ontario would be a better place. At least we'd still have universal health care.

Oh, and the Liberals winning Trinity-Spadina may be awful, but not quite as awful as many California Democrats.

I suppose if you're wealthy though, California is a better place to go.

Most jobs come with health insurance. Taxes are lower, prices are lower, and the beer is cheaper and more delicious, and incomes are higher.  That being said, it sucks to be poor but many Canadians think the US is much worse than it is.  

I lived in Monterey for 17 years.  Decent place

Neat, I'll be living in Santa Cruz. Well, around there. Probably Watsonville, or maybe Soquel or Capitola... depends where we can get a good apartment.

I'll miss my home of Ontario, don't get me wrong. It'll always be my home. Best province there is. I'm aware that Canada has more safety nets but I can't live my life where it's safe rather than with who and where I want to be. I'm not happy here anymore and it's a risk I want to take. But this is a whole different conversation altogether now.

[Citizen Hats]

Oh? wow, my part of the state definitely. I was actually out in Prunedale, small area south of Watsonville

The Santa Cruz-Aptos belt is quite nice, though a bit pricely. Lots of things to do in Santa Cruz.  West Coast weather's kinda screwy for those used to a continental climate, but there's usually good weather just over the mountains.  There's good hiking in the Santa Cruz mountains and other areas, and the Monterey Bay Acquarium, Big Sur, San Francisco, and San Jose are only short drives away

Santa Cruz is definitely among the more politically left parts of the state.

[Hash]

Keep it on topic kids.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Scarborough-Agincourt: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/june-30-federal-by-election-profiles.html

[RogueBeaver]

Globe on Scarborough.

[King of Kensington]

3-way race in Scarborough-Agincourt?  No.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Globe and Mail

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of Trinity-Spadina: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/june-30-federal-by-election-profiles_24.html

[adma]

3-way race in Scarborough-Agincourt?  No.

But if it *is* a race, one noteworthy thing to consider is that in the provincial-election preliminary numbers, the PCs got their highest 416 share *here* (yes, even higher than Doug Holyday)

[Hatman 🍁]

A two way race? Perhaps. A three way race? No chance.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum polls:

Scarborough-Agincourt: Lib 52, Cons 36, NDP 8 (OH WOW 3 WAY RACE!)
Trinity-Spadina: Lib 52, NDP 34, Cons 12
Fort McMurray-Athabasca: N/A (not enough sample)
Macleod: Cons 61, NDP 11, Lib 11

[lilTommy]

Forum polls:

Scarborough-Agincourt: Lib 52, Cons 36, NDP 8 (OH WOW 3 WAY RACE!)
Trinity-Spadina: Lib 52, NDP 34, Cons 12
Fort McMurray-Athabasca: N/A (not enough sample)
Macleod: Cons 61, NDP 11, Lib 11

I think it will be closer in TS then the polls indicate (I hope); there is no drive to vote against something, as there was provincially (stop Hudak campaign was a huge success in TO) so voter turnout is going to be low, plus fatigue and confusion. Also there is no progressive backlash against the NDP now, the best example is the likes of Judy Rebick who was one of those dissident urban progressives who wrote the letter to Horwath is supporting Cressy and the NDP who are running a rather left of centre campaign here.
Vaughan was a score for the Liberals and this is his to lose and the NDP are the underdog now; it will be who has the best ground game to get their voters out, the problem with polls is that they don't actually vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Forum's poll of Trinity-Spadina during the provincial election said it was going to be close, and it wasn't. So, it's possible the Liberals will win by an even larger margin.

[lilTommy]

Well, Forum's poll of Trinity-Spadina during the provincial election said it was going to be close, and it wasn't. So, it's possible the Liberals will win by an even larger margin.

god help us, the Liberals here don't need a bigger ego

[DL]

Apparently in the advance polls turnout was low to the point of being non-existent in the condos...which is good since that is where a lot of Liberal support is - apparently the NDP has a lot of identified votes in that 7,000 who voted advance (possibly a majority) and it goes without saying that turnout on e-day June 30 promises to be ridiculously low - so who knows. Remember how Forum kept showing these big Liberal leads in Brandon-Souris and then it "reverted to the mean" and stayed Conservative!

[Citizen Hats]

Is that internal data? , and secondly, Brandon Souris had a lot of trouble because rural route addresses are difficult to survey

[DL]

Is that internal data? , and secondly, Brandon Souris had a lot of trouble because rural route addresses are difficult to survey

How so? This is a phone survey not a door to door survey - someone living on a farm has a listed phone number just like someone in the middle of Brandon

[Citizen Hats]

From what I understand, it's difficult to tie those phone numbers to addresses in specific ridings

[Hatman 🍁]

Possibly. They should have at least weighted by region, which they probably didn't.

[DL]

From what I understand, it's difficult to tie those phone numbers to addresses in specific ridings

That's bullsh**t - samples of phone numbers can be bought by postal code and by federal electoral district...in any case most of the non-Brandon part of Brandon-Souris would be people living in smaller towns outside Brandon - as opposed to people living on ranches.

A bigger problem is the fact that in an inner city riding like Trinity-Spadina with a very young population - it is impossible to get any riding specific cell phone sample.

[Citizen Hats]

From what I understand, it's difficult to tie those phone numbers to addresses in specific ridings

That's bullsh**t - samples of phone numbers can be bought by postal code and by federal electoral district...in any case most of the non-Brandon part of Brandon-Souris would be people living in smaller towns outside Brandon - as opposed to people living on ranches.

A bigger problem is the fact that in an inner city riding like Trinity-Spadina with a very young population - it is impossible to get any riding specific cell phone sample.

If it's bullsh**t, you should give Forum and several political parties a ring. They'd love to know.

Furthermore the no-landline-concerns never seem to pan out.  Perhaps such concerns tend to be cancelled out by their rather low turnout rates. In a byelection, I'd be shocked if they mattered much.

[DL]

Furthermore the no-landline-concerns never seem to pan out.  Perhaps such concerns tend to be cancelled out by their rather low turnout rates.

Except that the IVR polls done by Ekos and Forum and Campaign Research at the end of the ontario election campaign all significantly underestimated NDP support and the excuse being given by Ekos is that this is because of undersampling of people who only have cell phones...now over 20% of the electorate