Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

The Sun's "endorsement" of Cressy is probably terrible news. Urban progressives loathe the Sun, so their endorsement can only hurt Cressy's chances.

First of all "the Sun" didn't endorse Cressy - one of their columnists did. Actually that makes two columnists at the Sun who have endorsed Cressy - Christina Blizzard and Warren Kinsella. The Blizzard endorsement came out today - meaning that no "urban progressive" will even be aware of it since they don't read the Sun in the first place and the byelection is tomorrow. There are more people than you think in Trinity-Spadina who do read the Sun...and while Blizzard is a rightwing Tory and Kinsella is a Liberal - they both know that Joe Cressy is a great guy and Adam Vaughan is - put a charitably - a prick!

I put 'endorsement' in quotes for a reason.

[DL]

King of Kensington has got it spot-on. The man isn't a party member.  

Do you have access to Liberal party membership roles to prove that Warren Kinsella is not a member?

[Citizen Hats]

Let's just say that I was told by someone who would know

[King of Kensington]

If I'm correct, Trinity-Spadina holds the distinction of having the highest average income of NDP-held ridings.  Or...did.  Vaughan will almost certainly take it and besides that this distinction will be moot as the riding will be cut in half for the next general election.

[Citizen Hats]

If I'm correct, Trinity-Spadina holds the distinction of having the highest average income of NDP-held ridings.  Or...did.  Vaughan will almost certainly take it and besides that this distinction will be moot as the riding will be cut in half for the next general election.

Interestingly enough, it appears both those halves went to the OLP when results are redistributed

[cp]

Forum out. My reaction: invoke Wells' First Rule.

TS: 45% (-7), 35% (+1), 11% (-1), 9% (+7)

SA: 48% (-4%), 37% (+1), 10% (+2),

M: 54% (-7), 16% (+5), 4 (-7%), 16% (+7)

FMA: 41%, 33%, 13%.

Hmm, the first three seem about right but after Brandon-Souris I'm skeptical about any reports of Liberal strength in the West being anything but exaggerated. That said, the polls showing a Liberal victory in B-S came out a good week or two before the election date, giving time for the Tories to mount an effective defense. Maybe this time it was under the radar for too long.

What time do the polls close? When can we expect results?

[lilTommy]

Any doom on the NDP's part is mitigated by Adam Vaughan being a ten-ton elephant of a Liberal candidate to be running against.  They'll be looking more at reducing the provincial margin to whatever palpable degree...

Yup.  If Cressy pulls off say, 40% of the vote, that will be considered a great victory.

The vote should be higher then the provincial, going by signs south of queen, Cressy has more then Marchese did. Signs don't vote but as I mentioned before this is not the provincial election and the "mood" is different towards the NDP.
I think a 40% is where the NDP will be, I feel it will be like a 2004 or 2000 vote split... but I'm still keeping my hopes up for a 2006 NDP style win (i'm leaving at lunch to go vote)

The Liberals will win on a Vaughan vote, this will be his win. They have little to no policy and Adam is campaigning like this is a municipal race (Housing, transit... ironic since the Liberals killed national housing) but he's avoid big national issues.
Cressy btw is only 29, politically inexperienced as a candidate, so any result over 30% will be a good one for him, unfortunately if he runs in 2015 he will likely run against Freeland and the Rosedale crowd (McQuaig has called dibs on Spadina-Fort York)

[DL]

McQuaig is running in Toronto Centre in 2015 which becomes way more winnable with Rosedale lopped off

[RogueBeaver]

CP: polls close at 2130 ET.

[lilTommy]

McQuaig is running in Toronto Centre in 2015 which becomes way more winnable with Rosedale lopped off

No, she's going to run in Spadina-Fort York, not sure who will run in TC, maybe Jennifer Howllett again? http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/11/27/thomas_mulcair_touts_linda_mcquaig_for_new_waterfront_riding.html

Oh also, NOW Toronto's Michael Howllett http://www.joecressy.ca/michael-hollett-endorses-joe-cressy - can't find the link from NOW though?

[DL]

That was a mistake by Mulcair - Linda McQuaig held an event where she declared her intention to run in Toronto Centre in 2015 NOT Spadina-Fort York. Supposedly Jennifer Hollett will run in Spadina-Fort York

[lilTommy]

That was a mistake by Mulcair - Linda McQuaig held an event where she declared her intention to run in Toronto Centre in 2015 NOT Spadina-Fort York. Supposedly Jennifer Hollett will run in Spadina-Fort York

Really? OK my mistake if that's the case, last I heard it was the reverse I'd be happy with either running in Spadina-Fort York which will be my new riding. Perhaps Howllett would appeal more to the younger-new-yuppie-hipstery, more well off waterfront-Queen West riding?

[Hatman 🍁]

Profile of Macleod: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/06/june-30-federal-by-election-profiles_30.html

[MaxQue]

Which hour the polls close?

[RogueBeaver]

9:30 for Toronto. No idea for Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

9:30 Eastern for all of them! It's in my blog, guys

[lilTommy]

9:30 Eastern for all of them! It's in my blog, guys

Isn't that rather early for the Alberta ridings?... that's what 7:30, well if you weren't going to get low voter turnout the monday of a long wknd (with tmr as a holiday) you are now closing the polls 2hrs earlier then a regular election, well done

[Citizen Hats]

[Citizen Hats]

[Hatman 🍁]

9:30 Eastern for all of them! It's in my blog, guys

Isn't that rather early for the Alberta ridings?... that's what 7:30, well if you weren't going to get low voter turnout the monday of a long wknd (with tmr as a holiday) you are now closing the polls 2hrs earlier then a regular election, well done

Alberta and Ontario always have the same poll closing times in federal elections. Elections Canada tries to synchronize the provinces as much as possible to minimize people leaking the results.

[Citizen Hats]

[King of Kensington]

Nicely done!  Of course Buddhists overlap with the Chinese population significantly but even within these Chinese areas Buddhists are more concentrated (plus there's that tract in the far southwest, an offshoot presumably of Parkdale Tibetans).

Jews are concentrated in the northern part of the riding, in the Annex area.  Fittingly the JCC is located at Bloor and Spadina.

Muslims are mostly in the south end, with notable concentrations in the Discovery District and Alexandra Park.

[lilTommy]

Nicely done!  Of course Buddhists overlap with the Chinese population significantly but even within these Chinese areas Buddhists are more concentrated (plus there's that tract in the far southwest, an offshoot presumably of Parkdale Tibetans).

Jews are concentrated in the northern part of the riding, in the Annex area.  Fittingly the JCC is located at Bloor and Spadina.

Muslims are mostly in the south end, with notable concentrations in the Discovery District and Alexandra Park.

The High concentration of Catholics in the west, along the strip west Bathurst matches with the Portuguese and Italian communities concentration not surprisingly

Higher concentration of Muslims in the SE probably due to that area being closest to Regent Park, and generally just the DT mix of apartments and rentals I would think

[King of Kensington]

Italian speakers (not mapped) have a bit of a different concentration than Portuguese, more in the northwest while Portuguese are more at the far west side. But yes both of the two big Catholic groups are west of Bathurst, though their numbers are a lot smaller than they used to be.

Re: Muslims, also there's a fair sized Somali population in Alexandra Park.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls have closed, folks!