Canadian by-elections, 2014

[trebor204]

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Mapping it is going to be a nightmare. Even with GIS help.

I did a quick check comparing poll location for Trinity Spadina from 2011 election to the by-election. It looks like they have used the same poll divisions.  For example Toronto Island used poll #181 for both elections. They might have more splits. ie (120A, 120B.)  Normally a poll will be spilt by last name. 120A - A-M & 120B N-Z.

[MaxQue]

First complete results from a riding, Scarborough-Agincourt.

Arnold Chan (Liberal): 12829 votes (59.3%)
Trevor Ellis (Conservative): 6344 votes (29.3%)
Elizabeth Ying Long (NDP): 1844 votes (8.5%)
Kevin Clarke (Independent): 315 votes (1.5%)
Shahbaz Mir (Green): 307 votes (1.4%)

Turnout: 29%

[Citizen Hats]

when do the poll-by-polls usually come out federal elections?

[MaxQue]

Trinity-Spadina

Adam Vaughan (Liberal): 18434 votes (53.4%)
Joe Cressy (NDP): 11823 votes (34.3%)
Benjamin Sharma (Conservative): 2000 votes (5.8%)
Camille Labchuk (Green): 1919 votes (5.6%)
Linda Groce-Gibbons (Christian Heritage): 174 votes (0.5%)
John "The Engineer" Turmel (Independent): 141 votes (0.4%)

Turnout: 32%

[Citizen Hats]

I'm surprised no one has made hay of the fact the Liberals have had three fools-gold byelections in the Prairie Provinces this parliament, Calgary Centre, Brandon-Souris, and now Fort MacMurray Athabasca

[cp]

Indeed. They seemed to be getting closer and closer (4%/~1200 votes in CC, 2%/~400 votes in B-S) but in FM-A they've dropped back a bit (11%/~1500 votes).

In fairness, CC and B-S had some unique circumstances that might have made them closer than usual - Tory infighting, and a strong Green candidate in CC that probably split the vote.

Looking at it that way, maybe FM-A was the first accurate gauge of how well the Liberals can expect to do in the Tory heartland when facing a party that hasn't shot itself in the foot? If so, it's still better than they used to do in the 90s and 00s.

I wonder how Whitby-Oshawa will turn out. It's not the Tory heartland by any definition, but could the Liberals take it absent a self-inflicted Tory meltdown?

[King of Kensington]

I think sympathy for Jim Flaherty and Christine Elliott will keep it in the Tory camp.  You can really see the impact of the Flaherty factor in the provincial election where the Tories got turfed in the pretty conservative nearby seats of Northumberland and Durham (on paper more Tory-leaning than Whitby-Oshawa), as well as in conservative-populist working class Oshawa which went NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

when do the poll-by-polls usually come out federal elections?

In a few months.

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Mapping it is going to be a nightmare. Even with GIS help.

I did a quick check comparing poll location for Trinity Spadina from 2011 election to the by-election. It looks like they have used the same poll divisions.  For example Toronto Island used poll #181 for both elections. They might have more splits. ie (120A, 120B.)  Normally a poll will be spilt by last name. 120A - A-M & 120B N-Z.

They don't normally re-draw the map for by-elections, so you're probably right. I know when I was looking up polls for my blog post that they had not changed either.

[cp]

I think sympathy for Jim Flaherty and Christine Elliott will keep it in the Tory camp.  You can really see the impact of the Flaherty factor in the provincial election where the Tories got turfed in the pretty conservative nearby seats of Northumberland and Durham (on paper more Tory-leaning than Whitby-Oshawa), as well as in conservative-populist working class Oshawa which went NDP.

True, although Elliott's vote share was down noticeably in 2014 and she won't be the one on the ballot. I think the only way the Liberals win in Whitby (without an unforced error by the Tories) is to get an amazing candidate akin to Vaughan in T-S or even Mulcair back in Outremont 2007.

[adma]

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Keep in mind that the vast bulk of those polling stations are apartment/condo "400s".

One thing I'd *really* be curious about, given the parties' and candidates' relative positioning, is the Toronto Island result--somehow, I can't see Islanders bloc-voting against Adam Vaughan the way they would against "regular" Liberal candidates.  Not that he'd win Toronto Island in the end; but there's a good chance of there being the shallowest "differential" from the riding mean in ages there...

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you think there's a chance that the islands weren't the NDP's best poll? I wouldn't take that bet.

[adma]

Do you think there's a chance that the islands weren't the NDP's best poll? I wouldn't take that bet.

I wouldn't, either.  But that's not the same as saying there might be a shallower differential than normal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe, but Adam Vaughan's ward doesn't even cover Toronto Island.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

It makes sense I guess. Middle class Chinese people are the right wing equivalent to working class whites. i.e. People who should be voting for us but aren't. The Tories have turned down their cultural rhetoric in the past 10-15 years so the non-economic reasons against voting Tory have dissipated.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

People who should be voting for us but aren't.

[King of Kensington]

Among the major visible minority communities, I believe the federal Tories did best among the Chinese and Filipinos in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

Filipinos? I don't think so. But then again, the only strong Filipino neighbourhoods I know of are in north Winnipeg.

[King of Kensington]

They're very socially conservative and church-going.  Lots in Eg-Law and York Centre in Toronto as well as Van Kingsway, but they're more residentially dispersed than most ethnic communities so it's harder to isolate the Filipino vote.  Unfortunately there's no "Filipino vote" in the Ipsos exit poll but I'm sure if we look at visible minorities born in East Asia that are Catholic that would be a majority-Fiipino sample. 

L'Amareoux's social conservatism likely plays well in north Winnipeg's Filipino community.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

People who should be voting for us but aren't.

Thought I made my sarcasm clear enough, but obviously not... Yes I realize that economics is not the be all and end all.

[adma]

I'm also wondering if local representation plays a part in Scar-Agincourt's case, i.e. the more "Chinese" polls benefit from Tory Mike Del Grande's municipal machine, while Liberal Norm Kelly dominates the SW...

[trebor204]

Still waiting for the final 3 polls (must by Special Voting Rules or Advance Voting ) from Macleod. I wonder if the CHP candidate will overtake the NDP. Right now there is a 3 vote by the NDP.

[DL]

In BC the NDP tends to do very well with Filipinos (the one Filipina MLA is the NDP's Mabel Elmore who is also openly lesbian) and the Manitoba NDP practically owns the Filipino vote as well.

[King of Kensington]

It will be interesting to see to what extent of the overlap between Cressy/Marchese voters and Vaughan/Dong voters in Trinity-Spadina - in terms of geography, ward boundaries (19 and 20 - Mike Layton vs. Vaughan), ethnicity (two anglo males federally, an Italian Canadian New Democrat vs. a Chinese Canadian Liberal provincially).  There was a bit of a difference between Olivia Chow's and Rosario Marchese's supporters over the years - Chow had more of the Chinese vote and did relatively better in the east while Marchese depended more on the Portuguese and Italian communities and did relatively better in the west.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

People who should be voting for us but aren't.

Thought I made my sarcasm clear enough, but obviously not... Yes I realize that economics is not the be all and end all.

My annoyance comes from the fact that the Tories aren't necessarily the best party for the middle class in terms of economics either.